2:40 Doncaster
This Class 3 EBF novice at Doncaster over 1m2f43y on good to firm ground brings together a small but interesting field of lightly raced types stepping up in class. With only four runners and the pace shape rated unclear due to limited run-style evidence, the KTB Fit Scores point to a competitive but open-looking affair where recent winners and those with promise hold the edge. Round The Table tops the KTB rankings on the back of two victories, while Interstate and Dancingondiamonds follow, though all contenders carry questions over the surface and trip.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is unclear with low confidence, as there is simply not enough evidence from the run-styles across the field to form a firm view. Round The Table and Interstate have shown versatility while Dancingondiamonds is usually held up and produces its effort late, albeit on limited evidence. The key question is whether the race develops into a true test or becomes a tactical affair on ground that remains unproven for most of the runners.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Round The Table KTB Selection56/100Has won his last two starts including at this trip on debut.
- 2Interstate52/100Interstate showed clear promise when second on debut over a mile last season before running no sort of race on his return.
- 3Dancingondiamonds47/100Dancingondiamonds has shown little so far with two fifth-place finishes from four starts and remains lightly raced.
- 4Twin And Tonic45/100Twin And Tonic has shown little in two starts so far, finishing ninth on debut and then again last time out.
The contenders
Round The Table KTB Fit 56/100
Round The Table arrives with strong momentum, having won his last two starts including a success at this trip on debut. Lightly raced with just two runs on the board, the bare form is difficult to weigh up accurately yet the progression is clear. Tom Clover holds a 17% strike rate at Doncaster with an A/E of 1.1 from 48 runs, while David Egan brings a 16% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 1.15 from 188 rides. The pair's solid course records add to the appeal as the colt steps up in class. He has no experience of good to firm ground and no prior course form, yet the KTB Fit Score of 56 and market support of 8/15 in a field of four underline his position as the one to beat.
Interstate KTB Fit 52/100
Interstate showed clear promise when second on debut over a mile last season but then ran no sort of race on his return. He now steps up in trip for the first time with first-time headgear fitted as he tackles this longer distance. The John and Thady Gosden yard posts a 23% strike rate at Doncaster with an A/E of 1.04 from 161 runs, and William Buick is even stronger with a 21% strike rate and A/E of 1.09 from 513 rides at the track. Both trainer and jockey therefore hold strong records here, yet the very limited evidence means this remains a watching brief. The colt is unproven on good to firm and has no course form, stepping up in class with a KTB Fit of 52.
Dancingondiamonds KTB Fit 47/100
Dancingondiamonds has shown little so far with two fifth-place finishes from four starts and remains lightly raced. The drop back from 2m to this untried 1m2f poses a fresh question while the good-to-firm ground is also unknown given the small sample. Olly Murphy holds a 13% strike rate at Doncaster from 39 runs with an A/E of 0.75, but Hugh Horgan has no recorded rides at the track and therefore carries a neutral score. Usually held up and producing its effort late on limited evidence, the four-year-old steps up in class with a KTB Fit of 47. The combination of trip, ground and lack of course form leaves plenty to prove.
The rest of the field
Twin And TonicKTB Fit 45/100
Twin And Tonic has shown little in two starts so far, finishing ninth on debut and then again last time out. The yard has a solid 13 percent strike rate at Doncaster from a decent-sized sample with an A/E of 1.07 from 168 runs, yet the jockey is much weaker with a 2% strike rate and A/E of 0.14 from 63 rides at the track. Both trip and ground remain unproven given the small sample, and the colt steps up in class with a KTB Fit of 45.
KTB verdict
Round The Table stands out as the KTB Selection. Having won his last two starts including at this trip on debut, the lightly raced colt brings the best recent form into a race where bare figures are hard to weigh up accurately. Tom Clover and David Egan both hold solid records at Doncaster which further strengthens the case. Interstate is the obvious danger given the promise shown on debut and the powerful yard and jockey combination, though the return to action was poor and first-time headgear is now required. Dancingondiamonds and Twin And Tonic look up against it on what they have shown so far.
KTB Selection Round The Table
This is the narrative read of the 2:40 Doncaster. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Doncaster racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has won its last two starts including at this trip?
Round The Table
Which runner is fitted with first-time headgear and steps up in trip?
Interstate
Which horse is usually held up and dropping back from 2m to 1m2f?
Dancingondiamonds
What is the trainer strike rate at Doncaster for the yard of the KTB Selection?
17% strike rate at Doncaster · A/E 1.1 (48 runs)
How many of the four runners are unproven on good to firm ground?
Three
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About the A/E figures in this preview. They are the data supplier’s: the winners a trainer or jockey had, divided by the winners the starting prices implied, over the runs in that record. Above 1.0 means more wins than the prices suggested. It is not KTB’s fair A/E, which allows for the bookmakers’ margin and the favourite–longshot bias, and the two are not comparable.
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