4:45 Ascot
This Class 3 fillies' handicap over a straight mile at Ascot brings together a competitive field of ten on good to firm ground. The KTB Fit scores are tightly bunched at the top, with Rosa Inglesa heading the numbers on 70 and Nanino Niyati close behind on 69, while the remainder sit in the mid-50s. Several runners bring placed form at the track or trip, and the class moves are split between those dropping in grade and others stepping up, setting up a race where course experience and adaptability to the surface could prove decisive.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape suggests a truly-run contest with a mix of front-runners and prominent types likely to contest the early fractions. Rosa Inglesa from stall 10 and Sprightly Dance are expected to be forward, while Thaluna and Celestra from lower draws could also take up positions close to the pace. The key question is whether the prominent runners can dictate matters on this quick surface or if the race will fall to a strong traveller from mid-division, with the straight course at Ascot often rewarding those who time their effort well in the final furlong.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Rosa Inglesa KTB Selection70/100Fair performer who has shown useful form this year with a win and two placed efforts from her last three starts.
- 2Nanino Niyati69/100Fair performer who showed his best this year when winning a handicap over 1m2f last time.
- 3Thaluna59/100Thaluna is a fair 3-year-old who has shown steady progress and finished a solid second on her only previous visit to Ascot.
- 4Blingy's Sister57/100Fair performer who has shown consistent placed form at this trip including a solid effort when fourth over course and distance on her most recent start.
- 5Sprightly Dance56/100Sprightly Dance is a fair performer who has shown consistent form, finishing no worse than third in all four starts and placing twice at this trip.
- 6Harlequin Breeze56/100Fair performer who has already won over this trip on good to firm.
- 7Hot And Cold54/100Fair performer who showed progressive form as a juvenile and has already won twice this year including over this trip.
- 8Revelance53/100Revelance is a fair sort who has won over this trip and on good to firm ground.
- 9Celestra53/100Fair sort who has been consistent this year with form figures of 22-231 and has already won over this trip on good to firm.
- 10Star Of Dubai38/100Modest performer who has shown bits of ability on his better days but has failed to win for over a year now.
The contenders
Rosa Inglesa KTB Fit 70/100
Rosa Inglesa arrives as the KTB selection with a Fit score of 70. A fair performer, she has shown useful form this year with a win and two placed efforts from her last three starts. She has already placed here at Ascot and has won at today's trip though the small overall sample leaves her going preferences unconfirmed. The trainer holds a solid record at the track while the jockey is operating at a strong strike rate. Dropping in class looks a positive, and her placed efforts on good to firm ground underline her competitiveness on the surface. From draw 10 she is likely to be prominent early, which could be an asset if the pace shape allows her to control proceedings.
Nanino Niyati KTB Fit 69/100
Nanino Niyati carries a KTB Fit score of 69 and is a fair performer who showed his best this year when winning a handicap over 1m2f last time. He drops back to 1m today having failed to land a blow at the trip on his only previous attempt and he was only fourth of six when he tried this track on his penultimate start. The trainer has a 17% strike rate at Ascot while the jockey matches that with an A/E of 1.2 from his 50 rides here. Stepping up in class is the main concern, although his two wins from five runs on good to firm suggest the surface will hold no fears. From draw 6 he should be able to secure a decent early position.
Thaluna KTB Fit 59/100
Thaluna is rated with a KTB Fit score of 59. A fair 3-year-old who has shown steady progress, she finished a solid second on her only previous visit to Ascot. She has placed at this trip from her one attempt and holds strong course connections through the yard. The small sample on today's going leaves that side untested while the trainer's 13 percent strike rate from 854 runs at the track and the jockey's 10 percent from 128 rides provide a reliable platform. Stepping up in class is the next test, yet her recent placed form and draw 3 position should allow her to race prominently and track the leaders.
Blingy's Sister KTB Fit 57/100
Blingy's Sister has a KTB Fit score of 57. A fair performer who has shown consistent placed form at this trip including a solid effort when fourth over course and distance on her most recent start. She has the benefit of race fitness and course experience but the yard's modest 7% strike rate at Ascot suggests she will need to improve to trouble the principals. Dropping in class is in her favour and she has placed on good to firm. From draw 9 she is expected to be forward in the run, which could help her maintain her position if the early pace is genuine.
