2:52 Nottingham
This Class 4 EBF Maiden Stakes over 6f18y at Nottingham features a small but open-looking field of five two-year-olds, most of whom have limited public form or are making their debut. The KTB Fit scores are tightly bunched between 53 and 44, underlining the amount of guesswork involved, with three previous runners and two newcomers all carrying unknowns about their ability and preferences on the surface. Ralph Beckett’s Gold Reef City heads the KTB rankings on the back of a modest debut effort, while the Simon and Ed Crisford newcomer Tawakal is prominent in the market and benefits from the booking of James Doyle.
How the race shapes up
With only five runners and no strong front-runners declared, the pace shape is expected to be on the modest side and could turn into something of a sprint for the line. Gold Reef City and Supreme Star have both shown early pace on their sole starts, while the two debutants are open to any run style. The key question is whether any horse can impose a clear gallop or whether the race will be decided by a late dash up the straight, with draw and positioning likely to prove important given the tight nature of the field.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Gold Reef City KTB Selection53/100Ralph Beckett's lightly raced 2-year-old showed little on debut when finishing seventh over this trip.
- 2Whiskey Galore48/100Whiskey Galore showed little on debut over 7f and now drops back to an untried 6f.
- 3Tawakal47/100Tawakal is a newcomer from the Simon and Ed Crisford yard who hold a 14 percent strike rate from 79 runs at Nottingham.
- 4Halloween Jack47/100Ed Walker is in solid form at Nottingham with a 16% strike rate from 146 runs.
- 5Supreme Star44/100Supreme Star showed only modest form when finishing sixth on debut here over this trip.
The contenders
Gold Reef City KTB Fit 53/100
Gold Reef City is the KTB Selection. Ralph Beckett’s lightly raced two-year-old showed little when finishing seventh on debut over this trip, leaving both his ability and going preference unknown on such a small sample. The yard has an 18 percent strike rate at Nottingham from 372 runs and teams up with Rhys Clutterbuck, who holds a 14 percent strike rate at the track from 28 rides. The colt drops in class here, which may help, though he remains unproven on the ground and has no course form to his name. Connections will be hoping for a step forward from that initial effort.
Whiskey Galore KTB Fit 48/100
Whiskey Galore showed little on debut over 7f and now drops back to an untried 6f. The small sample means nothing can be taken as read about his ability or preferences. Trainer Michael Bell has a 12 percent strike rate at Nottingham from 614 runs, though the trainer-and-jockey combination shows a modest 6 percent strike rate from 16 runs with an A/E of 0.75. Jockey Ross Coakley has a 9 percent strike rate at the track from 55 rides. This lightly raced colt therefore arrives with low data confidence overall.
Tawakal KTB Fit 47/100
Tawakal is a newcomer from the Simon and Ed Crisford yard, who hold a 14 percent strike rate at Nottingham from 79 runs. James Doyle takes the ride, a jockey with a 20 percent strike rate at the track from 329 rides, and the pair combine with a 21 percent strike rate from 316 runs overall. By Starspangledbanner, the horse has an 11 percent overall win rate among 7901 runners for the sire, though he has no course win on record. With no public trials or breeze-up figures available, the assessment rests on pedigree and stable strength, albeit with low data confidence.
The rest of the field
Halloween JackKTB Fit 47/100
Halloween Jack is a debutant from the Ed Walker yard, who are in solid form at Nottingham with a 16 percent strike rate from 146 runs. By Starman, the horse has a 12 percent overall win rate among 773 runners for the sire, though any judgement on his ability remains tentative given only low data confidence is available. The trainer-and-jockey combination shows a 16 percent strike rate from 37 runs.
Supreme StarKTB Fit 44/100
Supreme Star showed only modest form when finishing sixth on debut here over this trip and now steps up in class. The Marco Botti yard has a 10 percent strike rate at Nottingham from 213 runs, while jockey Benoit de la Sayette holds a 13 percent strike rate at the track from 46 rides. The colt has course form, having run once here without placing, and remains unproven on the ground with everything else unknown on such a small base.
KTB verdict
Gold Reef City is the KTB Selection and sets the standard on the modest form of his debut seventh, with the drop in class offering hope of improvement for a yard that operates at 18 percent at Nottingham. The small sample leaves plenty to prove, yet he edges the principals on what is known. Tawakal is the main danger as a well-related newcomer from a strong stable with James Doyle on board, while Whiskey Galore, Halloween Jack and Supreme Star all bring plenty of unknowns and lower KTB Fit scores into the equation.
KTB Selection Gold Reef City
This is the narrative read of the 2:52 Nottingham. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Nottingham racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the highest KTB Fit Score and is the selection?
Gold Reef City has the highest KTB Fit Score of 53/100 and is the KTB Selection.
What is the recent form of the two horses with previous runs?
Gold Reef City has recent form figures of 7 and Supreme Star has recent form figures of 6.
Which jockey has the strongest strike rate at Nottingham among those riding?
James Doyle has a 20 percent strike rate at Nottingham from 329 rides.
How many of these runners are debutants?
Two runners are debutants: Tawakal and Halloween Jack.
Which horse has course form and what was its result?
Supreme Star has course form, having finished sixth on his sole start here.
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