3:57 Leicester
This Class 6 handicap over seven furlongs at Leicester features a small but competitive field of six three-year-olds, most of whom are modest performers with mixed recent form. The KTB Fit scores are tightly bunched at the top, with Auspicious just heading the numbers on 54, followed closely by Musical Soldier, Lope Y Linda and Poetic Grace. All six runners are unproven on the ground, adding an element of uncertainty, while several make their first visit to Leicester and step up in trip.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape suggests a fairly even gallop with no pronounced front-running bias. Musical Soldier and Lope Y Linda are likely to be forward, while Auspicious from stall one and Poetic Grace can track the leaders. The key question is whether the extra furlong will suit those stepping up from six, and how the first-time headgear on several runners will influence their ability to settle and produce a finishing effort.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Auspicious KTB Selection54/100Auspicious is a limited horse who has shown mixed form this year with a win and a second from ten runs.
- 2Musical Soldier52/100Musical Soldier is a limited horse who has shown mixed form across 11 runs, including a win at this trip from four attempts.
- 3Lope Y Linda48/100Lope Y Linda is a limited performer who has shown mixed form this year with two wins from 13 runs.
- 4Poetic Grace47/100Poetic Grace is a limited performer who has shown ordinary form at this level with a string of minor placings.
- 5Gal41/100Limited horse who has shown very little in five runs to date.
- 6Arvana Belle39/100Limited filly who has shown very little in three starts this year and remains modest at best on her handicap form.
The contenders
Auspicious KTB Fit 54/100
Auspicious is a limited horse who has shown mixed form this year with a win and a second from ten runs. He steps up to 7f for the first time today which asks a fresh question of him while his first run at Leicester is simply unknown. The trainer holds a 12% strike rate here from 214 runs. Alex Jary takes the ride with a strong 17% strike rate at the track from just six rides. Recent form of 735120 includes solid placed efforts, though the trip remains untested. Drawn in stall one, he should get a nice position early.
Musical Soldier KTB Fit 52/100
Musical Soldier is a limited horse who has shown mixed form across 11 runs, including a win at this trip from four attempts. He makes his first appearance at Leicester where the yard has failed to land a blow from ten runners. First-time headgear is now fitted on ground he has never tried. Charles Bishop is in the saddle with an 11% strike rate at Leicester. The recent sequence of 715202 shows consistency at a modest level. From draw five he is expected to be prominent in what looks an even-paced affair.
Lope Y Linda KTB Fit 48/100
Lope Y Linda is a limited performer who has shown mixed form this year with two wins from 13 runs. She has won twice at today's trip but her two efforts here read poorly and she remains unproven on this ground. The yard's modest 10% strike rate at Leicester offers no particular encouragement. Sean Kirrane rides, himself with a 10% strike rate at the venue. Form figures of 412012 confirm her ability to win at this level on her day. Drawn widest, her previous course efforts of fifth and ninth suggest she may find it hard to show her best here.
Poetic Grace KTB Fit 47/100
Poetic Grace is a limited performer who has shown ordinary form at this level with a string of minor placings. She steps up to 7f for the first time having been placed once at the trip without winning and the first-time headgear is an unknown. The yard has a solid 10% strike rate from 102 runs at Leicester. Darragh Keenan is aboard with a 10% strike rate at the track. Her recent form reads 9-4435, underlining steady but unspectacular efforts. From stall two she should be able to track the pace and see how the new headgear and distance affect her.
The rest of the field
GalKTB Fit 41/100
Gal is a limited horse who has shown very little in five runs to date. Steps up to 7f for the first time today having failed to make an impact at that trip on his last two starts. Trainer has a 5% strike rate from 104 runs at Leicester.
Arvana BelleKTB Fit 39/100
Arvana Belle is a limited filly who has shown very little in three starts this year and remains modest at best on her handicap form. First-time headgear is tried as she steps up to 7f for the first time having looked stretched at 6f last time. Millman has an 8% strike-rate at Leicester from 396 runs while this is her first run here.
KTB verdict
Auspicious is the KTB Selection. He brings a recent win and a second into the race, and the yard's respectable record at Leicester offers some encouragement despite his limitations and the unknown factors of trip and course. The first-time headgear on Musical Soldier and Poetic Grace, allied to their placed form, makes them the most obvious dangers in a race where several runners share similar levels of ability. Lope Y Linda's two wins at the trip are a plus but her poor course record counts against her, while the remainder of the field have shown very little and look up against it.
KTB Selection Auspicious
This is the narrative read of the 3:57 Leicester. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Leicester racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is making its first start at Leicester?
Auspicious, Musical Soldier, Poetic Grace, Gal and Arvana Belle are all making their first appearance at Leicester.
How many of these runners are stepping up to 7f for the first time?
Auspicious, Poetic Grace, Gal and Arvana Belle are all stepping up to 7f for the first time.
Which runners are wearing first-time headgear?
Musical Soldier, Poetic Grace and Arvana Belle are all fitted with first-time headgear.
Which horse has the best recent win record at today's trip?
Lope Y Linda has won twice at today's trip.
What is the trainer strike rate at Leicester for the yard of the selection?
Nigel Tinkler has a 12% strike rate at Leicester from 214 runs.
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