7:45 Leopardstown
The 7:45 at Leopardstown is a 1m2f handicap for a field of nine that looks competitive on paper, with several runners arriving in reasonable form and holding course experience. The KTB Fit Scores are tightly bunched at the top, headed by Unterberg on 63, while the next three principals sit between 53 and 57; the remainder are rated in the mid- to low-40s. With the ground unproven for every horse and the trainer and jockey stats showing a mixture of modest and solid records at the track, this looks an open contest where course form, trip suitability and the first-time headgear applied to four runners could prove decisive.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is unclear with low confidence, as there is not enough run-style evidence across the field to form a reliable picture. Several runners have flexible profiles and the early tempo could be modest, which may favour those capable of producing a late effort. The key question is whether the race develops into a test of stamina up the straight or if the lack of confirmed pace allows prominent runners to get away with an easy lead.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Unterberg KTB Selection63/100Unterberg is a fair sort who has won once from three starts at Leopardstown and arrives in decent nick judged on recent form of 511108.
- 2Sinbad My Dad57/100Modest performer who has won once from two starts at Leopardstown.
- 3Daler57/100Fair performer who won over 10f here last season and has been placed when tried at this trip.
- 4En Or53/100En Or is a fair performer who has run three times at Leopardstown without placing and now tries headgear for the first time.
- 5Neo Smart47/100Modest performer who has been around a bit and showed his best form at this track with three placed efforts from five runs here.
- 6Marmeladova46/100Fair sort who has run creditably in two of her last three starts and drops back to a trip she has won over.
- 7Faro Island40/100Modest performer who has shown bits of form this year but has been inconsistent overall.
- 8Out On Friday38/100Modest performer who has been largely out of form for a while and ran poorly on his last two starts.
- 9Blackjack Hills36/100Modest performer who won twice on the all-weather at the end of last year but has been well held on turf this season.
The contenders
Unterberg KTB Fit 63/100
Unterberg is a fair sort who has won once from three starts at Leopardstown and arrives in decent nick judged on recent form of 511108. He drops back to 1m2f having won twice at the trip from 13 attempts though the yard's 8% strike rate from 12 runs at the track is modest. The 7yo is unproven on this ground which adds an unknown to the equation. Trainer Laura Hourigan and jockey Rory Mulligan combine with a 4/21 record that has produced an A/E of 1.99, while the trainer's 8% strike rate at Leopardstown comes with an A/E of 1.28. Drawn in stall 7, he has shown he can handle the track and his recent wins give him a solid platform in a race where the pace shape is hard to read.
Sinbad My Dad KTB Fit 57/100
Sinbad My Dad is a modest performer who has won once from two starts at Leopardstown. He has been below form on his last three starts and now drops back in trip having been placed three times from nine runs at this distance without winning. The yard has an 8% strike rate from 90 runs at the track while the jockey is unproven here. Seamus Fahey and Joseph Harnett team up with a 1/14 record that carries an A/E of 0.98. Drawn in stall 5, the 5yo remains unproven on the current ground and will need to bounce back from those recent below-par efforts if he is to capitalise on his course record.
Daler KTB Fit 57/100
Daler is a fair performer who won over 10f here last season and has been placed when tried at this trip. He steps up in distance today having shown his best recent form over shorter, while the first-time headgear is another unknown on ground he has never encountered. Trainer strikes at 12% here from a huge sample. G M Lyons and Colin Keane have a strong 686/3478 record with an A/E of 0.93, and the trainer's 12% strike rate at Leopardstown comes from 969 runs with an A/E of 0.83. The jockey's 14% strike rate at the track carries an A/E of 0.85. Drawn in stall 8, the 4yo brings solid course form and the headgear may help him settle better as the race unfolds.
En Or KTB Fit 53/100
En Or is a fair performer who has run three times at Leopardstown without placing and now tries headgear for the first time. He drops back from 1m6f to a trip where he has won twice from ten starts, though his recent form of 7090-0 is ordinary. The yard records an 8% strike rate from 658 runs at this track while the horse remains unproven on the current ground. A J Martin and Ben Coen combine with an 11/92 record that has an A/E of 1.27. The trainer's 8% strike rate at Leopardstown comes with an A/E of 0.81 and the jockey's 7% strike rate carries an A/E of 0.69. Drawn in stall 1, he has the rail to help but will need to improve on those ordinary recent displays.
The rest of the field
Neo SmartKTB Fit 47/100
Neo Smart is a modest performer who has been around a bit and showed his best form at this track with three placed efforts from five runs here. He steps up in trip for the first time in a while having been largely campaigned over a mile and is unproven on the ground. First-time headgear is now fitted.
MarmeladovaKTB Fit 46/100
Marmeladova is a fair sort who has run creditably in two of her last three starts and drops back to a trip she has won over. She has already shown she handles this track even if her only run here was poor, while the yard's modest 6 percent strike rate at Leopardstown is worth noting. The unknown ground adds an element of risk. Usually held up and produces its effort late.
Faro IslandKTB Fit 40/100
Faro Island is a modest performer who has shown bits of form this year but has been inconsistent overall. Drops back to 1m2f where he has won once from four starts though he was well held over 1m4f last time. First-time headgear is tried while the trainer has a modest 5% strike rate at Leopardstown from 340 runs.
Out On FridayKTB Fit 38/100
Out On Friday is a modest performer who has been largely out of form for a while and ran poorly on his last two starts. He has placed once from four runs at Leopardstown and steps up in trip today having won at this distance in the past though his recent efforts suggest he may struggle to be competitive. The trainer has a 0% strike rate from 19 runs here.
Blackjack HillsKTB Fit 36/100
Blackjack Hills is a modest performer who won twice on the all-weather at the end of last year but has been well held on turf this season. Drops back to a trip he has won over though he showed little on his only previous run here. First-time headgear is now fitted while the trainer's modest 5% strike rate at Leopardstown offers little encouragement.
KTB verdict
Unterberg is the KTB Selection. He brings the highest Fit Score, has already shown his liking for Leopardstown with a win from three starts, and arrives in decent nick on the back of form figures of 511108. The drop back to 1m2f looks suitable given his two previous wins at the trip, and the yard's record with the jockey offers some encouragement despite the modest course strike rate. His main dangers are Daler, who has strong course form and the assistance of Colin Keane in first-time headgear, and the consistent Marmeladova who drops back to a winning distance, though the unknown ground remains a factor for all.
KTB Selection Unterberg
This is the narrative read of the 7:45 Leopardstown. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Leopardstown racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the best recent course form at Leopardstown?
Unterberg has won once from three starts at Leopardstown.
How many runners are trying first-time headgear?
Four runners are trying first-time headgear: Daler, En Or, Neo Smart and Faro Island, plus Blackjack Hills.
Who has the strongest trainer-jockey combination statistic at the track?
Seamus Fahey and Joseph Harnett have a 17% strike rate at Leopardstown with an A/E of 1.97 from the jockey's small sample.
Which horse is stepping up in trip having shown best recent form over shorter distances?
Daler is stepping up in distance today having shown his best recent form over shorter.
What is the pace shape assessment for this race?
Pace shape is unclear with low confidence as there is not enough run-style evidence across the field.
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