5:45 Curragh
The 5.45 at the Curragh is a competitive 0- something WTW Willis Handicap over the minimum trip on good to firm ground, featuring an 18-runner field where the KTB numbers point to a tight contest among several fair performers. Lamar Canyon heads the KTB Fit ratings on 62, just ahead of Daneh Of Dandy on 60, with the next three principals all clustered between 55 and 53. The race lacks a clear pace-setter according to the muddling, tactical pace shape, which should favour those able to race close to the speed from their draws.
How the race shapes up
With no obvious front-runner the pace is expected to be muddling and tactical, suiting runners ridden close to the pace rather than those held up. Several principals and field runners, including prominent types such as Apache Outlaw and Gonna Be Golden, should be able to secure forward positions, while the likes of Final Melody are usually held up and will need the race to fall right. The key question is whether the wide-drawn selection can overcome stall 18 in a race where those on the inner, such as Namiid from draw one, may find it easier to secure a handy spot.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Lamar Canyon KTB Selection62/100Lamar Canyon is a fair 3 year old who showed sharp improvement when winning over this trip on his penultimate start.
- 2Daneh Of Dandy60/100Fair performer who has won once over this trip on good to firm.
- 3Namiid55/100Fair performer who has shown consistent form this year, including a win at this trip.
- 4Real Encounter54/100Fair performer who has shown consistent placed form at this track, finishing second and third from two runs here.
- 5Tawaazon53/100Modest performer who has won twice at this track from eight runs and also has a solid record at today's trip with four wins from 14 starts.
- 6Mary Shoelaces52/100Modest performer who has won twice at this track from nine runs and also has three wins at today's 5f trip.
- 7Final Melody50/100Fair performer who has shown consistent form at this trip, winning once from nine attempts and finishing second on three other occasions.
- 8Imperial Dream49/100Imperial Dream is a modest performer who has won once in five runs at this track.
- 9Focaccia49/100Focaccia is a fair sort who has shown enough to be competitive at this level.
- 10Harry's Hill48/100Modest performer with a solid record at this trip having won seven times from 49 starts.
- 11Sovereign Cry47/100Sovereign Cry is a fair performer who has won twice over this trip from four attempts and showed his best form when taking a handicap at Naas last time.
- 12Apache Outlaw46/100Modest performer who has won once from 19 starts at the Curragh but is now 0-14 here since 2022.
- 13Happy Henry44/100Happy Henry is a modest performer with a solid recent record of 233131 that includes two wins at this trip from 11 attempts.
- 14Gonna Be Golden44/100Modest performer who has failed to place in six starts since debut and was well beaten both previous runs at the Curragh.
- 15Carrigans Grove42/100Modest performer who has won once in five runs at this track and also has two wins from six starts at this trip.
- 16Nouvel Espoir41/100Modest performer who has been placed on his last two runs here without winning in ten starts at the track.
- 17Absoluteassignment38/100Modest performer who has shown little spark in five runs to date and was well held when last seen over 6f.
- 18Nebrook Star35/100Modest performer who has failed to win in five starts at this trip.
The contenders
Lamar Canyon KTB Fit 62/100
Lamar Canyon is a fair three-year-old who showed sharp improvement when winning over this trip on his penultimate start. He failed to back that up last time though and now has to overcome a wide draw in a race with plenty of pace on. The trainer has no recorded runs at the track while the jockey is 0 from 14 rides here. Recent form reads 007-18 and he carries a KTB Fit rating of 62. The yard is 2/5 with this jockey combination and the horse remains unproven on good to firm ground with no course form on record.
Daneh Of Dandy KTB Fit 60/100
Daneh Of Dandy is a fair performer who has won once over this trip on good to firm. Recent form has been patchy with a string of below-par efforts after a promising start to the year. Trainer strikes at a solid 18% here while the jockey is a regular at the track though operating at a lower rate. The three-year-old has form figures of 58-505 and a KTB Fit of 60. He is drawn in stall 11 with the yard recording 173/620 overall and an A/E of 1.04.
