2:07 Downpatrick
This ITBA Mares Maiden Hurdle at Downpatrick over 2m1f165y brings together a field of 12 with limited experience and several unknowns regarding trip and ground. The KTB Fit ratings are tightly bunched at the top, headed by Ritz Plan on 56, with Fastnet Crystal, Hello Below, Jet To Glory and Nelliestar completing the principals on scores from 54 down to 48. Several runners step up or drop in distance while first-time headgear appears on a handful, adding layers of uncertainty to a maiden that looks open on paper.
How the race shapes up
The race-level pace shape suggests a steady gallop with a mix of prominent racers and those who prefer to track the leaders. Ritz Plan and Hello Below are likely to be forward, while Fastnet Crystal in first-time headgear and Cool Native could also take a hand early. The key question is whether the step up or drop in trip for so many runners will expose stamina limitations or allow those with placed form to build on it in what could become a test of positioning from halfway.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Ritz Plan KTB Selection56/100Useful performer who showed consistent form last season with two seconds from three completed starts.
- 2Fastnet Crystal54/100Lightly raced and with only two runs to go on this 5-year-old needs to improve to be competitive.
- 3Hello Below50/100Hello Below has shown some promise with two placed efforts this year after an early pull-up but his form is based on just three completed starts and needs to im…
- 4Jet To Glory49/100Lightly raced with a modest recent record of P2-545 and only three runs in the last year.
- 5Nelliestar48/100Nelliestar is lightly raced with only 11 career starts and recent form that offers little to go on.
- 6Three Leaf Clover48/100Three Leaf Clover has shown very little in three starts to date and makes little appeal on the bare form.
- 7My Girl Rosie48/100My Girl Rosie has shown little in two starts to date, finishing eighth and ninth.
- 8Cool Native46/100Cool Native has shown ability in three runs, winning on debut before two creditable placed efforts.
- 9Bayonetta44/100Bayonetta is a useful performer who has been placed on three of her six runs at Downpatrick and arrives in decent form with a string of seconds and thirds.
- 10Jolly D'olivate42/100Jolly D'olivate is a debutant with no prior racecourse form to assess.
- 11Room For One More42/100Room For One More showed only modest form when sixth on debut over 2m.
- 12Mercurial Sea39/100Mercurial Sea is a fair performer who has shown his best form at this track, finishing second here on his most recent visit after an earlier eighth.
The contenders
Ritz Plan KTB Fit 56/100
Ritz Plan is a useful performer who showed consistent form last season with two seconds from three completed starts. The four-year-old steps up in trip today having last run over 2m and that asks a fresh question. Trainer S R B Crawford has a 6 percent strike rate at Downpatrick from 196 runs while jockey J J Slevin operates at 9 percent from 143 rides here. Recent form figures read 242-4 and the KTB Fit Score of 56 is the highest in the field. The trainer and jockey combination has produced a 10 percent strike rate from 406 runs together. Unproven on the ground having had no runs on unknown going.
Fastnet Crystal KTB Fit 54/100
Fastnet Crystal is lightly raced and with only two runs to go on this 5-year-old needs to improve to be competitive. The first-time headgear is an unknown that could help, while stepping up in trip for the first time asks a fresh question. Trainer Joseph Patrick O'Brien has a solid 25 percent strike rate from 48 runs at Downpatrick though jockey Richard Deegan is operating at a 7 percent strike rate from 58 rides here. Recent form figures read 20- and the KTB Fit Score is 54. The trainer and jockey have combined for a 13 percent strike rate from 64 runs with a positive A/E of 1.18. Unproven on the ground having had no runs on unknown going.
Hello Below KTB Fit 50/100
Hello Below has shown some promise with two placed efforts this year after an early pull-up but his form is based on just three completed starts and needs to improve to figure prominently here. The drop back in trip poses a fresh question while the small overall sample means his true level remains unclear. Colin Bowe has a solid 15 percent strike rate at Downpatrick from 139 runs while Ricky Doyle operates at 8 percent from 90 rides at the track. Recent form figures read 7P-226 and the KTB Fit Score is 50. The trainer and jockey have combined for a 17 percent strike rate from 41 runs with a positive A/E of 1.34. Unproven on the ground having had no runs on unknown going.
Jet To Glory KTB Fit 49/100
Jet To Glory is lightly raced with a modest recent record of P2-545 and only three runs in the last year. Dropping back in trip having been well held over further last time while the sole run here produced a remote fourth. Trainer John C McConnell holds a 12 percent strike rate from 302 runs at Downpatrick and the jockey Alex Harvey is operating at 11 percent from 72 rides. The KTB Fit Score is 49. The trainer and jockey have combined for a 10 percent strike rate from 355 runs with an A/E of 0.86. Unproven on the ground having had no runs on unknown going.
