2:40 Catterick
This Class 5 EBF Restricted Novice Stakes over the minimum 5f at Catterick brings together a field of largely unexposed two-year-olds, several dropping in trip and with headgear applied for the first time. The KTB Fit ratings are tightly bunched at the top, underlining how little separates these juveniles on what little evidence exists. Longshanks Luke heads the numbers as the sole newcomer, though several rivals have shown only modest form to date and the race lacks any standout established performer.
How the race shapes up
With several runners likely to adopt a forward position from low draws, including Mick's The Boy from stall 1 and Lion Of Persia from stall 2, the pace shape looks on the strong side for a 5f event. South West from draw 3 and Mr De Maggs from draw 4 should also be prominent early, while Longshanks Luke is expected to come from further back having been fitted with first-time headgear. The key question is whether the race will be run at a genuine clip that exposes those who have shown only modest speed to date or whether the headgear and drop in trip can unlock extra from the principals.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Longshanks Luke KTB Selection52/100Longshanks Luke is a newcomer with no racecourse form to go on.
- 2South West51/100Modest performer who has shown bits and pieces in three runs to date, finishing third on debut over this trip before two lesser efforts at 6f.
- 3Lion Of Persia49/100Lion Of Persia has shown only modest form in two starts at this trip so far.
- 4Mr De Maggs47/100Mr De Maggs has only one career run behind him so the form picture remains thin.
- 5Neverbeatdeswalker47/100Neverbeatdeswalker showed little on debut over 6f and now drops back to 5f for the first time which asks a fresh question.
- 6Mick's The Boy45/100Mick's The Boy showed some promise when second on debut over 6f but failed to build on it last time.
- 7Johns Power45/100Johns Power has shown very little in two starts to date, finishing well beaten on both occasions.
- 8Kaiulani Spirit44/100Kaiulani Spirit has shown little in two starts over this trip finishing 6th and 7th.
- 9Prosperity Angel40/100Ben Haslam's newcomer is bred to have speed and cost 32,000 guineas as a yearling.
- 10Cheeky Chesca38/100Modest performer who has shown consistent placed form at this trip without winning.
The contenders
Longshanks Luke KTB Fit 52/100
Longshanks Luke is a newcomer with no racecourse form to go on. The first-time headgear is an interesting addition at debut and the yard have a solid 17% strike-rate at Catterick from 59 runs. Pedigree and sales background offer the only clues here and with low data confidence this is very much an unknown quantity. By Rajasinghe, he carries a 13% overall win rate through his sire's progeny from 683 runners. Trainer Patrick Neville and jockey Paul Mulrennan combine with respective Catterick figures of 17% strike rate (A/E 1.07) and 11% strike rate (A/E 0.9). Drawn in stall 9, he is the KTB Selection and could easily improve past more exposed rivals if the headgear has the desired effect.
South West KTB Fit 51/100
South West is a modest performer who has shown bits and pieces in three runs to date, finishing third on debut over this trip before two lesser efforts at 6f. He drops back to 5f now with first-time headgear applied, which could sharpen him up given the yard's modest 0% strike rate from five runs at Catterick. Lightly raced so going suitability remains unknown. The trainer and jockey partnership shows 2/17 (12%) with an A/E of 0.71. Jockey Daniel Tudhope has a 17% strike rate at the track (A/E 0.92). Dropping in class from a draw of 3, he brings the most placed form of the principals though the yard's Catterick record is a concern.
Lion Of Persia KTB Fit 49/100
Lion Of Persia has shown only modest form in two starts at this trip so far. The yard posts a solid 15 percent strike rate at Catterick from a decent-sized sample. With so few runs on the board any firm conclusions on ground or further improvement remain guesswork. Trainer Robert Cowell and jockey Marco Ghiani have a 20/121 (17%) record together with an A/E of 1.08. The trainer's own Catterick figures read 15% strike rate (A/E 1.05). Dropping in class from draw 2, he is another who could be prominent early but has yet to suggest he is anything more than modest.
Mr De Maggs KTB Fit 47/100
Mr De Maggs has only one career run behind him so the form picture remains thin. He drops back from 6f to 5f today which asks a fresh question of him. Trainer and jockey records at Catterick are based on samples too small to read anything into. The partnership between Tony Culhane & Stella Barclay and Zak Wheatley stands at 2/14 (14%) with an A/E of 1.02. Dropping in class from stall 4, he remains very much an unknown at this stage though the trip looks more suitable on pedigree. With so little to go on, any market support would be significant.
