3:01 Bath
This Class 5 EBF Restricted Maiden Fillies' Stakes over 5f10y at Bath brings together eight two-year-olds with relatively modest form on the whole. The KTB Fit scores are tightly bunched between 54 and 42, underlining a race where progression, trip suitability and the draw could prove decisive. Several runners remain unproven on the ground while others are dropping in trip or class, and the Bath statistics for the yards involved add another layer to the puzzle.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape suggests a race that should be run at an even gallop with a handful of forward-goers. Sayidah Ardad and Last Dandelion are expected to track the pace while Bellatina from stall five and Tricky Jenny from stall two are likely to be on the speed early. The key question is whether any of the debutants or lightly raced types can show enough early toe to challenge the more experienced runners without overdoing it in the small field.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Sayidah Ardad KTB Selection54/100Modest performer who has shown a bit of ability in three starts without threatening to win.
- 2Bellatina53/100Bellatina is a modest performer who has shown consistent placed form at this trip, finishing second in three of her last four starts.
- 3Dissenter52/100Dissenter showed little at Bath on debut when finishing fifth of six.
- 4Last Dandelion49/100Last Dandelion has shown modest form in four runs with a best effort when third on debut.
- 5Space Dreamer49/100Space Dreamer showed some promise when fifth on debut over this trip.
- 6Yankeedoodledandy47/100Yankeedoodledandy has shown little in two starts so far, finishing eighth on debut and then again last time out.
- 7Sheer Beauty45/100Sheer Beauty showed only modest early speed when finishing sixth on debut over this trip.
- 8Tricky Jenny42/100Modest performer who has shown little in three starts to date and now drops back to 5f after a poor effort over 6f last time.
The contenders
Sayidah Ardad KTB Fit 54/100
Sayidah Ardad is a modest performer who has shown a bit of ability in three starts without threatening to win. Dropping back to 5f is an unknown and the form at this trip was poor while the seventh here last time was nothing to shout about. The trainer operates at a steady 9% strike rate at Bath from a big sample of runners. Joe Leavy takes the ride and the yard is dropping her in class today. She has the benefit of draw seven though remains unproven on the ground. Overall she has more questions than answers but is the KTB Selection.
Bellatina KTB Fit 53/100
Bellatina is a modest performer who has shown consistent placed form at this trip, finishing second in three of her last four starts. She has the benefit of a good draw in stall five and connections that know the track well, with the trainer operating at a 27% strike rate here from 26 runs. The small sample on this ground leaves her suitability as an unknown. Sean D Bowen is aboard and the pair hold a strong 10/70 record together with a positive A/E. Stepping up in class today she brings the most placed efforts to the table among the principals. Her consistency at the minimum trip makes her a major player if the ground is suitable.
Dissenter KTB Fit 52/100
Dissenter showed little at Bath on debut when finishing fifth of six. The yard has a solid 20% strike rate here from a big sample of 231 runs. Everything else is unknown on the back of just one run. Ashley Lewis claims 5lb and the trainer-jockey combination shows an 11% strike rate. Unproven on the ground and with a wide draw in stall eight she has a fair bit to find. The Marcus Tregoning yard can improve horses markedly from debut to second start and that possibility keeps her in the conversation.
Last Dandelion KTB Fit 49/100
Last Dandelion has shown modest form in four runs with a best effort when third on debut. Dropping back to 5f today asks a fresh question as she has only raced at 6f so far. The yard holds a solid 16% strike rate at Bath from 85 runs. Jack Doughty is in the saddle and the trainer-jockey partnership records a 16% strike rate with a positive A/E. Draw three could be handy if she can show the necessary early speed. She remains unproven on the ground but the yard's record at the venue offers some encouragement.
The rest of the field
Space DreamerKTB Fit 49/100
Space Dreamer showed some promise when fifth on debut over this trip. The small sample makes it hard to gauge true ability or how she will handle today's going. Trainer Ollie Sangster has a 15% strike rate at Bath from 33 runs while jockey Charles Bishop has limited experience here.
YankeedoodledandyKTB Fit 47/100
Yankeedoodledandy has shown little in two starts so far, finishing eighth on debut and then again last time out. Dropping back from 6f to 5f poses a fresh question. Trainer J S Moore has an 8% strike rate from 533 runs at Bath while the small sample means the going remains unknown.
Sheer BeautyKTB Fit 45/100
Sheer Beauty showed only modest early speed when finishing sixth on debut over this trip. The yard has a 14 percent strike rate at Bath from a small sample of seven runners. Everything else is guesswork with just the one run on the board.
Tricky JennyKTB Fit 42/100
Modest performer who has shown little in three starts to date and now drops back to 5f after a poor effort over 6f last time. Stall 2 could be an advantage at this track but she has plenty to find on what she has shown so far. Trainer James Owen has an 18% strike rate from 28 runs at Bath while Luke Morris is the jockey.
KTB verdict
The tightly packed KTB Fit scores point to a race where the principals are closely matched on what they have shown so far. Sayidah Ardad is taken as the selection having shown a bit of ability in three starts and with the benefit of dropping in class despite the trip query. Her experience counts for plenty in a field where several others have even less to recommend them. Bellatina looks the main danger on the back of consistent placed form at this trip and a yard that knows the track well. Dissenter and Last Dandelion are next in the order of merit but both need to improve on what they have shown to date.
KTB Selection Sayidah Ardad
This is the narrative read of the 3:01 Bath. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Bath racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the most placed form at 5f coming into the race?
Bellatina has finished second in three of her last four starts at this trip.
What is the trainer's strike rate at Bath for the yard of the KTB Selection?
Grace Harris operates at a 9% strike rate at Bath from 295 runs.
Which runner is dropping back to 5f having only raced at 6f previously?
Last Dandelion has only raced at 6f so far and is dropping back to 5f today.
Who holds the highest strike rate at Bath among the trainers of the principals?
Charlie Johnston has a 27% strike rate at Bath from 26 runs.
Which horse showed promise on debut over this trip according to the KTB assessment?
Space Dreamer showed some promise when fifth on debut over this trip.
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