Namiid KTB Fit 55/100
Namiid is a fair performer who has shown consistent form this year, including a win at this trip. Drawn in stall one and has some course experience having finished third here last time out, though first-time headgear is now applied. Trainer has a solid 10% strike rate at the Curragh from a large sample while the jockey is still seeking her first win from 26 rides at the track. Recent form is 4-3142 and the KTB Fit stands at 55. The three-year-old is unproven on good to firm ground.
Real Encounter KTB Fit 54/100
Real Encounter is a fair performer who has shown consistent placed form at this track, finishing second and third from two runs here. Drops back to 5f having won at the trip earlier in the year though the recent efforts came over 6f. First-time headgear is now applied and the trainer and jockey both operate at a 9% strike rate at Curragh. Form reads -21623 with a KTB Fit of 54. The three-year-old has been placed once from one run on good to firm and has course figures of 3rd and 2nd.
Tawaazon KTB Fit 53/100
Tawaazon is a modest performer who has won twice at this track from eight runs and also has a solid record at today's trip with four wins from 14 starts. Recent form is ordinary and he showed little on his only previous go on good to firm ground. First-time headgear is now tried while the trainer holds a strong record here though the jockey's strike rate is low. The eight-year-old has form figures of -40295 and a KTB Fit of 53. He is drawn in stall 16 with the yard at 14% strike rate from 28 runs at the Curragh.
The rest of the field
Mary ShoelacesKTB Fit 52/100
Mary Shoelaces is a modest performer who has won twice at this track from nine runs and also has three wins at today's 5f trip. Drops back in distance having last run over 6f while first-time headgear is now tried. Trainer and jockey both record a solid 1.02 A/E at Curragh though the yard's 7% strike rate from 134 runs is no better than average. KTB Fit is 52 with recent form of 91-067.
Final MelodyKTB Fit 50/100
Final Melody is a fair performer who has shown consistent form at this trip, winning once from nine attempts and finishing second on three other occasions. Comes here off a poor return run and is unproven on good to firm ground. Trainer and jockey both have modest records at Curragh. The three-year-old is usually held up, has form of 2212-9 and a KTB Fit of 50.
Imperial DreamKTB Fit 49/100
Imperial Dream is a modest performer who has won once in five runs at this track. He has been out of form on his last two starts and now drops back to an untried 5f trip which asks a fresh question. Trainer Patrick J Flynn has a 6% strike rate from 241 runs here while jockey Alan Persse has a 5% strike rate from 56 rides. KTB Fit is 49 with form of 240-00.
FocacciaKTB Fit 49/100
Focaccia is a fair sort who has shown enough to be competitive at this level. He has placed once from three runs at the Curragh and has won at this trip from three attempts though his recent form has been mixed. The trainer has a 7 percent strike rate here from 339 runs while the jockey is operating at 5 percent from 412 rides. Recent form reads 372071 with a KTB Fit of 49.
Harry's HillKTB Fit 48/100
Harry's Hill is a modest performer with a solid record at this trip having won seven times from 49 starts. Has won twice from 18 runs at the Curragh but his recent form of 670606 is uninspiring and he has failed to place in two runs on good to firm ground. First-time headgear is now applied. KTB Fit is 48.
Sovereign CryKTB Fit 47/100
Sovereign Cry is a fair performer who has won twice over this trip from four attempts and showed his best form when taking a handicap at Naas last time. He has no experience on good to firm ground which leaves that side of things unproven, while his sole run here resulted in a midfield finish. The trainer holds a modest 7 percent strike rate at Curragh from 60 runs and the claiming jockey is still seeking a first winner from 14 rides at the track. KTB Fit is 47 with form of -04691.
Apache OutlawKTB Fit 46/100
Apache Outlaw is a modest performer who has won once from 19 starts at the Curragh but is now 0-14 here since 2022. Drops back to his winning 5f trip having last run over 6½f though he is unproven on good to firm ground. First-time headgear is tried by a yard with a modest 4% strike rate at the track. Usually races prominently and carries a KTB Fit of 46.
