7:15 Doncaster
A Class 6 handicap over 7f at Doncaster on good to firm ground brings together nine modest performers where the KTB Fit Scores are tightly bunched at the top. Thapa VC heads the numbers on 54, just ahead of Wilde And Dandy and Havana Mojito on 52, with the remainder trailing off to 32. The race lacks strong recent course form among several runners and the application of first-time headgear to two of the principals adds an unknown element to the puzzle.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is unclear with low confidence, as there is not enough run-style evidence across the field to read it with any certainty. Thapa VC and War And Love are both usually held up and produce their efforts late, but with limited data available it is difficult to predict how the race will unfold. The key question is whether the race will be run at a strong enough gallop to allow the hold-up performers to make their move, or whether the leaders can get away with it in a muddling affair.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Thapa VC KTB Selection54/100Modest performer who has won once from six starts at this track and holds a solid record on good to firm ground with two wins and six places from ten runs.
- 2Wilde And Dandy52/100Wilde And Dandy is a limited horse who has run 41 times and shown his best form at this track with two wins from six starts here.
- 3Havana Mojito52/100Limited performer who has been consistent at this level lately with four straight seconds but lacks real punch.
- 4Travis48/100Modest performer who has been in and out this year and showed his best when winning a similar race over this trip at Redcar last month.
- 5Renewable Dream45/100Modest performer who has shown some ability on this track when third here on his only visit.
- 6War And Love45/100Modest performer who has shown consistent placed form without winning.
- 7Maxi Boy42/100Modest performer who has been below form for some time with recent efforts reading 88404.
- 8Big Apple Jack35/100Limited performer who has shown bits of ability on this track, finishing third here on his penultimate start.
- 9Sir David32/100Limited horse who has been out of form for most of this year and showed little at this track on his only previous visit.
The contenders
Thapa VC KTB Fit 54/100
Thapa VC is a modest performer who has won once from six starts at this track and holds a solid record on good to firm ground with two wins and six places from ten runs. He drops back to 7f today having last run over a mile and is proven at the trip with four wins from 38 starts though his recent form of 534325 suggests he is vulnerable to sharper types. First-time headgear is now applied. The trainer has a 6% strike rate at Doncaster from 35 runs with an A/E of 0.58 while the jockey records a 12% strike rate from 258 rides with an A/E of 0.99. He is held up, usually producing his effort late though with limited evidence.
Wilde And Dandy KTB Fit 52/100
Wilde And Dandy is a limited horse who has run 41 times and shown his best form at this track with two wins from six starts here. He has won twice on good to firm ground and five times at this trip overall though his recent form of 836-93 suggests he is not quite at his peak. The trainer has a 7% strike rate at Doncaster from 190 runs with an A/E of 0.96 while the jockey records an 11% strike rate from 151 rides with an A/E of 1.00. He has won here twice from six starts and the figures suggest he can be competitive at this level.
Havana Mojito KTB Fit 52/100
Havana Mojito is a limited performer who has been consistent at this level lately with four straight seconds but lacks real punch. He has won over today's trip and handles good to firm ground with two wins from 12 starts and seven places, though his sole run here was poor when he finished 11th. First-time headgear is now applied. The booking of Conor Whiteley is a positive given the jockey's 50% strike rate at Doncaster from six rides with an A/E of 3.45 while the trainer has a 6% strike rate from 67 runs with an A/E of 0.98.
Travis KTB Fit 48/100
Travis is a modest performer who has been in and out this year and showed his best when winning a similar race over this trip at Redcar last month. He has run twice here without placing, finishing fourth and seventh. The yard has a 6% strike rate at Doncaster from 101 runs with an A/E of 0.61 and the jockey records a 4% strike rate from 52 rides with an A/E of 0.50. He has been placed four times from ten starts on good to firm but remains winless on the surface.
