5:35 Wolverhampton (AW)
This Class 4 handicap at Wolverhampton over 7f36y brings together ten three-year-olds on the all-weather surface. The KTB numbers identify Bone Marra as the clear top pick on a Fit rating of 65, well clear of the next group clustered between 57 and 52, underlining his course record and recent progress as the dominant positive. Several runners are dropping in class while others step up, and with no confirmed going preferences the surface and trip will be the main tests.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape points to a contested lead with several forward-goers likely to line up early. Bone Marra from draw 2 can track the pace comfortably, while high-drawn runners such as Do Bronxs and Special Dividend may push forward. The key question is whether the race develops into a true test at this trip or if the rail bias at Wolverhampton allows the prominent runners to dominate.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Bone Marra KTB Selection65/100Bone Marra is a fair performer who has won both starts at this track and arrives in decent form after a recent victory.
- 2Do Bronxs57/100Fair performer who has shown some consistency on turf but makes his first start on the all-weather today.
- 3Applesandpears57/100Fair performer who has won at this trip.
- 4Special Dividend54/100Fair performer who won on his sole previous visit to Wolverhampton.
- 5Augustus Gloop52/100Fair performer who has shown consistent form this year, including a placed effort on his only previous visit to Wolverhampton.
- 6Deluded51/100Deluded is a fair 3 year old who has shown consistent form this year with three placed efforts from his last four starts.
- 7Boy Named Sioux50/100Modest performer who won over this trip on turf last summer before a respectable sixth in a nursery at York.
- 8Espona Bay45/100Modest performer who has won once from two starts at Wolverhampton and also has a win at today's 7f trip from three attempts.
- 9Hungarian42/100Hungarian is a fair performer who has shown consistent placed form at this level without winning.
- 10Trust Amy38/100Modest performer who has been below form this year and steps up from 6f today having failed to trouble the judge on his only previous 7f run.
The contenders
Bone Marra KTB Fit 65/100
Bone Marra is a fair performer who has won both starts at this track and arrives in decent form after a recent victory. He steps up to 7f for the first time today having won once at the trip from three attempts while the first-time headgear is an unknown. The yard holds a solid record here and the jockey's long-term strike rate is modest but the horse's course record and recent ratings give this assessment decent backing. His recent form of 31-201 shows progressive signs and the trainer-jockey combination has produced an 8/29 record with a positive A/E of 1.60. Unproven on the ground but with two course wins already he looks the one to beat from stall 2.
Do Bronxs KTB Fit 57/100
Do Bronxs is a fair performer who has shown some consistency on turf but makes his first start on the all-weather today. He has been placed once in three runs at this trip though has looked limited at it and now tries headgear for the first time. Trainer and jockey both have modest strike rates here. His form of 7-5725 suggests he can be competitive when things fall right though he is dropping in class. The yard's 10% strike rate at Wolverhampton from 867 runs and the jockey's 7% from 244 rides add caution to his claims.
Applesandpears KTB Fit 57/100
Applesandpears is a fair performer who has won at this trip. Recent efforts have been a bit mixed but the return to 7f looks a plus and the yard has a solid record here. Jockey's strike-rate at the track is nothing special. His form figures of 11-836 reflect that inconsistency yet the drop in class may help him find his best. The trainer's 16% strike rate at Wolverhampton from 79 runs is a positive while the jockey operates at 10% from 763 rides.
Special Dividend KTB Fit 54/100
Special Dividend is a fair performer who won on his sole previous visit to Wolverhampton. He has posted two placed efforts at this trip but was well held on his return from a break last time and now drops back from 1m. First-time headgear is fitted while the yard's modest record here adds a note of caution. His form of 1137-0 shows earlier promise that has yet to be fully recaptured. The trainer-jockey partnership stands at 1/14 with an A/E of 0.73 and the yard's 10% strike rate at the track from 126 runs is another factor to weigh.
Augustus Gloop KTB Fit 52/100
Augustus Gloop is a fair performer who has shown consistent form this year, including a placed effort on his only previous visit to Wolverhampton. He steps up to 7f for the first time today having last run over 6f, which asks a fresh question of him. Trainer James Fanshawe has a 16% strike rate here from 484 runs while Kaiya Fraser operates at 11% from 82 rides. His form of 21-267 underlines steady efforts without quite landing a big one lately. The placed effort on his sole course visit adds interest from draw 6.
The rest of the field
DeludedKTB Fit 51/100
Deluded is a fair 3 year old who has shown consistent form this year with three placed efforts from his last four starts. He has already won over this trip and at this track from limited attempts at both, though he steps back up to 7f today having last run over 6f. The trainer holds a 14% strike rate here from 222 runs while the jockey is operating at 13% from 201 rides.
Boy Named SiouxKTB Fit 50/100
Boy Named Sioux is a modest performer who won over this trip on turf last summer before a respectable sixth in a nursery at York. Dropped back from 1m for his return and showed enough at this track last time to suggest he remains competitive off his current mark. The Faheys have an 11% strike rate here from nine runners while Tindall's 14% record from 43 rides adds some encouragement.
Espona BayKTB Fit 45/100
Espona Bay is a modest performer who has won once from two starts at Wolverhampton and also has a win at today's 7f trip from three attempts. Dropping back from 1m should suit having just won over that longer distance last time, though the yard's modest 7% strike rate here from a huge sample is a negative. Jockey's 10% record at the track offers some balance and the horse arrives in decent form.
HungarianKTB Fit 42/100
Hungarian is a fair performer who has shown consistent placed form at this level without winning. He drops back to 7f today having been placed at the trip before, though his latest efforts came over longer distances. The yard's modest 4% strike rate here and the jockey's 5% record add little encouragement, while first-time headgear is an unknown on a horse with only six career runs.
Trust AmyKTB Fit 38/100
Trust Amy is a modest performer who has been below form this year and steps up from 6f today having failed to trouble the judge on his only previous 7f run. First time at Wolverhampton adds another unknown while the trainer's modest 4% strike rate here from 50 runs is another negative. Jockey has a better 9% record at the track from 180 rides but overall this looks a stiff task.
KTB verdict
Bone Marra stands out as the KTB Selection. His two wins from two starts at Wolverhampton, recent victory and fair level of ability give him the strongest profile in the race. The first-time headgear remains an unknown and the step up to 7f asks a question, yet the combination of course form and yard record here makes him hard to oppose. The main dangers are likely to come from Do Bronxs and Applesandpears, both dropping in class and with each having shown enough at the trip to suggest they can feature if the race sets up favourably.
KTB Selection Bone Marra
This is the narrative read of the 5:35 Wolverhampton (AW). For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Wolverhampton (AW) racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the best course record at Wolverhampton?
Bone Marra has won both of his two starts at the track.
How many of these runners are wearing headgear for the first time?
Bone Marra, Do Bronxs, Special Dividend and Hungarian are all wearing first-time headgear.
Which trainer has the strongest strike rate at Wolverhampton among those represented?
Ollie Sangster has a 17% strike rate at Wolverhampton from 106 runs.
Which runners are dropping in class for this race?
Do Bronxs, Applesandpears and Special Dividend are dropping in class.
Has any horse in the field won over this course and distance combination before?
Bone Marra and Deluded have both won over this trip and at this track.
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