8:08 Nottingham
This Class 4 fillies' novice stakes over 1m0f75y at Nottingham on good to firm ground brings together a small but interesting field of five three-year-olds, most with limited experience. The KTB Fit Scores are tightly bunched between 48 and 60, underlining that this remains an open-looking heat where potential and yard form will count for plenty. Sedeirah tops the KTB rankings on the back of promise shown in two starts, while the two newcomers from the Varian yard add an unknown element that cannot be ignored.
How the race shapes up
With only five runners the pace shape is modest and likely to be on the steady side. Thursday Girl from stall one and Sedeirah in two are both inclined to race prominently or track the pace, which should allow them an economical run. Moonlit Surf tends to come from off the pace, while the two newcomers could slot in anywhere; the key question is whether the race will be run at a sufficient tempo to give those ridden more patiently a chance to close.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Sedeirah KTB Selection60/100Sedeirah showed some promise when second on her latest start over this trip.
- 2Thursday Girl54/100Fair performer who has finished second on her last three starts, all over this sort of trip.
- 3Moonlit Surf51/100Modest performer who has shown little progress across four runs and failed to land a blow at this trip on his last three starts.
- 4Stellar50/100Stellar is a newcomer from a yard that operates at a solid 20% strike rate at Nottingham from a big sample.
- 5Effetto48/100Roger Varian has a solid 20% strike-rate at Nottingham from a big sample and sends this newcomer out on good-to-firm ground.
The contenders
Sedeirah KTB Fit 60/100
Sedeirah shaped with promise when second over this trip on her latest start and has only two career runs behind her, leaving her open to further improvement. Edward Bethell’s 24% strike rate at Nottingham from 49 runs is a notable plus, and the booking of Cian Horgan is also positive given his 17% strike rate at the track from a small but encouraging sample. The drop in class looks suitable, though she has just the one run on good to firm and no course form to speak of. Overall this still looks very much a work in progress, yet the KTB Fit score of 60 and the yard’s local record make her the one to beat.
Thursday Girl KTB Fit 54/100
Thursday Girl arrives in solid form having finished second on her last three starts, all over this sort of trip, and looks a fair performer on that evidence. Stall one is a plus at a venue where Ed Walker has a 16% strike rate from a sizeable 148 runs. Ashley Lewis takes the ride but the 5lb claimer’s record at Nottingham is modest from limited rides, and she remains unproven on good to firm. With four runs already under her belt she brings the most experience to the table, yet the small-sample going note leaves a slight question mark hanging over her.
Moonlit Surf KTB Fit 51/100
Moonlit Surf is a modest performer who has shown little progress in four starts and failed to land a blow at this trip on his last three outings. Stall three looks fine and Owen Burrows posts a solid 28% strike rate at Nottingham from 50 runs, which offers some encouragement. Callum Rodriguez has a more average 16% record at the track from 61 rides. With only four career runs on the board the jury remains out on whether good to firm will suit, and the KTB Fit score of 51 reflects that there is still some way to go.
The rest of the field
StellarKTB Fit 50/100
Stellar is a newcomer from Roger Varian, whose 20% strike rate at Nottingham from 266 runs commands respect. The jockey is operating below par here with an 8% strike rate from 185 rides, there is no course win on record, and with no racecourse form the colt must be judged almost entirely on pedigree and sales background.
EffettoKTB Fit 48/100
Effetto is another Roger Varian newcomer, by Too Darn Hot out of a useful middle-distance winner and costing 100,000 guineas as a yearling. The yard’s 20% strike rate at Nottingham is again a positive, yet the jockey is operating below the yard average here and with no racecourse experience everything else remains unknown at this stage.
KTB verdict
Sedeirah is the KTB Selection. She showed promise when second over this trip last time, benefits from the yard’s strong 24% strike rate at Nottingham and the positive jockey booking, while the drop in class looks ideal for a filly with only two runs on the board. Thursday Girl brings the most experience and consistent placed form, and the two Varian newcomers cannot be dismissed given the trainer’s local record and their pedigrees. The race should revolve around whether the prominent runners can dictate matters or if the closers will get the chance to pounce on good to firm ground.
KTB Selection Sedeirah
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 00:00 UTC, 18 Jul. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Sedeirah | 11/1 | 7Bet |
| Thursday Girl | 13/8 | Bet365 |
| Moonlit Surf | 4/1 | Bet365 |
| Stellar | 2/1 | 7Bet |
| Effetto | 9/1 | Midnite |
This is the narrative read of the 8:08 Nottingham. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Nottingham racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the highest KTB Fit Score?
Sedeirah with a KTB Fit of 60/100.
How many previous runs has Thursday Girl had?
Thursday Girl has four previous runs, shown by her recent form figures of 5-222.
What is Owen Burrows’s strike rate at Nottingham?
Owen Burrows has a 28% strike rate at Nottingham with an A/E of 1.29 from 50 runs.
Which runners are unproven on good to firm ground?
Thursday Girl and Moonlit Surf are both unproven on good to firm.
What is the trainer and jockey combined record for the selection Sedeirah?
The trainer and jockey record for Sedeirah is 1/12 (8%) with an A/E of 0.58 and -£5.00 LSP.
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