3:53 Ripon
This Class 4 handicap over 1m1f170y at Ripon features a compact field of six runners on good ground. The KTB Fit Scores are tightly bunched at the top, with Midnight Strike heading the numbers on 63, followed by Lucky Hero and Wild Violet both on 55 and Qitaal on 51. With the pace shape rated unclear due to limited run-style evidence, the race lacks a clear blueprint and could throw up tactical surprises.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is unclear with low confidence, as there is not enough run-style data across the field to form a firm view. Poet's Dawn is the only horse noted as tending to make the running or race prominently, though that assessment itself carries limited evidence. The key question is whether the race develops into a test of stamina up the trip for some or becomes a more tactical affair, with the outcome potentially decided by which horse adapts best to the uncertain early tempo.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Midnight Strike KTB Selection63/100Midnight Strike is a fair performer who showed improved form to win last time out over 1m.
- 2Lucky Hero55/100Fair performer who has shown his best at this track when runner-up here on his only visit.
- 3Wild Violet55/100Fair performer who has shown steady improvement in three starts this year, finishing third then second before winning last time.
- 4Qitaal51/100Fair performer who has been knocking on the door of late with three placed efforts from his last four starts.
- 5Poet's Dawn45/100Poet's Dawn is a modest 11-year-old who has won once from 16 runs at Ripon and steps up in trip today having scored twice at this distance.
- 6Yermanthere45/100Modest performer who has won once from two starts at this track and has also scored at today's trip.
The contenders
Midnight Strike KTB Fit 63/100
Midnight Strike is a fair performer who showed improved form to win last time out over 1m. The yard has a solid 20% strike rate at Ripon from 20 runs and Silvestre De Sousa brings a 23% strike rate at the track from 260 rides, though the trainer-jockey combination is currently 0 from 5. This one has never placed in five runs on good ground and steps up in trip for the first time today while also stepping up in class. First-time headgear is now applied on its first visit to the course. The KTB Fit Score of 63 marks him out as the top-rated in the race.
Lucky Hero KTB Fit 55/100
Lucky Hero is a fair performer who has shown his best at this track when runner-up here on his only visit. He has been in and out this season with a win and two modest efforts from his last three starts while dropping back in trip last time. Stepping up markedly in distance now asks a fresh question of him. The David O'Meara yard posts a 16% strike rate at Ripon from 779 runs with an A/E of 0.99, while Mark Winn is 11% from 65 rides at the venue. He has placed on two of four starts on good ground and holds a KTB Fit Score of 55.
Wild Violet KTB Fit 55/100
Wild Violet is a fair performer who has shown steady improvement in three starts this year, finishing third then second before winning last time. She has already won on good ground and at today's trip, with stall four offering a decent enough position. Trainer Michael Bell has a 12% strike rate at Ripon from 217 runs while Oisin Orr brings a 15% strike rate from 82 rides at the track, though the pair are currently 0 from 6 together. Dropping in class looks a positive and the KTB Fit Score of 55 keeps her firmly in the mix.
Qitaal KTB Fit 51/100
Qitaal is a fair performer who has been knocking on the door of late with three placed efforts from his last four starts. He has shown his liking for this track when second here on his only visit and has also placed four times from 12 starts on good ground. Trip poses no problem as he has won over this distance though he is now on a long losing run. The Charlie Johnston yard is 11% at Ripon from 99 runs and Connor Beasley 10% from 251 rides, with the combination holding a 16% strike rate overall. The KTB Fit Score is 51.
The rest of the field
Poet's DawnKTB Fit 45/100
Poet's Dawn is a modest 11-year-old who has won once from 16 runs at Ripon and steps up in trip today having scored twice at this distance. He has three wins from 21 starts on good ground and the yard's 10 percent strike rate from over 2,000 runs at the track is in line with expectations. First-time headgear is now fitted on a horse whose recent form has been patchy.
YermanthereKTB Fit 45/100
Yermanthere is a modest performer who has won once from two starts at this track and has also scored at today's trip. Recent form of 5-0512 shows he can be competitive at this level when on a going day though consistency remains an issue. Trainer's 10% strike-rate at Ripon from a large sample and the horse's two wins from 14 starts on good ground are both fair rather than strong.
KTB verdict
Midnight Strike is the KTB Selection. He comes here on the back of an improved winning effort over a mile and the first-time headgear combined with the yard's strong record at Ripon gives every reason to believe he can build on that. Silvestre De Sousa's booking adds further appeal on a day when the uncertain pace shape may play to his strengths. The main dangers are Wild Violet, who arrives in progressive form and has already won over the trip on good ground, and Qitaal, who has been consistently knocking on the door and knows the track well. Lucky Hero cannot be entirely dismissed given his previous placing here, but the step up in trip asks a significant new question.
KTB Selection Midnight Strike
This is the narrative read of the 3:53 Ripon. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Ripon racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is stepping up markedly in distance?
Lucky Hero is stepping up markedly in distance now.
Who is the only horse with a noted front-running style?
Poet's Dawn tends to make the running or race on the pace.
Which runner is wearing first-time headgear?
Both Midnight Strike and Poet's Dawn are fitted with first-time headgear.
How many placed efforts has Qitaal had from his last four starts?
Qitaal has had three placed efforts from his last four starts.
Which horse has won on good ground and at today's trip?
Wild Violet has already won on good ground and at today's trip.
18+. Analysis and entertainment only — no guarantee of profit. KTB race previews are published for interest and are not betting advice. Only ever stake what you can comfortably afford to lose, and set your own limits. Free, confidential help: the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133 (GamCare.org.uk); in Ireland, the GamblingCare.ie helpline on 1800 936 725. Self-exclude at any time via GAMSTOP.
More from Kickthebookies