7:20 Leicester
A small but competitive Class 5 fillies’ handicap over 1m4f at Leicester on good to firm ground brings together four three-year-olds, three of whom are rated as modest performers by the KTB numbers. The KTB Fit Scores are tightly bunched between 57 and 42, reflecting a race where steady rather than spectacular form is the norm and where the step up in trip for some adds an extra layer of uncertainty. With limited course form on record and mixed going experiences, the contest looks open on paper despite the modest overall standard.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is unclear with low confidence, as there is not enough run-style evidence across the small field to form a firm view. Liveinthelight is the only one with a defined held-up profile, suggesting he will produce his effort late, while the others lack clear indications of how they will be ridden. This leaves the race without an obvious leader or confirmed front-runner, so the key question is whether the tempo will be sufficient to suit those wanting a test of stamina or whether a more even gallop will play into the hands of those with a turn of foot from mid-division.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Musical Accord KTB Selection57/100Musical Accord has shown only modest form in three starts to date and is up against it from a low draw in a race that could suit his stamina.
- 2Semper Femina49/100Modest performer who has shown some consistency but remains winless after five starts.
- 3Liveinthelight49/100Modest performer who has shown steady improvement this year and arrives in form after two wins in the last three starts.
- 4Caraway42/100Modest performer who showed his best form when winning a handicap at this trip in June before a creditable third at Newmarket last time.
The contenders
Musical Accord KTB Fit 57/100
Musical Accord has shown only modest form in three starts to date and is up against it from a low draw in a race that could suit his stamina. The step up to nearly 1m4f asks a fresh question of him as a lightly-raced 3-year-old. Ralph Beckett has an 18% strike-rate at Leicester from 294 runs while Rossa Ryan is aboard. The trainer and jockey combination carries a combined record of 219/1047 with an A/E of 0.96. Dropping in class is a positive on paper for this lightly-raced sort, although his lack of experience on good to firm ground and absence of course form remain unknowns. Recent form figures read 766.
Semper Femina KTB Fit 49/100
Semper Femina is a modest performer who has shown some consistency but remains winless after five starts. She has twice tackled this trip without success and the latest efforts suggest she is vulnerable to anything better than average at this level. Richard Hannon has a solid 13% strike rate here from a big sample of 364 runs while Sean Levey takes the ride for the first time. The trainer and jockey partnership shows 457/3476 with an A/E of 0.89. Her record on good to firm is limited to one unplaced effort and she has no previous course experience. Recent form figures read 29727.
Liveinthelight KTB Fit 49/100
Liveinthelight is a modest performer who has shown steady improvement this year and arrives in form after two wins in the last three starts. He has won at today's trip from his only attempt and is well drawn in stall three. Ollie Sangster has a 0% strike rate from 11 runs at Leicester, though David Egan brings a 12% strike rate at the track. The trainer and jockey record stands at 1/24 with an A/E of 0.41. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he has placed once from one run on good to firm. Recent form figures read -59121.
The rest of the field
CarawayKTB Fit 42/100
Caraway is a modest performer who showed his best form when winning a handicap at this trip in June before a creditable third at Newmarket last time. Stepping up in class having come back from 1m6f looks a positive and William Haggas has an 18% strike rate at Leicester from 218 runs. Recent form figures read -64613.
KTB verdict
Musical Accord is the KTB Selection in a race where the numbers suggest little separates the quartet on pure ability. The selection can benefit from the drop in class and the step up in trip that should play to his stamina, with the Beckett yard’s respectable record at Leicester providing further encouragement. Liveinthelight represents the chief danger having shown the most recent progress and a win at the trip, while both Semper Femina and Caraway bring solid recent efforts and yard support that cannot be dismissed in such a small field.
KTB Selection Musical Accord
This is the narrative read of the 7:20 Leicester. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Leicester racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has won at the trip before?
Liveinthelight has won at today's trip from his only attempt, while Caraway won a handicap at this trip in June.
How many wins has Liveinthelight recorded in his last three starts?
Liveinthelight has recorded two wins in his last three starts.
What is Ralph Beckett’s strike rate at Leicester?
Ralph Beckett has an 18% strike rate at Leicester from 294 runs.
Which runner is stepping up in class?
Caraway is stepping up in class.
What is the run-style of Liveinthelight?
Liveinthelight is usually held up and produces his effort late.
18+. Analysis and entertainment only — no guarantee of profit. KTB race previews are published for interest and are not betting advice. Only ever stake what you can comfortably afford to lose, and set your own limits. Free, confidential help: the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133 (GamCare.org.uk); in Ireland, the GamblingCare.ie helpline on 1800 936 725. Self-exclude at any time via GAMSTOP.
More from Kickthebookies