5:20 Windsor
A small but competitive Class 4 nursery over the minimum trip at Windsor on good to firm ground brings together three juveniles with contrasting profiles. The KTB Fit scores separate them only modestly, with Jaijai heading the numbers on 59, followed by Undercover Affair on 50 and Terminology on 49. Recent form, trip suitability and draw will all come into play in what looks a tight renewal.
How the race shapes up
With three runners and all tending to race prominently or on the speed, the pace shape is expected to be on the strong side early on. Jaijai from stall 3 and Terminology in stall 2 are both likely to be forward, while Undercover Affair from the inside draw will also be close to the pace. The key question is whether the early speed burns itself out or whether one of these can dictate and kick on turning for home.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Jaijai KTB Selection59/100Fair sort who showed improved form to win a 5f maiden here last month before finishing second in a nursery at Goodwood.
- 2Undercover Affair50/100Undercover Affair is a fair 2yo with solid recent form including a win at today's trip.
- 3Terminology49/100Terminology has shown fair ability in two starts and looks nicely drawn in stall 2.
The contenders
Jaijai KTB Fit 59/100
Jaijai is a fair sort who showed improved form to win a 5f maiden here last month before finishing second in a nursery at Goodwood. He has the speed for this trip and is drawn nicely in stall 3. The Richard Hannon yard posts a 15 percent strike rate at Windsor from a large sample, which is solid, though the trainer and jockey combination shows an 11 percent strike rate overall with an A/E of 0.80. This 2-year-old has been placed once from one run on good to firm, proving competitive if not yet a winner on the surface. With recent form figures of 621 and a KTB Fit of 59, he is the one to beat.
Undercover Affair KTB Fit 50/100
Undercover Affair is a fair 2yo with solid recent form including a win at today's trip. He has shown enough on good to firm to handle the ground but his sole run on it brought no win or place. The David Evans yard has a 10 percent strike rate at Windsor from a big sample which is about average, and the trainer and jockey combination records a 16 percent strike rate with an A/E of 0.95. Oisin Murphy takes the ride on a horse making its first start here, adding notable strength to the booking given the jockey's 19 percent strike rate at the track. Recent form figures of 221423 and a KTB Fit of 50 suggest he will be in the mix once more.
Terminology KTB Fit 49/100
Terminology has shown fair ability in two starts and looks nicely drawn in stall 2. He has already won on this ground and at today's trip which are both plus points at this stage of his career. The Archie Watson yard has a 13 percent strike rate at Windsor which is modest, while the trainer and jockey combination shows a 21 percent strike rate with an A/E of 0.89. James Doyle is in the saddle and this 2-year-old has a win from one run on good to firm. With recent form figures of 31 and a KTB Fit of 49 he cannot be ruled out in this small field.
KTB verdict
Jaijai is the KTB Selection. He brings the best recent progression, having won a 5f maiden at this track before running creditably in a nursery at Goodwood, and the combination of speed, a favourable draw in stall 3 and Hannon's respectable record at Windsor makes him the one to beat. Undercover Affair has the most experience and a strong jockey booking in Oisin Murphy, while Terminology brings unbeaten good-to-firm form and a good draw of his own. It may not take much improvement for any of the three to prevail, but Jaijai looks best placed to dictate matters.
KTB Selection Jaijai
This is the narrative read of the 5:20 Windsor. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Windsor racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has won over the course and distance?
None of the three runners has a course-and-distance win on record.
How many runs has Jaijai had on good to firm ground?
Jaijai has been placed once from one run on good to firm.
What is the trainer strike rate at Windsor for the yard of the selection?
Richard Hannon has a 15 percent strike rate at Windsor from 785 runs.
Which runner has the strongest recent form figures?
Undercover Affair has the most runs with recent form figures of 221423.
Who rides the horse with a 19 percent strike rate at Windsor?
Oisin Murphy rides Undercover Affair and has a 19 percent strike rate at Windsor.
18+. Analysis and entertainment only — no guarantee of profit. KTB race previews are published for interest and are not betting advice. Only ever stake what you can comfortably afford to lose, and set your own limits. Free, confidential help: the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133 (GamCare.org.uk); in Ireland, the GamblingCare.ie helpline on 1800 936 725. Self-exclude at any time via GAMSTOP.
More from Kickthebookies