Happy HenryKTB Fit 44/100
Happy Henry is a modest performer with a solid recent record of 233131 that includes two wins at this trip from 11 attempts. He has been tried only once at the Curragh where he finished sixth and now goes on good to firm ground for the first time so that remains an unknown. The trainer has an 8 percent strike rate here from 659 runs while the jockey is on 6 percent from 699 rides and first-time headgear is now applied. KTB Fit is 44.
Gonna Be GoldenKTB Fit 44/100
Gonna Be Golden is a modest performer who has failed to place in six starts since debut and was well beaten both previous runs at the Curragh. Dropping back to 5f is an unknown and first-time headgear is another question mark on a horse with limited overall evidence. Trainer's modest 4% strike rate at the track adds little confidence. Usually races prominently and has a KTB Fit of 44.
Carrigans GroveKTB Fit 42/100
Carrigans Grove is a modest performer who has won once in five runs at this track and also has two wins from six starts at this trip. Drops back from 7f today having shown very little spark in recent runs and his sole attempt on good to firm ground brought no joy. First-time headgear is now applied. KTB Fit is 42 with form of -84007.
Nouvel EspoirKTB Fit 41/100
Nouvel Espoir is a modest performer who has been placed on his last two runs here without winning in ten starts at the track. He has won on good to firm ground and at this trip though his recent form has been a bit up and down. Trainer is still seeking a first Curragh winner from 23 attempts while the jockey has a solid 12 percent strike rate at the venue. Form reads 236414 and KTB Fit is 41.
AbsoluteassignmentKTB Fit 38/100
Absoluteassignment is a modest performer who has shown little spark in five runs to date and was well held when last seen over 6f. Drops back to an untried 5f today which asks a fresh question. Trainer strikes at 6% here from 199 runs while jockey is 9% from 1991 rides. The three-year-old has a KTB Fit of 38 with form of 07727.
Nebrook StarKTB Fit 35/100
Nebrook Star is a modest performer who has failed to win in five starts at this trip. Recent form of 4034-6 shows consistency without any real spark and the first-time headgear is now being reached for. Trainer is 0-34 at the Curragh while the jockey has had too few rides here to judge. KTB Fit is 35.
KTB verdict
Lamar Canyon is the KTB Selection. He showed sharp improvement to win over this trip on his penultimate start and remains the top-rated on KTB Fit at 62 despite the wide draw and lack of track experience. The muddling pace shape should help those close to the speed, yet the selection will need to overcome stall 18. Main dangers include Namiid from the inside draw with first-time headgear and consistent recent form, Real Encounter who has placed form at the track and also tries headgear, and the solid yard of Daneh Of Dandy who has won on good to firm at the trip.
KTB Selection Lamar Canyon
This is the narrative read of the 5:45 Curragh. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Curragh racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the highest KTB Fit rating and what is it?
Lamar Canyon has the highest KTB Fit rating at 62/100.
How many runners have first-time headgear and which are they?
Seven runners have first-time headgear: Namiid, Real Encounter, Tawaazon, Mary Shoelaces, Harry's Hill, Happy Henry, Gonna Be Golden and Carrigans Grove, plus Nebrook Star.
Which horse has course wins at the Curragh and how many?
Tawaazon has won twice from eight runs at the Curragh; Mary Shoelaces has won twice from nine; Harry's Hill has won twice from 18; Imperial Dream has won once from five; Apache Outlaw has won once from 19; Carrigans Grove has won once from five.
Who has the best trainer strike rate at the Curragh among the principals?
Tawaazon's trainer John Andrew Kinsella has a 14% strike rate at the Curragh from 28 runs.
Which runners are unproven on good to firm ground?
Lamar Canyon, Namiid, Final Melody, Apache Outlaw, Happy Henry, Gonna Be Golden, Sovereign Cry and Absoluteassignment are unproven on good to firm ground.
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