Nelliestar KTB Fit 48/100
Nelliestar is lightly raced with only 11 career starts and recent form that offers little to go on. The step up from 1m1½f to 2m1¾f asks a fresh question while the trainer and jockey both have no recorded runs or rides at Downpatrick. Data confidence is low so this one should be treated with caution. Recent form figures read /- and the KTB Fit Score is 48. The trainer Thomas Patrick McGettigan has an overall 0 percent strike rate from 7 runs. Unproven on the ground having had no runs on unknown going.
The rest of the field
Three Leaf CloverKTB Fit 48/100
Three Leaf Clover has shown very little in three starts to date and makes little appeal on the bare form. The first-time headgear is an unknown that could help but the small sample makes it hard to be confident either way. Trainer Dermot A McLoughlin has a 9 percent strike rate from 151 runs here while Alix Balfe is 10 percent from 10 rides at the track. Recent form figures read 000- and the KTB Fit Score is 48. The trainer and jockey have combined for a 0 percent strike rate from 17 runs.
My Girl RosieKTB Fit 48/100
My Girl Rosie has shown little in two starts to date, finishing eighth and ninth. The step up in trip is an unknown at this stage. Trainer and jockey both have solid records at Downpatrick. Recent form figures read 89 and the KTB Fit Score is 48. The trainer Ian Patrick Donoghue has a 10 percent strike rate from 71 runs here while the jockey is 19 percent from 16 rides.
Cool NativeKTB Fit 46/100
Cool Native has shown ability in three runs, winning on debut before two creditable placed efforts. He now drops back in trip to a distance he has never tried, which asks a fresh question of him, while first-time headgear is also applied. Gordon Elliott has an 18 percent strike rate from 922 runs here and Jack Kennedy a 19 percent strike rate from 165 rides. Recent form figures read 1/3U4- and the KTB Fit Score is 46. The trainer and jockey have combined for a 19 percent strike rate from 3374 runs.
BayonettaKTB Fit 44/100
Bayonetta is a useful performer who has been placed on three of her six runs at Downpatrick and arrives in decent form with a string of seconds and thirds. She drops back in trip today having been placed at this distance before, though she is unproven on the current ground and first-time headgear adds an unknown. The trainer's modest 4 percent strike rate at the track is a negative while the jockey has had too few rides here to judge. Recent form figures read P3-422 and the KTB Fit Score is 44.
Jolly D'olivateKTB Fit 42/100
Jolly D'olivate is a debutant with no prior racecourse form to assess. The pedigree and sales background offer the only clues but data confidence remains low so any read is tentative. Trainer P J Rothwell has a 7 percent strike rate from 608 runs at Downpatrick while jockey Tiernan Power Roche is 4 percent from 26 rides at the track. Recent form figures read /1FPP- and the KTB Fit Score is 42.
Room For One MoreKTB Fit 42/100
Room For One More showed only modest form when sixth on debut over 2m. The step up in trip today asks a fresh question of this lightly raced 5-year-old. Mullins has a solid 28 percent strike rate from 257 runs at Downpatrick while O'Keeffe is operating at a 3 percent strike rate from 77 rides here. Recent form figures read 6- and the KTB Fit Score is 42.
Mercurial SeaKTB Fit 39/100
Mercurial Sea is a fair performer who has shown his best form at this track, finishing second here on his most recent visit after an earlier eighth. He drops back in trip today having last run over two and a half miles, though he has placed once at this distance without winning. The yard's modest 4 percent strike rate from 25 runs at Downpatrick and the jockey's 0 percent record from 11 rides here add to the negatives on a day when the horse is unproven on the ground. Recent form figures read P86-28 and the KTB Fit Score is 39.
KTB verdict
Ritz Plan is the KTB Selection. This useful performer showed consistent form last season with two seconds from three completed starts and brings the highest KTB Fit Score of 56 into a race where many have questions to answer on trip or experience. The step up in distance will tell us more but the Crawford and Slevin team know the track and the recent placed efforts give a solid base. Main dangers are Fastnet Crystal, who brings the promise of first-time headgear and strong trainer statistics at the venue, and Hello Below, whose placed efforts this year cannot be ignored despite the drop in trip. Cool Native from the Elliott yard and Bayonetta with her course placed form add further depth to what looks a competitive maiden.
KTB Selection Ritz Plan
This is the narrative read of the 2:07 Downpatrick. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Downpatrick racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is unproven on the current ground yet has the highest KTB Fit Score?
Ritz Plan, rated 56, has had no runs on unknown going.
How many runners are wearing first-time headgear?
Four: Fastnet Crystal, Three Leaf Clover, Cool Native and Bayonetta.
Which trainer has the strongest strike rate at Downpatrick in this field?
W P Mullins has a 28 percent strike rate from 257 runs at Downpatrick.
Which horse has course form at Downpatrick including a recent second?
Mercurial Sea, who finished second here on his most recent visit after an earlier eighth.
Who is the only horse in the race with a win on debut?
Cool Native, who won on debut before two creditable placed efforts.
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