5:09 Killarney
This Irish Stallion Farms EBF Fillies Maiden over 1m0f30y at Killarney features a field of seven with limited depth and plenty of unknowns. The KTB Fit Scores are headed by Celtic Motif on 60, with the rest of the field bunched between 48 and 40, underlining the modest standard of the contest. Most runners are unproven on the ground and several are stepping up or down in trip, while the lack of course form for the majority adds another layer of uncertainty to the 5:09.
How the race shapes up
The race is expected to be run at an even gallop with no pronounced pace bias according to the shape. Celtic Motif from stall 1 and Taj Crown from stall 2 are both likely to be prominent or on the speed, while the others are largely mid-division or held-up types. The key question is whether the first-time headgear can sharpen Celtic Motif sufficiently to see off the challenge of those stepping up in trip or making their debut.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Celtic Motif KTB Selection60/100Useful performer who showed promise when third on return at this track last month.
- 2Glittering Gem48/100Glittering Gem has only two runs on the board and showed little in either of them.
- 3Rest Your Mind47/100Rest Your Mind has shown little in three starts to date with a best effort of sixth and now steps up markedly in trip as a fresh question.
- 4Acanto45/100Acanto has only one run to his name and that was a modest fifth over 7f.
- 5Taj Crown42/100Modest performer who has shown bits of ability in recent starts but remains winless after five runs.
- 6Capolinea42/100Capolinea is a debutant with no racecourse form to go on so the assessment rests on pedigree and sales background.
- 7Zesty Belle40/100Zesty Belle has shown only modest form in two starts to date and was beaten a long way on her latest outing.
The contenders
Celtic Motif KTB Fit 60/100
Celtic Motif is a useful performer who showed promise when third on return at this track last month. She has twice been tried over today's trip without success and now tries headgear for the first time. The Joseph Patrick O'Brien yard has an 18% strike rate at Killarney from a big sample of 438 runs, though the trainer and jockey combination reads 2/31 with an A/E of 0.32. Oisin Murphy has no recorded rides at the track, which is scored neutral. Unproven on the ground having had no runs on unknown going and with no previous course form beyond last month's effort, she remains the one to beat on what she has shown.
Glittering Gem KTB Fit 48/100
Glittering Gem has only two runs on the board and showed little in either of them. The drop back to an untested 1m asks a fresh question while the small sample makes any firm conclusions risky. Dermot Weld has a 23% strike rate at Killarney from 412 runs with an A/E of 1, and the trainer and jockey combination stands at 133/1109 with an A/E of 0.76. Chris Hayes has a 10% strike rate at the track from 320 rides with an A/E of 0.84. Unproven on the ground having had no runs on unknown going and with no course form on record, the lightly-raced filly is capable of better but the yard's recent form with her remains modest.
Rest Your Mind KTB Fit 47/100
Rest Your Mind has shown little in three starts to date with a best effort of sixth and now steps up markedly in trip as a fresh question. Gerard O'Leary has a 13% strike rate at Killarney from 31 runs with an A/E of 1.08, though the trainer and jockey combination is 0/8. Ben Coen has a 4% strike rate at the track from 81 rides with an A/E of 0.32. Unproven on the ground having had no runs on unknown going and with no course form on record, she needs to improve markedly on what has been seen so far given the small overall sample.
Acanto KTB Fit 45/100
Acanto has only one run to his name and that was a modest fifth over 7f. He now steps up to an untested 1m which asks a fresh question of him. Noel Meade has a 10% strike rate at Killarney from 158 runs with an A/E of 0.65, and the trainer and jockey combination reads 5/52 with an A/E of 1.17. Adam Caffrey has a 10% strike rate at the track from 21 rides with an A/E of 0.71. Unproven on the ground having had no runs on unknown going and with no course form on record, he is open to improvement but has plenty to find on that debut effort.
The rest of the field
Taj CrownKTB Fit 42/100
Taj Crown is a modest performer who has shown bits of ability in recent starts but remains winless after five runs. Dropping back from 1m4f to 1m asks a fresh question while first-time headgear is also an unknown. Ken Condon has a 10% strike rate at Killarney from 111 runs with an A/E of 0.96 and the trainer and jockey combination is 63/581 with an A/E of 0.78. Willie Lee has an 11% strike rate at the track from 379 rides with an A/E of 0.83. She has course form, having finished fifth here on her only visit.
CapolineaKTB Fit 42/100
Capolinea is a debutant with no racecourse form to go on so the assessment rests on pedigree and sales background. Patrick Magee has a 0% strike rate at Killarney from 13 runs while Gary Carroll has an 8% strike rate from 193 rides here with an A/E of 0.67. With a complete lack of public performance, data confidence is low.
Zesty BelleKTB Fit 40/100
Zesty Belle has shown only modest form in two starts to date and was beaten a long way on her latest outing. M O Quigley has a 0% strike rate at Killarney from 10 runs and the jockey Jack Cleary has a 5% strike rate from 19 rides here with an A/E of 0.58. Unproven on the ground having had no runs on unknown going and with no course form on record, she remains hard to assess with any confidence on a new trip.
KTB verdict
Celtic Motif is the KTB Selection. She showed promise when third on return at Killarney last month and the first-time headgear is a logical move after two previous attempts at this trip without success. Joseph Patrick O'Brien's solid 18% strike rate at the venue from a large sample gives every reason to expect a bold showing from stall 1. The main dangers are Glittering Gem, who can improve for the drop in trip despite limited form, and Acanto, who is open to progress stepping up to 1m after a modest debut. Rest Your Mind and the remainder of the field face stiff tasks on what they have shown to date.
KTB Selection Celtic Motif
This is the narrative read of the 5:09 Killarney. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Killarney racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is making its first start in headgear?
Celtic Motif and Taj Crown are both wearing first-time headgear.
How many previous runs has the selection had over this trip?
Celtic Motif has twice been tried over today's trip without success.
Which trainer has the strongest strike rate at Killarney in this field?
D K Weld has a 23% strike rate at Killarney from 412 runs.
Which runner is stepping up markedly in trip?
Rest Your Mind is stepping up markedly in trip from a best effort of sixth.
How many runs has Capolinea had on the racecourse?
Capolinea is a debutant with no racecourse form to go on.
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