4:25 Chepstow
A Class 6 handicap over 7f at Chepstow features a field of 14 limited performers, many of them with previous experience at the track but precious few in top form. The KTB Fit Scores are tightly bunched in the low-to-mid 50s for the principals, underlining the modest standard of the race and the difficulty of separating them on paper. With the pace shape rated unclear owing to limited run-style evidence, the contest looks open and the KTB numbers point to a race that could be decided by which of the course winners finds a spark on ground that remains unproven for the entire field.
How the race shapes up
With the pace shape unclear and low confidence in the run-style data, it is hard to forecast how the race will unfold. Several runners have shown a tendency to race prominently or on the pace in the past, yet not enough evidence exists to be certain whether a clear leader will emerge. The key question is whether the race will be run at a genuine gallop or whether a more tactical affair develops, potentially favouring those who can produce their effort at the right moment from mid-division or off the pace.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Green Icon KTB Selection62/100Green Icon is a limited performer on the balance of his recent form and overall ratings.
- 2King Of The Dance56/100King Of The Dance is a limited handicapper who has run to form without winning on his last four starts.
- 3Autumn Angel52/100Limited performer who has won once from four runs at Chepstow and steps up from six furlongs to a trip where she has also scored.
- 4Ravenglass52/100Ravenglass is a limited performer who has been consistent enough to place in two of his last three starts without winning.
- 5Ten Club52/100Limited performer who has won once over this trip and once at Chepstow.
- 6Romanovich51/100Limited horse who has won four times at this track from 14 runs and also knows his way over today's trip.
- 7Too Much Trevor51/100Too Much Trevor is a limited horse who has run 33 times in the last year and shown his best form at this track with a win from 14 starts.
- 8Ajrad49/100Limited performer who has won three times at this track from nine runs but has been out of form for most of this year with a string of modest efforts.
- 9Scarfo48/100Limited horse who has won once from six runs at Chepstow and drops back to a trip where he has also scored.
- 10Tomarlo47/100Tomarlo has shown just enough at this level to finish placed on his only previous visit to Chepstow and he steps up to a trip where he has already placed once.
- 11Jackson Street43/100Limited performer who has been consistent enough in recent starts without winning.
- 12Bear To Dream42/100Limited performer who has won once from two starts at this track and twice from 27 runs at today's trip.
- 13Weston Court34/100Limited horse who has been placed without winning over this trip and has shown bits of form on his five runs at Chepstow without landing a race.
- 14Poet33/100Poet is a limited performer who has shown little spark this year, with a string of modest efforts including two unplaced runs at this track.
The contenders
Green Icon KTB Fit 62/100
Green Icon is a limited performer on the balance of his recent form and overall ratings. He has won twice from nine starts at this trip but arrives in poor heart after a string of six duck eggs. The yard has a solid 14% strike rate here while the jockey is operating close to expectations from plenty of rides at the track. Drawn in stall five, he has no course form on record and remains unproven on the prevailing ground. Trainer John & Rhys Flint and Charles Bishop combine with a 0/8 record at this track. Recent form figures of 000080 underline the modest level he is operating at.
King Of The Dance KTB Fit 56/100
King Of The Dance is a limited handicapper who has run to form without winning on his last four starts. He has course experience having won here from seven runs and has also won at this trip though he is unproven on the ground. First-time headgear is now tried by a yard with a modest 9% strike rate at Chepstow while the 7 lb claimer has had too few rides here to judge. Recent form of 434452 shows he remains competitive at this level without quite getting his head in front. Drawn in three, the seven-year-old brings the benefit of a recent run.
Autumn Angel KTB Fit 52/100
Autumn Angel is a limited performer who has won once from four runs at Chepstow and steps up from six furlongs to a trip where she has also scored. Recent form of 371422 shows she is competitive at this level but the switch to first-time headgear comes after some placed efforts rather than wins. Trainer's modest 9 percent strike rate here is offset by the jockey's stronger 21 percent record at the track though she remains unproven on the prevailing ground. The Tony Carroll and Rossa Ryan combination has a 47/254 record. Drawn in four, she has the benefit of course-and-distance winning form.
Ravenglass KTB Fit 52/100
Ravenglass is a limited performer who has been consistent enough to place in two of his last three starts without winning. He has won over this trip in the past and returns to a track where he has already scored once from six runs. First-time headgear is now applied while the trainer and jockey both hold respectable strike rates at Chepstow. Recent form figures of -47624 reflect a horse who is competitive at this level. The Adrian Wintle and Joe Leavy partnership shows an 11% strike rate. Drawn low in two, he looks sure to be involved.
