5:20 Ascot
A competitive Class 4 handicap over seven furlongs at Ascot on good to firm ground brings together an 18-runner field where several runners arrive with questions to answer. The KTB Fit scores are tightly bunched at the top, with Luansobe heading the numbers on 66, followed closely by Port Road and Documenting on 63, while the remainder sit in the low-to-mid 50s and below. Several hold placed form at the track without winning, and with a number unproven on the surface or stepping up or down in class, the race looks open.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape suggests a fairly even gallop with a handful of prominent runners and others who race more patiently. Luansobe from stall 5 and Winston's Warrior in stall 6 are likely to be forward, while Havana Blue from a low draw and Oceti in stall 1 could also take up early positions. The key question is whether the race will be won from the front or if those coming from off the pace, such as Documenting and Northcliff, can pick up the pieces in the straight.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Luansobe KTB Selection66/100Fair performer who has already won over this trip.
- 2Port Road63/100Port Road is a fair performer who has won once from nine starts at this trip.
- 3Documenting63/100Documenting is a fair 13-year-old who has been placed on his last two starts and has won five times at this trip.
- 4Enola Grey55/100Enola Grey is a fair handicapper who has been out of form for some time with four modest efforts since her last win.
- 5Cancan In The Rain55/100Fair performer who arrives in decent nick after a solid fourth at this track over a mile last time.
- 6Havana Blue50/100Havana Blue is a fair performer who has been consistent enough without winning for some time.
- 7Daring Legend50/100Fair performer who has been out of the frame on all three starts at this track and looks up against it from stall 14.
- 8Winston's Warrior50/100Fair performer who has won over today's trip but was well held on his only previous visit to Ascot.
- 9Arantes Nascimento48/100Fair performer who has been consistent of late with a string of placed efforts.
- 10Northcliff47/100Modest performer with a solid record here, having won two of four starts at Ascot.
- 11Red Hat Eagle47/100Modest performer who has been largely out of form this year with a string of modest efforts.
- 12Sponsor47/100Fair performer who has shown some ability on his two placed efforts including over this trip.
- 13Be Frank45/100Modest performer who has shown little spark in five runs this year and was well held when last seen at this track.
- 14Oceti45/100Modest performer who has shown little in four starts and was well held when last seen over 6f.
- 15North View44/100Modest performer with a solid placed record over this course but no win in three runs here.
- 16Ararat39/100Modest performer who has been consistent enough without winning for a while, placing on two of five runs on good to firm.
- 17Beauty By My Side39/100Modest performer who has struggled since landing a handicap at this trip last summer.
- 18Lunario37/100Modest performer who has been out of form for some time with four poor efforts this year.
The contenders
Luansobe KTB Fit 66/100
Luansobe is a fair performer who has already won over this trip. His recent form of 20-10 shows he can mix it at this level though consistency remains a slight concern. He drops in class here which should suit. The trainer records a solid 9 percent strike rate at Ascot while the jockey has an excellent 25 percent record from limited rides here. He is unproven on good to firm and has no course form on record, but from a favourable draw in stall 5 he is expected to go well. As the KTB Selection he is taken to come out on top.
Port Road KTB Fit 63/100
Port Road is a fair performer who has won once from nine starts at this trip. He arrives in decent form having won two of his last four starts but has never run at Ascot in 22 career outings and has no experience on good to firm ground. The trainer's modest 6 percent strike rate from 204 runs at the track is offset by the jockey's solid 14 percent from his small sample here. From his draw in stall 11 he will need to show he handles conditions and the venue if he is to figure prominently.
Documenting KTB Fit 63/100
Documenting is a fair 13-year-old who has been placed on his last two starts and has won five times at this trip. He has run seven times at Ascot without winning but has been placed here, while his record on good to firm is modest with just one win from 17 starts. The yard has no previous runners at the track but Jack Mitchell has a solid 12 percent strike rate from 82 rides here. Stepping up in class, his placed course form gives him each-way claims if he can reproduce his best.
Enola Grey KTB Fit 55/100
Enola Grey is a fair handicapper who has been out of form for some time with four modest efforts since her last win. She drops back to her winning trip today having been competitive on good to firm in the past though she is yet to score on it. This is her first run at Ascot for a trainer with a solid 13 percent strike rate here while the jockey is operating at a 6 percent level from 32 rides. From a wide draw in stall 17 she will need to bounce back to be competitive.
Cancan In The Rain KTB Fit 55/100
Cancan In The Rain is a fair performer who arrives in decent nick after a solid fourth at this track over a mile last time. Dropping back to 7f is a plus as he has won twice at the trip from nine attempts, though the first-time headgear adds an unknown. He has a 2-9 record on good to firm and was placed on his only previous run at Ascot. Stall 12 is a negative on this straight course and the lack of an Ascot record for the trainer adds to the unknowns.
The rest of the field
Havana BlueKTB Fit 50/100
Havana Blue is a fair performer who has been consistent enough without winning for some time. He ran poorly when tried here once before and is now dropping back from a mile to a trip where he has won three times from 21 starts. The yard holds a modest 7% strike rate at Ascot from 27 runs while the jockey is 8% from 12 rides.
