4:25 Ripon
A compact Class 4 handicap over the mile at Ripon on good ground brings together seven runners where the KTB Fit scores suggest a competitive but not especially deep event. Jimmy Speaking tops the ratings on 75 and is the clear KTB Selection, while the next three principals sit between 63 and 47. The remainder of the field are rated modestly between 45 and 43, underlining that the race may revolve around the top four who are dropping in class or showing recent spark.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is unclear with low confidence, as there is simply not enough run-style evidence across the field to form a firm view. With only Jesmond Dawn identified as usually held up and producing its effort late, the race is likely to lack a strong pace influence one way or the other. This leaves the key question as whether the prominent or midfield runners can dictate matters without facing an obvious challenge from behind, or whether the lack of pace will allow a closer to capitalise late.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Jimmy Speaking KTB Selection75/100Fair performer who arrives in decent nick after a win and a second from his last three starts.
- 2Cadarn63/100Fair performer who arrives in form after a clear-cut win last time.
- 3Farasi Lane54/100Fair performer who has won twice at this trip from 31 attempts but has been out of form for some time with a string of modest efforts.
- 4Sir Paul Ramsey47/100Fair performer who has won twice on good ground at this trip.
- 5Garden Oasis45/100Modest 11-year-old who has won four times at this track from 20 starts and also has a solid record at today's trip.
- 6Jesmond Dawn45/100Modest performer who has won twice at Ripon from seven starts and also has two wins at this trip from 17 attempts.
- 7Ben Lawers43/100Fair performer who has won once over today's 1m trip but arrives in patchy form after a string of modest efforts.
The contenders
Jimmy Speaking KTB Fit 75/100
Jimmy Speaking is a fair performer who arrives in decent nick after a win and a second from his last three starts. He drops back to a trip he has won over before and acts on good ground with a solid record of one win from three starts. The trainer maintains a 20% strike rate at Ripon with an A/E of 1.5 from 15 runs while the jockey has a 23% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 1.2 from 260 rides. This will be the horse's first run at Ripon and he is dropping in class from a draw of one. His recent form figures read 0-1129.
Cadarn KTB Fit 63/100
Cadarn is a fair performer who arrives in form after a clear-cut win last time. He has won three times at this trip and handles good ground with one win and one placing from four starts. This is his first run at Ripon and he is dropping in class while wearing first-time headgear. The trainer has an 11% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 0.91 from 639 runs and the jockey has a 10% strike rate with an A/E of 0.99 from 154 rides. His recent form figures read 4-0501.
Farasi Lane KTB Fit 54/100
Farasi Lane is a fair performer who has won twice at this trip from 31 attempts but has been out of form for some time with a string of modest efforts. He is placed once from seven starts on good ground so the surface is no problem. First-time headgear is now tried and the yard has a modest 5% strike rate at Ripon with an A/E of 0.65 from 374 runs. The jockey has an 11% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 1.47 from 55 rides. His recent form figures read 146555.
Sir Paul Ramsey KTB Fit 47/100
Sir Paul Ramsey is a fair performer who has won twice on good ground at this trip. Recent form has been patchy with a string of mid-field finishes and he makes his debut at Ripon today. The yard has an 11% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 0.67 from 99 runs while the jockey is 0% from one ride at Ripon. He has two wins and two placings from seven starts on good ground. His recent form figures read 374067.
The rest of the field
Garden OasisKTB Fit 45/100
Garden Oasis is a modest 11-year-old who has won four times at this track from 20 starts and also has a solid record at today's trip. Recent form is ordinary and first-time headgear is now reached for after a string of placed efforts failed to yield a win. The trainer has a 10% strike rate at Ripon with an A/E of 0.84 from a huge sample of 2381 runs.
Jesmond DawnKTB Fit 45/100
Jesmond Dawn is a modest performer who has won twice at Ripon from seven starts and also has two wins at this trip from 17 attempts. Recent form of 72351 shows consistency without much sparkle and the yard has an 11% strike rate at the track. Good ground has produced one win and six places from ten runs so conditions should be fine. He is usually held up and produces his effort late.
Ben LawersKTB Fit 43/100
Ben Lawers is a fair performer who has won once over today's 1m trip but arrives in patchy form after a string of modest efforts. He drops back from 1m2½f while wearing first-time headgear. The trainer has yet to strike at Ripon from 14 attempts.
KTB verdict
Jimmy Speaking stands out at the head of the KTB Fit ratings and is the selection. He arrives in decent nick with a win and a second among his last three starts, drops to a trip he has won over before, and acts on good ground. The trainer and jockey both have above-average records at Ripon which adds further appeal from stall one. His main dangers are likely to be Cadarn, who arrives off a clear-cut win and now tries first-time headgear, and Farasi Lane who attempts to revive with the same aid. Sir Paul Ramsey cannot be entirely dismissed if he can rediscover his good-ground form.
KTB Selection Jimmy Speaking
This is the narrative read of the 4:25 Ripon. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Ripon racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is dropping in class and has the highest KTB Fit Score?
Jimmy Speaking with a KTB Fit of 75/100.
How many wins has Garden Oasis recorded at Ripon?
Four wins from 20 starts.
Which runner is stepping up in class and usually held up?
Jesmond Dawn.
What is the trainer's strike rate at Ripon for the yard of Farasi Lane?
5% strike rate with an A/E of 0.65 from 374 runs.
Which horse has won twice at this trip and is making its Ripon debut while wearing first-time headgear?
Cadarn.
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