Sprightly Dance KTB Fit 56/100
Sprightly Dance is given a KTB Fit score of 56. A fair performer who has shown consistent form, finishing no worse than third in all four starts and placing twice at this trip. The first-time headgear is an interesting addition given the yard's solid 12% strike rate at Ascot from a big sample. Jack Mitchell also strikes at 12% here from 82 rides. Stepping up in class is the obvious question mark, and she remains unproven on good to firm ground. With no course form on record she will need to overcome that absence of experience, but her prominent run-style could see her involved early from draw 8.
The rest of the field
Harlequin BreezeKTB Fit 56/100
Harlequin Breeze has a KTB Fit score of 56. A fair performer who has already won over this trip on good to firm. Has course experience but finished a remote last of 28 here on his only visit and his recent form is patchy with a heavy defeat last time. The trainer holds a solid record at Ascot while the jockey is much less effective at the track. Dropping in class may help.
Hot And ColdKTB Fit 54/100
Hot And Cold carries a KTB Fit score of 54. A fair performer who showed progressive form as a juvenile and has already won twice this year including over this trip. Prescott is 12% at Ascot from 146 runs while Morris is operating at 7% from 272 rides here. Good-to-firm ground clearly suits and the yard will have him ready. Stepping up in class is the next step.
RevelanceKTB Fit 53/100
Revelance is rated with a KTB Fit score of 53. A fair sort who has won over this trip and on good to firm ground. He showed useful form last season yet has been below that level on his two starts this year. The trainer has an 8 percent strike rate at Ascot from 453 runs while the jockey is 6 percent from 34 rides here. Stepping up in class adds to the task.
CelestraKTB Fit 53/100
Celestra has a KTB Fit score of 53. A fair sort who has been consistent this year with form figures of 22-231 and has already won over this trip on good to firm. Stall one could be an advantage at Ascot and the first-time headgear is another plus. The trainer has a solid 13% strike rate here from 309 runs while the jockey is operating at 6% from 53 rides. Stepping up in class is the main concern.
Star Of DubaiKTB Fit 38/100
Star Of Dubai is the lowest rated on KTB Fit with a score of 38. A modest performer who has shown bits of ability on his better days but has failed to win for over a year now. He drops back to his winning trip of 1m having last run over 1m2f and has been competitive on good to firm ground. The trainer and jockey both have modest records here at Ascot and the horse himself could only manage sixth on his sole run at the track. Stepping up in class looks a stiff assignment.
KTB verdict
Rosa Inglesa stands out as the KTB Selection. She has already shown useful form this season with a win and two placed efforts from her last three starts, she has placed over course and distance, and dropping in class looks ideal. The trainer's solid record at Ascot and the jockey's strong strike rate at the track further strengthen her claims, while her prominent style should suit the likely pace. Nanino Niyati and Thaluna head the dangers, with the former in good heart after a recent 1m2f success and the latter boasting strong course form from her sole visit. Blingy's Sister and Sprightly Dance cannot be entirely dismissed if the race falls their way, but the selection has the clearest profile.
KTB Selection Rosa Inglesa
This is the narrative read of the 4:45 Ascot. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Ascot racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has already placed over course and distance at Ascot?
Rosa Inglesa finished third on her only run here while Blingy's Sister was fourth over course and distance last time.
Who is stepping up in class from a recent 1m2f win?
Nanino Niyati won over 1m2f last time but steps back to 1m having failed to land a blow at the trip previously.
Which runners are making their first attempt in first-time headgear?
Sprightly Dance and Celestra are both fitted with first-time headgear.
Which horse has the strongest jockey record at Ascot according to the A/E figures?
Kaiya Fraser on Rosa Inglesa has a 25% strike rate and A/E of 1.74 from 12 rides at the track.
Who has won twice already this season including over this trip?
Hot And Cold has won twice this year including over 1m and clearly suits good to firm ground.
18+. Analysis and entertainment only — no guarantee of profit. KTB race previews are published for interest and are not betting advice. Only ever stake what you can comfortably afford to lose, and set your own limits. Free, confidential help: the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133 (GamCare.org.uk); in Ireland, the GamblingCare.ie helpline on 1800 936 725. Self-exclude at any time via GAMSTOP.
More from Kickthebookies