Daring LegendKTB Fit 50/100
Daring Legend is a fair performer who has been out of the frame on all three starts at this track and looks up against it from stall 14. He has won on good to firm but his recent form is modest and the yard has yet to trouble the judge from six runs here. Luke Morris has a solid enough record at Ascot but this one needs a revival.
Winston's WarriorKTB Fit 50/100
Winston's Warrior is a fair performer who has won over today's trip but was well held on his only previous visit to Ascot. He drops back from 1m having looked stretched at that distance last time, which should suit, though the yard's modest 7% strike-rate here from a big sample is a negative. Jockey is also winless from eight rides at the track.
Arantes NascimentoKTB Fit 48/100
Arantes Nascimento is a fair performer who has been consistent of late with a string of placed efforts. He steps up to 7f for the first time in a while having won at the trip earlier in his career though his only run here was a modest sixth. Trainer remains without a winner from 75 runs at Ascot while the jockey has a solid record at the track.
NorthcliffKTB Fit 47/100
Northcliff is a modest performer with a solid record here, having won two of four starts at Ascot. He has won twice over today's trip but steps up in distance today from 6f, while his recent form has been patchy with a win and a fourth mixed in among some poor efforts. The yard has yet to strike at this track from five runs, though the jockey has a respectable 10% strike rate from 50 rides.
Red Hat EagleKTB Fit 47/100
Red Hat Eagle is a modest performer who has been largely out of form this year with a string of modest efforts. He has placed twice at this trip without winning and has won once from seven starts on good to firm ground so conditions should be fine. First-time headgear is tried while the trainer's modest record at Ascot offers little encouragement.
SponsorKTB Fit 47/100
Sponsor is a fair performer who has shown some ability on his two placed efforts including over this trip. Dropping back from 1m should suit and the first-time headgear is an interesting addition given his exposed recent form of 94300. Both trainer and jockey have modest strike rates at Ascot.
Be FrankKTB Fit 45/100
Be Frank is a modest performer who has shown little spark in five runs this year and was well held when last seen at this track. He has won on good to firm and at today's trip but his record here reads 0-2 with no placed efforts and the wide draw in stall 16 is no help. First-time headgear is now applied.
OcetiKTB Fit 45/100
Oceti is a modest performer who has shown little in four starts and was well held when last seen over 6f. He steps up to 7f today which asks a fresh question while the yard's modest 7% strike rate from 759 runs at Ascot and the jockey's 4% from 273 rides here offer no encouragement. Stall one could help but overall this looks like another tough assignment.
North ViewKTB Fit 44/100
North View is a modest performer with a solid placed record over this course but no win in three runs here. He drops back to 7f having won at the trip in the past though his recent form is patchy and the yard's record at Ascot is poor. First-time headgear is an unknown on good to firm ground where he has shown some ability.
AraratKTB Fit 39/100
Ararat is a modest performer who has been consistent enough without winning for a while, placing on two of five runs on good to firm. He has won at this trip from 15 attempts and the recent form figures show he can still be competitive at this level. Trainer and jockey are both 0-6 at Ascot while this is the horse's first run here.
Beauty By My SideKTB Fit 39/100
Beauty By My Side is a modest performer who has struggled since landing a handicap at this trip last summer. Dropping back from 1m should suit but he was well held on his only previous visit to Ascot and the wide draw in stall 15 is far from ideal. Jockey Benoit de la Sayette has a modest 6% strike rate from 53 rides here while trainer Joseph Parr has only four runs at the track so far.
LunarioKTB Fit 37/100
Lunario is a modest performer who has been out of form for some time with four poor efforts this year. He drops back to 7f where he has won twice from nine starts though he has never won beyond 6f in recent seasons and the wide draw in stall 18 is a clear negative. First-time headgear is reached for while the trainer remains winless from 27 runs at Ascot.
KTB verdict
Luansobe is the KTB Selection and looks to have the best blend of ability, trainer and jockey form at the track. His win over this trip and the drop in class are plus points, and the excellent record of Kaiya Fraser at Ascot adds to the appeal from a good draw. Documenting brings the best course placed form and cannot be dismissed despite his age, while Port Road and Cancan In The Rain are next best on recent efforts. The race could be decided by how those up with the pace handle the straight and whether any off-pace runners can close effectively.
KTB Selection Luansobe
This is the narrative read of the 5:20 Ascot. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Ascot racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the best recent course form at Ascot?
Documenting has been placed on one of his seven starts at Ascot, while Northcliff has won two of his four runs here.
Who is unproven on good to firm ground?
Luansobe, Port Road and Oceti have no runs on good to firm.
Which runners are wearing headgear for the first time?
Cancan In The Rain, Red Hat Eagle, Sponsor, Be Frank, North View and Lunario are all in first-time headgear.
Which horse steps up in class?
Documenting, Arantes Nascimento, Northcliff, Red Hat Eagle, Oceti, Beauty By My Side and Ararat are all stepping up in class.
Who has the strongest jockey record at Ascot?
Kaiya Fraser has a 25 percent strike rate at Ascot from 12 rides.
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