Ten Club KTB Fit 52/100
Ten Club is a limited performer who has won once over this trip and once at Chepstow. Recent form is modest and the step back up to 7f asks a fresh question after his last run over 5½f. Trainer and jockey both have established records at the track though neither figure stands out. The five-year-old showed little spark in his three runs at the end of last season before two modest efforts this year. Drawn in seven, he has course winning form to his name but needs to improve on recent evidence.
The rest of the field
RomanovichKTB Fit 51/100
Romanovich is a limited horse who has won four times at this track from 14 runs and also knows his way over today's trip. Recent form has been ordinary and he now tries headgear for the first time on ground he has never raced on. Trainer and jockey both have modest strike rates here.
Too Much TrevorKTB Fit 51/100
Too Much Trevor is a limited horse who has run 33 times in the last year and shown his best form at this track with a win from 14 starts. He has been placed at this trip without winning and arrives in reasonable nick on recent form. The yard has a modest record here while the jockey is operating at a similar level.
AjradKTB Fit 49/100
Ajrad is a limited performer who has won three times at this track from nine runs but has been out of form for most of this year with a string of modest efforts. Drops back to his winning trip today and tries headgear for the first time while the trainer has a solid record here. Still looks vulnerable on recent evidence and the jockeys modest strike rate at the course adds little encouragement.
ScarfoKTB Fit 48/100
Scarfo is a limited horse who has won once from six runs at Chepstow and drops back to a trip where he has also scored. Recent form is patchy but he did manage a win and a second in his last three starts. Trainer has a modest 9% strike rate here from a huge sample while the claiming jockey has struck at a 20% rate from just five rides.
TomarloKTB Fit 47/100
Tomarlo has shown just enough at this level to finish placed on his only previous visit to Chepstow and he steps up to a trip where he has already placed once. The limited-class 4yo is now tried in first-time headgear after a mixed run of recent form that includes a win and a third in his last two starts. Trainer Ollie Sangster has a modest 6% strike rate here while Billy Loughnane rides with a solid 19% record at the track.
Jackson StreetKTB Fit 43/100
Jackson Street is a limited performer who has been consistent enough in recent starts without winning. Has won over today's trip but is unproven on this ground and makes his first appearance at Chepstow. Trainer and jockey both have a 3% strike rate at the track.
Bear To DreamKTB Fit 42/100
Bear To Dream is a limited performer who has won once from two starts at this track and twice from 27 runs at today's trip. Recent form has been poor though and the yard's 3% strike rate at Chepstow offers little encouragement. Jockey is also 0 from 6 here while the horse remains unproven on this ground.
Weston CourtKTB Fit 34/100
Weston Court is a limited horse who has been placed without winning over this trip and has shown bits of form on his five runs at Chepstow without landing a race. He drops back from a mile and tries headgear for the first time while Luke Morris rides at a 10 percent strike rate here from a big sample. Trainer's record at the track is too small to judge and the horse remains unproven on this ground.
PoetKTB Fit 33/100
Poet is a limited performer who has shown little spark this year, with a string of modest efforts including two unplaced runs at this track. The yard has a 5% strike-rate here from 22 runs while the jockey fares a bit better at 10% from 189 rides. Stepping up to 7f poses a fresh question though he has placed once at the trip in the past, and he remains unproven on this ground.
KTB verdict
Green Icon is the KTB Selection in a race where the majority of the field are limited performers with plenty of course experience between them. He may be arriving in poor heart after six straight defeats, yet the yard's solid 14% strike rate at Chepstow and the fact he has won twice at this trip give him the edge according to the numbers. The main dangers are likely to come from the course winners King Of The Dance, Autumn Angel and Ravenglass, all of whom are tried in first-time headgear and have shown enough at this level to be competitive. Ten Club cannot be entirely dismissed either on his Chepstow record, while several others lurk with place claims in an open-looking handicap.
KTB Selection Green Icon
This is the narrative read of the 4:25 Chepstow. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Chepstow racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the strongest course record at Chepstow?
Romanovich has won four times at this track from 14 runs.
How many of the principals are being fitted with first-time headgear?
Three of the top five principals are wearing first-time headgear: King Of The Dance, Autumn Angel and Ravenglass.
Which trainer has the best strike rate at Chepstow among those represented?
John & Rhys Flint have a 14% strike rate at Chepstow.
What is the most notable recent form among the principals?
Autumn Angel's recent form of 371422 shows she is competitive at this level.
Which horse steps back up in trip having last run over 5½f?
Ten Club steps back up to 7f after his last run over 5½f.
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