3:38 Thirsk
This Class 6 classified stakes over 7f 218y at Thirsk brings together a field of 13 limited performers, many of them arriving in modest recent form and with questions to answer on ground they have yet to encounter. The KTB Fit scores reflect a tight but unexciting bunch, with the top five separated by just seven points and several first-time headgear applications adding further unknowns. With the pace shape rated unclear and low on confidence owing to limited run-style data, the race looks likely to hinge on which of these modest types can find a spark under the Thirsk conditions.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is unclear with low confidence, as there is simply not enough evidence from the run-styles across the field to build a reliable picture of how the race will unfold. A couple of runners have a held-up profile, but the majority lack defined early speed or closing styles on record. The key question is whether the race develops into a test of stamina late on or if a prominent rider can steal an uncontested lead on a track where such tactics can pay off.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Create KTB Selection58/100Limited performer who has dropped to the bottom of the weights but arrives in poor form having finished no better than fourth in four runs this year.
- 2Can I Kiss You55/100Can I Kiss You has shown modest placed form at this trip but remains a limited performer overall on the balance of her 11 starts.
- 3Langholm52/100Limited performer who has won once over this trip and once at Thirsk from modest overall form figures.
- 4Aspire To Glory51/100Aspire To Glory is a limited performer who has won only once in 39 starts and arrives here in modest form.
- 5Trucial Pearl51/100Limited performer who has shown mixed form this year and is now fitted with first-time headgear.
- 6Regal Knight50/100Regal Knight has shown only limited ability in eight starts and failed to trouble the judge when tried here previously.
- 7Copper And Five48/100Copper And Five is a limited handicapper who has been running to form without winning lately and drops back from a mile to a trip he has won at five times from…
- 8Without Delay44/100Limited performer who has been out of form for some time and showed little spark in recent runs.
- 9I Can Boogy44/100Limited performer who has won twice at today's trip but has struggled to make an impact this year.
- 10Queenies Pal44/100Limited performer who has shown very little in eight starts and now tries headgear for the first time.
- 11Park Lane Penny43/100Limited performer who has shown little in three starts before a much better second at this trip last time.
- 12Here Comes Louie40/100Limited horse who has shown very little in four starts to date and was well beaten on both handicap attempts this year.
- 13Bridgefoot Rambler28/100Limited horse who has shown very little in four runs to date and was beaten over 13 lengths when sixth on his only visit to Thirsk.
The contenders
Create KTB Fit 58/100
Create is a limited performer who has dropped to the bottom of the weights but arrives in poor form having finished no better than fourth in four runs this year. He has won over today's trip and the first-time headgear is a possible positive, though he has looked limited on his one previous run here. The yard holds a 9% strike rate at Thirsk from 111 runs with an A/E of 1.11, while Christian Howarth brings a 15% strike rate at the track from just 13 rides and an A/E of 1.51. Trainer and jockey therefore both have solid recent records at Thirsk that add some encouragement. With a KTB Fit of 58 this six-year-old from draw 3 is the selection in a race full of modest types.
Can I Kiss You KTB Fit 55/100
Can I Kiss You has shown modest placed form at this trip but remains a limited performer overall on the balance of her 11 starts. She drops back from 1m today having been placed once in five runs at 7f and makes her first visit to Thirsk. The yard has a 9% strike-rate here from 23 runs while the jockey is operating at 8% from 86 rides. With a KTB Fit of 55 this four-year-old from draw 11 is capable of a respectable showing but needs to improve on recent efforts to play a leading role.
Langholm KTB Fit 52/100
Langholm is a limited performer who has won once over this trip and once at Thirsk from modest overall form figures. The yard has a solid record at the track but the claiming jockey is operating at a low strike rate here and the horse is unproven on this ground. First-time headgear is now applied. With a KTB Fit of 52 this ten-year-old from draw 12 has course-and-distance winning form in his favour yet the modest recent efforts and jockey statistics temper expectations.
Aspire To Glory KTB Fit 51/100
Aspire To Glory is a limited performer who has won only once in 39 starts and arrives here in modest form. He is unproven on this ground and makes his first visit to Thirsk but is proven at the trip with two placed efforts. First-time headgear is now applied and the yard has a solid 20 percent strike rate at the track. With a KTB Fit of 51 this five-year-old from draw 1 could find some improvement under the new headgear though his overall profile remains modest.
