8:40 Epsom
A modest Class 6 handicap for three-year-olds over 7f at Epsom provides the evening highlight. Nine runners line up with little to choose between them on official figures and most remain unproven on the ground and at the track. The KTB numbers give a narrow edge to low-drawn Piazza, who edges the Fit ratings at 61 while the yard has a strong record at the venue.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape suggests a fairly even tempo with several horses capable of taking a lead or sitting prominently. Run-styles point to Credit Forgedd It from stall 1 and Piazza drawn in 2 likely to be forward, while most of the remainder are expected to track or race midfield. The key question is whether the rail proves an advantage on the turning track or if those drawn higher can find a rhythm without using up too much energy early.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Piazza KTB Selection61/100Modest performer who has shown consistent placed form without winning in five starts.
- 2Eyes Front60/100Modest performer who has been consistent but limited, finishing no better than fifth on his last four starts.
- 3Madman55/100Madman is a limited horse who has been running consistently without winning in recent starts.
- 4Twilight Glow50/100Modest performer who has been below form in three starts since a respectable fifth at Kempton in April.
- 5Sun Of Dolly49/100Modest performer who has shown little sign of progress in five runs to date.
- 6Ice Cube48/100Limited horse who has shown very little in eight starts and remains winless.
- 7Mayfair Market45/100Modest performer who has struggled since his early promise with three runs this year producing below-par efforts.
- 8Credit Forgedd It44/100Modest performer who has shown bits of ability on a couple of occasions but has failed to build on those efforts in three starts this year.
- 9Karisma's Angel37/100Limited horse who has shown just one placed effort in five starts, most recently finishing second over this trip at Windsor.
The contenders
Piazza KTB Fit 61/100
Piazza is a modest performer who has shown consistent placed form without winning in five starts. He drops in class having tried this trip twice already and the distance looks suitable. Drawn low at Epsom where the trainer boasts a 17% strike rate from just six runs and the yard knows the place well. The small going sample leaves that side unknown. Trainer and jockey combine with a 4/14 record and positive A/E of 1.94. Hector Crouch has an 12% strike rate at the track from 112 rides.
Eyes Front KTB Fit 60/100
Eyes Front is a modest performer who has been consistent but limited, finishing no better than fifth on his last four starts. He is unproven on this ground and makes his first visit to Epsom today while trying headgear for the first time. The trip appears suitable on what he has shown so far. Trainer Edward Smyth-Osbourne has no Epsom record but an overall 20% strike rate from 20 runs, while jockey Alistair Rawlinson is 8% from 12 rides at the track. Their combined record stands at 0/22 with an A/E of 0.00.
Madman KTB Fit 55/100
Madman is a limited horse who has been running consistently without winning in recent starts. He steps up to 7f for the first time in a while with no experience of the track or this ground. The yard has a solid 18% strike-rate at Epsom from 17 runs while the jockey is operating at a strong 43% here from a small sample of seven rides. Their combined record is 1/6. Mason Paetel claims 5lb which could prove useful in a tight field.
Twilight Glow KTB Fit 50/100
Twilight Glow is a modest performer who has been below form in three starts since a respectable fifth at Kempton in April. First-time headgear is tried today and he drops in class. The yard has a solid 13% strike rate at Epsom from 92 runs though the jockey's strike rate here is a more modest 8% from 62 rides. Their combined record stands at 97/932 with an A/E of 0.90. He remains untried on this ground and is yet to place in four runs at today's trip.
The rest of the field
Sun Of DollyKTB Fit 49/100
Sun Of Dolly is a modest performer who has shown little sign of progress in five runs to date. Recent efforts have been ordinary at best and the trip looks on the short side for this pedigree. The trainer strikes at a solid rate here while the jockey is a regular rider at the track but this one has plenty to find.
Ice CubeKTB Fit 48/100
Ice Cube is a limited horse who has shown very little in eight starts and remains winless. First-time headgear is reached for today while he steps out at Epsom for the first time on ground he has never tackled. Trainer and jockey both hold solid records at the track.
Mayfair MarketKTB Fit 45/100
Mayfair Market is a modest performer who has struggled since his early promise with three runs this year producing below-par efforts. He drops back to 7f having been placed at the trip without winning and first-time headgear is now applied. The trainer has a 0% strike rate from eight runs at Epsom while the jockey operates at an 8% strike rate from 131 rides here.
Credit Forgedd ItKTB Fit 44/100
Credit Forgedd It is a modest performer who has shown bits of ability on a couple of occasions but has failed to build on those efforts in three starts this year. First run at Epsom for a trainer with a solid 9% strike rate here from a big sample, though the jockey is less prolific at the track with a 7% record from 83 rides. The trip looks about right and the draw in stall 1 could be handy, but the horse remains unproven on this ground.
Karisma's AngelKTB Fit 37/100
Karisma's Angel is a limited horse who has shown just one placed effort in five starts, most recently finishing second over this trip at Windsor. The yard has a modest 7% strike rate from 60 runs at Epsom while Kieran Shoemark is 11% from 82 rides here. The trip looks about right but the small-sample going note leaves that side of things unknown.
KTB verdict
Piazza is the KTB Selection. He has been consistently placed without winning yet and drops in class while drawn low at a track where the trainer holds a strong record. The trip is about right on what he has shown and the yard knows Epsom well. His main dangers are Eyes Front, who tries headgear for the first time having been consistent if limited, and Madman, who brings strong Epsom jockey and trainer figures into the equation. Twilight Glow cannot be entirely dismissed with the first-time headgear and a drop in grade.
KTB Selection Piazza
This is the narrative read of the 8:40 Epsom. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Epsom racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse steps up to 7f for the first time in a while?
Madman steps up to 7f for the first time in a while with no experience of the track or this ground.
How many runners are trying first-time headgear?
Four runners are trying first-time headgear: Eyes Front, Twilight Glow, Ice Cube and Mayfair Market.
Which trainer has the strongest strike rate at Epsom among those represented?
The trainers with the strongest Epsom strike rates are Rachel Cook & John Bridger at 18% and Richard Spencer at 18%.
Who has the best jockey strike rate at Epsom in this field?
Mason Paetel has a 43% strike rate at Epsom from seven rides.
Which horse is dropping in class from a higher grade?
Piazza, Twilight Glow, Sun Of Dolly, Ice Cube and Mayfair Market are all dropping in class.
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