5:50 Nottingham
This Class 5 handicap over the minimum trip at Nottingham brings together a small but competitive field of five modest performers on good to firm ground. The KTB Fit scores are tightly bunched at the top, with Coyy just heading the ratings on 55, followed closely by Squealer on 53 and Mondammej on 52, while the two three-year-olds sit on 44. With no course form on record for any runner, the race will hinge on how the first-time headgear works for several of them and whether the drop or step in class proves beneficial.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape suggests a strongly-run race with multiple runners likely to press forward early. Squealer from stall one and Velvet Goldmine from stall two are both inclined to race prominently, while Coyy and Mondammej should also be on the speed from their middle draws. Come On Over is the one who may settle a little further back. The key question is whether the early pace collapses or if one of the forward-goers can dictate matters and hold on up the straight.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Coyy KTB Selection55/100Modest performer who has won once over this trip on good to firm and has placed on the surface twice from three starts.
- 2Squealer53/100Modest performer who has been out of the frame in all five starts this year and looks vulnerable from stall one.
- 3Mondammej52/100Modest performer with a long record who has been out of form this year.
- 4Come On Over44/100Modest performer who has shown some spark lately with a win and a second in his last three starts.
- 5Velvet Goldmine44/100Modest performer who has shown some promise on both starts since an initial poor debut.
The contenders
Coyy KTB Fit 55/100
Coyy is a modest performer who has won once over this trip on good to firm and has placed on the surface twice from three starts. The three-year-old arrives here off the back of a string of ordinary efforts that leave him with plenty to find on recent ratings, but first-time headgear is now applied in the hope of sparking improvement. The trainer maintains a 12% strike rate at Nottingham from 132 runs, while the jockey also rides the track at a 12% rate. With a draw of five in this small field he should be able to secure a decent early position given his run-style. The combination of the surface, the headgear and the yard's local record makes him the KTB selection.
Squealer KTB Fit 53/100
Squealer is a modest performer who has been out of the frame in all five starts this year and looks vulnerable from stall one. He has won at this trip but is 0-14 on good to firm and the yard's modest 8 percent strike rate at Nottingham adds little confidence. Dropping in class is a positive but the six-year-old has shown precious little spark of late. First run here so the track is an unknown. The prominent run-style could see him contest the lead early but he will need to find something new to trouble the principals on these terms.
Mondammej KTB Fit 52/100
Mondammej is a modest performer with a long record who has been out of form this year. He has won at today's trip but is 0-8 on good to firm and the yard's modest 2% strike rate at Nottingham offers little encouragement. Dropping in class may help the nine-year-old yet recent form figures of 024-06 do not inspire much confidence. First run here so the track is an unknown. From draw four he should be involved in the early scrap for the lead but he needs a revival to play a serious part.
The rest of the field
Come On OverKTB Fit 44/100
Come On Over is a modest performer who has shown some spark lately with a win and a second in his last three starts. Stepping up in class having failed to win in four previous tries at the trip, the first-time headgear is another unknown for the three-year-old. The trainer has a 10% strike rate at Nottingham from 165 runs and the jockey rides the track at a 15% rate.
Velvet GoldmineKTB Fit 44/100
Velvet Goldmine is a modest performer who has shown some promise on both starts since an initial poor debut. Placed over this trip on the second run and now tried in first-time headgear from a low draw, the three-year-old remains lightly raced with plenty still to prove. The trainer has a solid 17% strike rate here from a big sample but this one has only one run on good to firm to date.
KTB verdict
Coyy is the KTB selection in what looks a trappy little heat. The three-year-old has already shown he can handle good to firm ground over this distance and the first-time headgear offers a plausible reason for improvement after some lacklustre recent runs. The yard's respectable record at Nottingham adds further substance to his claims. Main dangers are likely to come from Come On Over, who has shown spark of late, and the more experienced Squealer if he can rediscover some form from the front. Mondammej and Velvet Goldmine are harder to fancy on current evidence but cannot be entirely ruled out in such a small field.
KTB Selection Coyy
This is the narrative read of the 5:50 Nottingham. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Nottingham racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is making its first appearance in headgear?
Coyy, Come On Over and Velvet Goldmine are all wearing first-time headgear.
How many of these runners have previous course form at Nottingham?
None of the five runners have any course form on record.
Which runners are dropping in class for this race?
Squealer and Mondammej are both dropping in class.
Who has the strongest trainer strike rate at Nottingham according to the supplied data?
Ed Walker has a 17% strike rate at Nottingham from 151 runs.
Which horse has the best recent form figures among the principals?
Coyy has the best recent form figures among the principals with -01374.
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