Trucial Pearl KTB Fit 51/100
Trucial Pearl is a limited performer who has shown mixed form this year and is now fitted with first-time headgear. He has won at today's trip but is unproven on the ground and makes a first appearance at Thirsk. Trainer and jockey both have modest records at the track. With a KTB Fit of 51 this three-year-old from draw 13 brings some of the more recent placed form in the field yet still has plenty to prove in this company.
The rest of the field
Regal KnightKTB Fit 50/100
Regal Knight has shown only limited ability in eight starts and failed to trouble the judge when tried here previously. He drops back in trip having been out of the frame on his last four outings while the first-time headgear is another unknown on ground he has never tackled. The yard has a modest record at Thirsk and Silvestre de Sousa has a fair strike rate here.
Copper And FiveKTB Fit 48/100
Copper And Five is a limited handicapper who has been running to form without winning lately and drops back from a mile to a trip he has won at five times from 42 starts. He has course experience here with one win from eight runs and the yard's modest 8% strike-rate from a big sample at Thirsk adds no real encouragement. First-time headgear is now fitted on ground he has never tried.
Without DelayKTB Fit 44/100
Without Delay is a limited performer who has been out of form for some time and showed little spark in recent runs. He has placed once from four starts at Thirsk but the yard and jockey both record modest 9% strike rates here. He steps up in trip today wearing headgear for the first time while unproven on the ground.
I Can BoogyKTB Fit 44/100
I Can Boogy is a limited performer who has won twice at today's trip but has struggled to make an impact this year. He has run twice at Thirsk without placing and the yard's modest 5% strike rate here adds little encouragement. The jockey is similarly quiet at the track while the horse remains unproven on this ground.
Queenies PalKTB Fit 44/100
Queenies Pal is a limited performer who has shown very little in eight starts and now tries headgear for the first time. The step up in trip asks a fresh question while the yard's modest 5% strike rate at Thirsk offers no encouragement. The jockey has a solid 11% record here but the overall profile remains weak.
Park Lane PennyKTB Fit 43/100
Park Lane Penny is a limited performer who has shown little in three starts before a much better second at this trip last time. Stall two is fine but the yard's modest record here offers no encouragement. The jockey's long-term strike-rate at Thirsk is also below par.
Here Comes LouieKTB Fit 40/100
Here Comes Louie is a limited horse who has shown very little in four starts to date and was well beaten on both handicap attempts this year. Dropping back from 1m2f to 7f poses a fresh question while the yard's modest record at Thirsk offers no encouragement. Jockey Kevin Stott has a solid 14% strike rate here from 241 rides.
Bridgefoot RamblerKTB Fit 28/100
Bridgefoot Rambler is a limited horse who has shown very little in four runs to date and was beaten over 13 lengths when sixth on his only visit to Thirsk. He steps back up to 7f today with first-time headgear applied but remains hard to fancy on what he has produced so far. Trainer and jockey both have too few runs at the track to draw any conclusions from.
KTB verdict
Create stands out as the KTB Selection with a Fit score of 58 in a race where the principals are closely matched on modest ability. He has the benefit of first-time headgear, a trip over which he has won before, and the strongest trainer-jockey combination at the track among the leading contenders. His main dangers are likely to come from Langholm with his course win and Aspire To Glory who brings placed form at the distance, while Trucial Pearl and Can I Kiss You cannot be entirely dismissed if the race develops to suit their styles.
KTB Selection Create
This is the narrative read of the 3:38 Thirsk. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Thirsk racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has course-and-distance winning form?
Langholm has won once at Thirsk over this trip.
How many of the field are wearing first-time headgear?
Eight runners are fitted with first-time headgear: Create, Langholm, Aspire To Glory, Trucial Pearl, Regal Knight, Copper And Five, Without Delay and Queenies Pal, plus Bridgefoot Rambler.
Which trainer has the strongest strike rate at Thirsk in this race?
Dylan Cunha has a 20% strike rate at Thirsk from five runs.
Which jockey has the best strike rate at the track among those with meaningful data?
Christian Howarth has a 15% strike rate at Thirsk from 13 rides with an A/E of 1.51.
Who has the most placed form at the trip among the principals?
Aspire To Glory is proven at the trip with two placed efforts.
18+. Analysis and entertainment only — no guarantee of profit. KTB race previews are published for interest and are not betting advice. Only ever stake what you can comfortably afford to lose, and set your own limits. Free, confidential help: the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133 (GamCare.org.uk); in Ireland, the GamblingCare.ie helpline on 1800 936 725. Self-exclude at any time via GAMSTOP.
More from Kickthebookies