6:45 Doncaster
A competitive Class 3 handicap over 7f at Doncaster on good to firm ground brings together nine runners, several of whom have shown ability at this track and trip in the past. The KTB Fit scores point to a tight contest at the top, headed by Yorkshire on 63, with Kodi Lion, Akkadian Thunder and Christian David all closely matched in the 52-58 range. Dropping in class looks a positive for a few, while first-time headgear is sported by the selection and one other; overall the numbers suggest a race that will be decided by which horse can rediscover its best form on the day.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is on the even side with no obvious front-runner dominating, though several hold-up performers mean the race is likely to be run at a genuine gallop. Yorkshire from draw 9 and Akkadian Thunder from stall 4 are expected to come from off the pace, while Christian David and First Time look set to race prominently from their low draws. The key question is whether the leaders can dictate matters or if the race will fall into the hands of the stronger travellers in the straight.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Yorkshire KTB Selection63/100Yorkshire is a useful performer who has run well at this track before and won four times at today's trip.
- 2Kodi Lion58/100Useful performer who has run creditably on this track when second here last year.
- 3Akkadian Thunder55/100Akkadian Thunder is a fair sort who has won twice at this track and three times at today's trip.
- 4Christian David52/100Fair performer who has dropped to a workable mark but has been below form all season and finished no better than fifth on his last four starts.
- 5Egoli47/100Egoli is a fair 3 year old who has shown ordinary form in recent starts with a string of mid division finishes.
- 6Perfect Part45/100Fair performer who has been consistent rather than progressive this year.
- 7First Time43/100Fair performer who has shown mixed form this year and arrives off the back of a modest sixth last time.
- 8Daydreama43/100Fair performer who has been below form in recent starts and was well held when eighth on her only previous visit to this track.
- 9Talis Evolvere38/100Talis Evolvere is a fair performer who has won over today's trip but has been largely out of form this year with a string of modest efforts.
The contenders
Yorkshire KTB Fit 63/100
Yorkshire is a useful performer who has run well at this track before and won four times at today's trip. He has shown little spark in two starts this year though and now tries headgear for the first time. The yard and jockey both have solid records at Doncaster, with the trainer operating at a 15 percent strike rate from 88 runs and the jockey at 12 percent from 258 rides here. A course second on his sole visit adds to his claims, while he has won once from four starts on good to firm. Dropping in class is another plus for a horse who brings the best KTB Fit score of 63.
Kodi Lion KTB Fit 58/100
Kodi Lion is a useful performer who has run creditably on this track when second here last year. He has placed on good to firm but is winless on the surface from three starts, while his record at this trip reads just one win from ten runs. Trainer holds a 9 percent strike rate at Doncaster from 396 runs and the jockey is 4 percent from 126 rides here. The KTB Fit rating of 58 places him firmly in the mix, and his placed effort over course and distance last season suggests he can be competitive again if he returns to that level.
Akkadian Thunder KTB Fit 55/100
Akkadian Thunder is a fair sort who has won twice at this track and three times at today's trip. He has been consistent enough without winning of late and has placed three times from seven runs on good to firm. The yard and jockey both have modest strike rates here, the trainer on 9 percent from 804 runs and the jockey on 8 percent from 303 rides. With a course record of two wins from nine starts he knows the venue well, and dropping in class could help him produce a bold show from draw 4.
Christian David KTB Fit 52/100
Christian David is a fair performer who has dropped to a workable mark but has been below form all season and finished no better than fifth on his last four starts. He has won over today's trip in the past and is back at it after a mile last time, though the first-time headgear is an unknown and his only run here was a poor one. Trainer and jockey both have solid rather than strong records at Doncaster, with the yard at 13 percent from 641 runs and the jockey at 9 percent from 190 rides. The KTB Fit of 52 reflects his current level, yet the trip and mark keep him in the conversation.
The rest of the field
EgoliKTB Fit 47/100
Egoli is a fair 3 year old who has shown ordinary form in recent starts with a string of mid division finishes. He steps up to 7f for the first time today which asks a fresh question while the yard holds a solid 15 percent strike rate at Doncaster from a big sample. The jockey is less established here with a 7 percent record from 27 rides and the horse has never been to this track before.
Perfect PartKTB Fit 45/100
Perfect Part is a fair performer who has been consistent rather than progressive this year. Two placed efforts on good to firm ground show he handles the surface but he is now 0-6 at this trip and drops back from a mile. First-time headgear is tried while the yard and jockey both have modest records at Doncaster.
First TimeKTB Fit 43/100
First Time is a fair performer who has shown mixed form this year and arrives off the back of a modest sixth last time. Has placed twice at this trip without winning and acts on good to firm ground having scored once from three starts on it. Trainer has a solid 9 percent strike rate at Doncaster while the jockey is operating at just 2 percent from a large sample here.
DaydreamaKTB Fit 43/100
Daydreama is a fair performer who has been below form in recent starts and was well held when eighth on her only previous visit to this track. She has shown some ability at this trip but is yet to win on good to firm ground and faces stiff opposition from the yard's modest record here. Jockey's low strike rate at the course adds to the negatives.
Talis EvolvereKTB Fit 38/100
Talis Evolvere is a fair performer who has won over today's trip but has been largely out of form this year with a string of modest efforts. He has twice run poorly at Doncaster and the 5 lb claimer is also winless from his five rides here. Placed once from nine starts on good to firm ground he should be competitive on that front though his overall record suggests he will find a few too good again.
KTB verdict
Yorkshire is the KTB Selection and brings the highest Fit score along with proven course form and a strong record at the trip. He has not shown much spark so far this season, but the first-time headgear, drop in class and the yard's respectable record at Doncaster give him every chance to bounce back. The main dangers are Kodi Lion, who has a good course second on his record, Akkadian Thunder with his two course wins, and Christian David who is on a workable mark despite recent modest efforts.
KTB Selection Yorkshire
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 00:00 UTC, 18 Jul. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Yorkshire | 11/4 | 7Bet |
| Kodi Lion | 8/1 | Bet365 |
| Akkadian Thunder | 4/1 | 7Bet |
| Christian David | 10/1 | Bet365 |
| Egoli | 9/1 | Bet365 |
| Perfect Part | 10/1 | 7Bet |
| First Time | 5/1 | 7Bet |
| Daydreama | 14/1 | 7Bet |
| Talis Evolvere | 13/2 | 7Bet |
This is the narrative read of the 6:45 Doncaster. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Doncaster racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is trying headgear for the first time?
Yorkshire and Christian David are both wearing first-time headgear.
How many course wins does Akkadian Thunder have at Doncaster?
Akkadian Thunder has won twice at this track from nine starts.
Which runners are dropping in class?
Yorkshire, Akkadian Thunder and Christian David are all dropping in class.
Who has the best trainer strike rate at Doncaster among the principals?
Edward Bethell has a 15 percent strike rate at Doncaster from 88 runs.
Has any horse in the field won over course and distance?
Yorkshire has won four times at today's trip and has placed over course and distance, while Akkadian Thunder has won twice at the track and three times at the trip.
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