Neverbeatdeswalker KTB Fit 47/100
Neverbeatdeswalker showed little on debut over 6f and now drops back to 5f for the first time which asks a fresh question. The yard has a modest 9% strike rate from 194 runs at Catterick. With only one run on the board overall this remains very much an unknown at this stage. Trainer Mark Walford and jockey Jason Hart have a 25/243 (10%) record with an A/E of 0.93. The trainer's Catterick figures read 9% strike rate (A/E 0.67) while the jockey has a 14% strike rate at the track (A/E 0.95). Drawn widest in stall 10, he will need to improve markedly on that initial effort.
The rest of the field
Mick's The BoyKTB Fit 45/100
Mick's The Boy showed some promise when second on debut over 6f but failed to build on it last time. He now drops back to an untried 5f which asks a fresh question of him. The yard's modest 5% strike rate from 128 runs at Catterick adds little encouragement and with only two career starts the overall picture remains tentative.
Johns PowerKTB Fit 45/100
Johns Power has shown very little in two starts to date, finishing well beaten on both occasions. He now drops back to 5f for the first time which asks a fresh question of him. The yard's modest 10% strike rate at Catterick from a large sample offers no particular encouragement.
Kaiulani SpiritKTB Fit 44/100
Kaiulani Spirit has shown little in two starts over this trip finishing 6th and 7th. The yard has a solid 11% strike rate from 1509 runs at Catterick. With only two career runs data confidence remains low so this one is best approached with caution.
Prosperity AngelKTB Fit 40/100
Ben Haslam's newcomer is bred to have speed and cost 32,000 guineas as a yearling. The yard's modest 4% strike rate at Catterick from a large sample is a clear negative on debut. With no racecourse evidence and low data confidence this one is best watched.
Cheeky ChescaKTB Fit 38/100
Modest performer who has shown consistent placed form at this trip without winning. Dropping back from 6f should suit and the first-time headgear is a positive, though she has yet to land a race in six starts. Trainer has a solid 11% strike rate from 1509 runs at Catterick.
KTB verdict
Longshanks Luke is the KTB Selection in a race where so many runners bring limited evidence to the table. The first-time headgear and the yard's respectable record at Catterick give him a plausible chance to make a winning debut, particularly if the race develops into a test of speed. South West and Mick's The Boy bring the most placed form and look the obvious dangers, while Lion Of Persia and Neverbeatdeswalker are others who could improve for the drop to 5f, though the overall standard remains modest.
KTB Selection Longshanks Luke
This is the narrative read of the 2:40 Catterick. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Catterick racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is having its first racecourse start?
Longshanks Luke and Prosperity Angel are the two newcomers with no racecourse form to go on.
How many runners are wearing headgear for the first time?
Three runners are fitted with first-time headgear: Longshanks Luke, South West and Cheeky Chesca.
Which trainer has the strongest strike rate at Catterick in this field?
Robert Cowell has a 15% strike rate at Catterick (A/E 1.05 from 79 runs), the highest among the trainers represented.
Which horses are dropping back in trip to 5f?
South West, Mr De Maggs, Neverbeatdeswalker, Mick's The Boy, Johns Power and Cheeky Chesca are all dropping back in trip to 5f.
What is the overall pace shape indicated for the race?
The pace shape looks on the strong side with several forward-going runners drawn low, potentially setting up an end-to-end gallop over the minimum trip.
18+. Analysis and entertainment only — no guarantee of profit. KTB race previews are published for interest and are not betting advice. Only ever stake what you can comfortably afford to lose, and set your own limits. Free, confidential help: the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133 (GamCare.org.uk); in Ireland, the GamblingCare.ie helpline on 1800 936 725. Self-exclude at any time via GAMSTOP.
About the A/E figures in this preview. They are the data supplier’s: the winners a trainer or jockey had, divided by the winners the starting prices implied, over the runs in that record. Above 1.0 means more wins than the prices suggested. It is not KTB’s fair A/E, which allows for the bookmakers’ margin and the favourite–longshot bias, and the two are not comparable.
More from Kickthebookies