5:50 Windsor
This Class 4 novice stakes over 1m31y at Windsor on good to firm ground brings together an 11-runner field of largely unexposed three-year-olds. The KTB Fit ratings are tightly bunched at the top, with two horses sharing the highest mark of 55 while the remainder sit between 52 and 43. Several runners arrive with limited racecourse experience, making this a race where yard form at the track, run-style and how the trip suits will be key factors in shaping the outcome.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape suggests a fairly even tempo with a mix of prominent runners and those who prefer to come from off the pace. Leonardo Blu is drawn widest in stall 11 and has shown a forward style, while Levens Hall from stall 1 and Colonnade in stall 4 are likely to be handy. The key question is whether the race will be run at a pace that allows the hold-up performers such as Diane Chasseresse to close effectively or whether the prominent types can dictate matters from the front.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Leonardo Blu55/100Lightly raced with just two runs this year but already has a win over today's trip on his record.
- 2Diane Chasseresse KTB Selection55/100Lightly raced after just two runs she showed fair form when fifth on debut then stepped up to finish sixth last time.
- 3Elsa Tan52/100Elsa Tan was well beaten on debut over 7f and steps up in trip today for a yard with a 9% strike rate at Windsor from 264 runs.
- 4Colonnade52/100Colonnade is a debutant with a first-time headgear fitted.
- 5Levens Hall51/100Levens Hall showed fair promise when third on debut over this trip.
- 6Heir Of Ambition50/100Heir Of Ambition has shown very little in two starts so far finishing fifth on this track last time.
- 7Asset48/100Asset has shown fair form in three runs this year, finishing third on debut then runner-up twice since, though he drops back in trip today after his latest effo…
- 8Esplanade48/100Esplanade is a first-time runner from a yard that operates at a solid 14% strike rate at Windsor from a big sample.
- 9Champagne Beau45/100Champagne Beau showed little on his sole start when ninth over this trip at Windsor.
- 10Adalo44/100Adalo has shown little in two starts to date finishing seventh then sixth on this track last time.
- 11Next Guilian43/100Lightly raced 3 year old with only three runs and a modest profile so far.
The contenders
Leonardo Blu KTB Fit 55/100
Leonardo Blu has only two runs to his name this year yet already boasts a win over today's trip. His recent form figures of 21 underline the promise he has shown and he is drawn in stall 11. Tom Clover brings a 15 percent strike rate at Windsor from 92 runs and a solid trainer-jockey combination with Oisin Murphy, who himself holds a 19 percent strike rate at the track from 670 rides. The colt has been placed once from one run on good to firm and remains competitive without a win on that surface. With light racing and a win already in the book he is entitled to plenty of respect.
Diane Chasseresse KTB Fit 55/100
Diane Chasseresse has had just two runs and displayed fair form when finishing fifth on debut before stepping up to sixth last time out. The 1m trip poses a fresh question today and with only a small sample of runs her suitability to good to firm remains unproven. Owen Burrows has an excellent 32 percent strike rate at Windsor from 25 runs, giving the yard a strong local record even if Saffie Osborne's own 9 percent strike rate at the venue from 192 rides is more modest. Lightly raced and open to improvement, she represents a yard that clearly targets this meeting with success.
Elsa Tan KTB Fit 52/100
Elsa Tan was well beaten on her debut over 7f and now steps up in trip as well as in class. The yard posts a 9 percent strike rate at Windsor from 264 runs while Benoit de la Sayette has a strong 23 percent strike rate at the track from 61 rides. She has no experience of good to firm ground, leaving both her ability and the trip as open questions after just one run. With so little to go on this has to be viewed as very much a watching brief at this stage.
Colonnade KTB Fit 52/100
Colonnade makes his debut with first-time headgear applied. The Simon and Ed Crisford yard has a solid 22 percent strike rate at Windsor from 95 runs and Jack Mitchell takes the ride with a 12 percent strike rate at the venue from 321 rides. By Teofilo, he has no course form and only the pedigree and the yard's local record to recommend him. With no racecourse experience and low data confidence his chance is essentially judged on those factors alone.
Levens Hall KTB Fit 51/100
Levens Hall showed fair promise when finishing third on debut over this trip. The John and Thady Gosden yard has a 32 percent strike rate at Windsor from 85 runs although Robert Havlin's own 8 percent strike rate at the track from 551 rides is more modest. He has no experience of good to firm ground, leaving his effectiveness on it unproven after just one run. With only that single piece of form on the board any firm view remains impossible.
The rest of the field
Heir Of AmbitionKTB Fit 50/100
Heir Of Ambition has shown very little in two starts, finishing fifth at this track last time. The yard has a modest 9 percent strike rate at Windsor from 23 runs and with only two career runs and no standout positives this remains a horse that needs to improve markedly.
AssetKTB Fit 48/100
Asset has shown fair form across three runs, finishing third on debut and runner-up twice since, though he drops back in trip today after racing over 1m2f last time. He has run once at this distance without success and the Prescott yard has a 12 percent strike rate at Windsor from 124 runs.
EsplanadeKTB Fit 48/100
Esplanade is a debutant from a yard with a solid 14 percent strike rate at Windsor from 349 runs. With no racecourse form available and low data confidence he has to be judged almost entirely on pedigree and the stable's local record.
Champagne BeauKTB Fit 45/100
Champagne Beau showed little when ninth over this trip at Windsor on his only start. The yard's modest 7 percent strike rate at the track from a large sample offers no particular encouragement and with only one run on the board this is very much a watching brief.
AdaloKTB Fit 44/100
Adalo has shown little in two starts, finishing seventh then sixth at this track last time. He drops back to 1m with first-time headgear now applied and the William Haggas yard has a 20 percent strike rate at Windsor from 453 runs.
Next GuilianKTB Fit 43/100
Next Guilian is a lightly raced three-year-old with only three runs and a modest profile so far. He finished eighth at this track over today's trip last time and has failed to place in two runs at the distance while the yard has a 10 percent strike rate at Windsor from 794 runs.
KTB verdict
The KTB Selection is Diane Chasseresse. She has shown fair form in her two starts to date and represents a yard with a very strong 32 percent strike rate at Windsor. Although the trip is a new question and her going profile is based on limited evidence she has the benefit of a low draw and the stable's excellent record at the venue. The main dangers are Leonardo Blu, who already has a win over the trip and is ridden by Oisin Murphy, and Levens Hall, who shaped with promise on debut for the powerful Gosden yard. Colonnade and Asset are others who could improve past some of these on their respective pedigrees and recent placed efforts.
KTB Selection Diane Chasseresse
This is the narrative read of the 5:50 Windsor. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Windsor racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the strongest trainer record at Windsor in this field?
Diane Chasseresse's trainer Owen Burrows has a 32 percent strike rate at Windsor from 25 runs.
Which runners have previous course form at Windsor?
Heir Of Ambition has finished fifth once here, Champagne Beau has finished ninth once here, Adalo has finished sixth once here and Next Guilian has finished eighth once here.
Who has already won over today's 1m trip?
Leonardo Blu has a win over today's trip on his record.
Which horses are wearing headgear for the first time?
Colonnade and Adalo are both fitted with first-time headgear.
Which horse is stepping up in class for this race?
Elsa Tan is stepping up in class.
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