The rest of the field
Renewable DreamKTB Fit 45/100
Renewable Dream is a modest performer who has shown some ability on this track when third here on his only visit. He has been below that level on his last two starts though and the trainer has a 3% strike rate at Doncaster from 232 runs with an A/E of 0.75. Trip and ground look suitable enough on what he has shown so far.
War And LoveKTB Fit 45/100
War And Love is a modest performer who has shown consistent placed form without winning. He drops back from a mile to an untried 7f which asks a fresh question of him. The trainer has a 7% strike rate at Doncaster from 459 runs with an A/E of 0.68 while the jockey records a 6% strike rate from 108 rides with an A/E of 0.83. He is held up, usually producing his effort late though with limited evidence and remains unproven on good to firm.
Maxi BoyKTB Fit 42/100
Maxi Boy is a modest performer who has been below form for some time with recent efforts reading 88404. He has shown a bit of ability at this track but has failed to win or place in two runs here and the yard is 0 from 6 at Doncaster with an A/E of 0. The jockey records a 2% strike rate from 62 rides at the course with an A/E of 0.14. He steps up to 7f for the first time in a while having won at the trip earlier in his career.
Big Apple JackKTB Fit 35/100
Big Apple Jack is a limited performer who has shown bits of ability on this track, finishing third here on his penultimate start. He steps up to 7f for the first time today having looked stretched at 6f last time, which asks a fresh question of him. The yard has a 5% strike rate at Doncaster from 124 runs with an A/E of 0.48 and the 7lb claimer is 0 from 15 here with an A/E of 0.
Sir DavidKTB Fit 32/100
Sir David is a limited horse who has been out of form for most of this year and showed little at this track on his only previous visit when 13th. He has won over today's trip but is 0-6 on good to firm and the yard has a 6% strike rate at Doncaster from 756 runs with an A/E of 0.69 while the jockey records a 2% strike rate from 124 rides with an A/E of 0.30. Recent form offers a glimmer when he was second at a lesser track last month yet that still leaves him with plenty to find.
KTB verdict
Thapa VC is the KTB Selection. He brings a course win, a strong record on good to firm and proven ability at 7f, with the first-time headgear offering a possible boost as he drops back from a mile. His recent form is steady if not spectacular and the combination of track knowledge and surface suitability gives him a clear chance in a race where the principals are closely matched on the numbers. The main dangers are Wilde And Dandy, who has shown his best form at this track, and Havana Mojito, whose recent consistency and the positive jockey booking make him a threat if the headgear helps him find extra.
KTB Selection Thapa VC
Morning odds
Best available price per runner, captured 00:00 UTC, 18 Jul. These are a morning snapshot and will have moved — see the live racecard for current prices.
| Runner | Morning price | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|
| Thapa VC | 7/2 | Bet365 |
| Wilde And Dandy | 11/2 | Bet365 |
| Havana Mojito | 10/3 | 7Bet |
| Travis | 9/2 | 7Bet |
| Renewable Dream | 14/1 | 7Bet |
| War And Love | 18/1 | Virgin Bet |
| Maxi Boy | 7/1 | Virgin Bet |
| Big Apple Jack | 6/1 | Coral |
This is the narrative read of the 7:15 Doncaster. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Doncaster racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the strongest course record among the principals?
Wilde And Dandy has two wins from six starts at Doncaster.
How many wins has Thapa VC recorded on good to firm ground?
Thapa VC has two wins from ten starts on good to firm.
What is the jockey's strike rate at Doncaster for Havana Mojito?
Conor Whiteley has a 50% strike rate at Doncaster from six rides.
Has War And Love ever run on good to firm ground?
War And Love has no runs on good to firm and is unproven on the ground.
Which horse is dropping in class?
War And Love is dropping in class.
18+. Analysis and entertainment only — no guarantee of profit. KTB race previews are published for interest and are not betting advice. Only ever stake what you can comfortably afford to lose, and set your own limits. Free, confidential help: the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133 (GamCare.org.uk); in Ireland, the GamblingCare.ie helpline on 1800 936 725. Self-exclude at any time via GAMSTOP.
More from Kickthebookies