2:22 Nottingham
This Class 4 British Stallion Studs EBF Fillies' Restricted Novice Stakes over 1m2f50y at Nottingham brings together a small but interesting field of five three-year-olds. With no established course form on record for any of the runners and several unproven on the ground, the KTB Fit Scores are tightly bunched between 56 and 39, underlining the open nature of the contest. The principals are headed by the debutant Sax Avoidance, who carries first-time headgear, while Guesstimate and Hauteluce bring placed and winning form respectively into the equation.
How the race shapes up
The race-level pace shape suggests a steadily-run affair with no obvious front-runner declared. Guesstimate and Celestial Cen have shown a tendency to race prominently or in mid-division, while Sax Avoidance from draw 1 could be dropped in behind early. The key question is whether the step up in trip suits those who showed stamina at shorter distances last time and how the first-time headgear runners settle in what could become a tactical race.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Sax Avoidance KTB Selection56/100Sax Avoidance is a debutant with no racecourse form to go on so the assessment rests entirely on his sales and pedigree background.
- 2Guesstimate49/100Modest performer who has shown consistent placed form without winning.
- 3Hauteluce48/100Modest performer who showed little on debut before bolting up in a weak novice last time.
- 4Sweet Horizon45/100Sweet Horizon showed little on debut when finishing eighth over 1m1½f and now steps up in trip for the first time.
- 5Celestial Cen39/100Lightly raced with just two runs this year and a second-place finish at today's trip.
The contenders
Sax Avoidance KTB Fit 56/100
Sax Avoidance is a debutant with no racecourse form to go on so the assessment rests entirely on his sales and pedigree background. He was a breeze-up purchase and first-time headgear is applied which adds another unknown. The trainer has a 33% strike rate at Nottingham with an A/E of 4.34 from just three runs while the jockey has a 10% strike rate at the track from 20 rides. By Saxon Warrior he has a 12% overall win rate attached to the sire. With the yard's modest 0/27 record when teaming up with this jockey the combination brings limited prior success but the selection is taken to overcome the unknowns.
Guesstimate KTB Fit 49/100
Guesstimate is a modest performer who has shown consistent placed form without winning. He has been placed once in two starts at this trip and the yard has a solid 18% strike rate at Nottingham from a big sample of 383 runs. Going suitability remains unknown with only six career runs to date. The trainer and jockey combination has a 6/25 record with an A/E of 1.16 and positive LSP of +£5.50. From draw 3 he should be able to race prominently or handy which could be an asset if the race is not strongly run.
Hauteluce KTB Fit 48/100
Hauteluce is a modest performer who showed little on debut before bolting up in a weak novice last time. She steps up in trip today having looked a stayer at the line over 1m1½f and the yard’s solid 16% strike rate at Nottingham from 146 runs offers some encouragement. Still early days and not fully exposed after just two starts. The trainer and jockey partnership shows a 6/37 record with an A/E of 0.89. With the 5lb claimer aboard she represents a yard that knows this venue well.
The rest of the field
Sweet HorizonKTB Fit 45/100
Sweet Horizon showed little on debut when finishing eighth over 1m1½f and now steps up in trip for the first time. The yard has a modest 6% strike rate from 53 runs at Nottingham and first-time headgear is applied but with only one run on the board this is very much a watching brief.
Celestial CenKTB Fit 39/100
Celestial Cen is lightly raced with just two runs this year and a second-place finish at today's trip. The form is modest so far and the small sample makes it hard to be certain about how he will progress. Trainer has a 7% strike rate from 91 runs at Nottingham.
KTB verdict
Sax Avoidance is the KTB Selection in a race where so many unknowns remain. His pedigree and the application of first-time headgear offer scope for improvement on debut while the trainer's strong A/E at the venue despite a small sample cannot be ignored. Guesstimate brings the most consistent placed form and looks sure to be involved from his handy draw, while Hauteluce is entitled to progress again now stepping up in trip. Sweet Horizon and Celestial Cen add further depth but look vulnerable on what they have shown so far.
KTB Selection Sax Avoidance
This is the narrative read of the 2:22 Nottingham. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Nottingham racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is stepping up in trip having looked a stayer last time?
Hauteluce looked a stayer at the line over 1m1½f last time and now steps up in trip.
How many career runs does Guesstimate have and what is his placed record at this trip?
Guesstimate has had six career runs and has been placed once in two starts at this trip.
What headgear is being applied to Sax Avoidance and Sweet Horizon?
Both Sax Avoidance and Sweet Horizon are wearing first-time headgear.
Which trainer has the strongest strike rate at Nottingham among those represented?
Charlie Pike has a 33% strike rate at Nottingham with an A/E of 4.34 from three runs.
Which runner has recorded a second-place finish at today's trip?
Celestial Cen has a second-place finish at today's trip from his two runs this year.
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