1:45 Ascot
The 1:45 at Ascot is the Princess Margaret Japan Cup Stakes, a Group 3 for two-year-olds over six furlongs on good to firm ground. An eleven-runner field lines up with the KTB Fit ratings tightly bunched at the top, led by Dark Issue on 59, just ahead of Harlequin Sky on 58 and Moonrise on 57. The race features several useful juveniles stepping up in class, with recent course form and trip suitability key factors according to the KTB numbers.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape suggests a steadily-run affair with several prominent runners likely to contest the early lead. Dark Issue from draw 3 and Moonrise from draw 2 are both capable of racing prominently, while Harlequin Sky tends to settle in mid-division. The key question is whether the race will develop into a sprint finish up the straight or if the prominent types can dictate matters from the front.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Dark Issue KTB Selection59/100Useful performer who has already shown his ability at this trip with a win from two starts.
- 2Harlequin Sky58/100Useful sort who has shown consistent form in three runs this year, finishing no worse than third.
- 3Moonrise57/100Useful performer who showed promise on debut before finishing second at this track last time.
- 4Velozee54/100Useful performer who has shown plenty of speed over 5f, winning twice before a creditable effort when eighth here over the same distance last time.
- 5Dee's Funny Girl52/100Dee's Funny Girl showed useful early speed to win on debut but could only finish sixth when stepped up to this level at the same track last time.
- 6Miss Kodi52/100Miss Kodi won her only start over this trip.
- 7Alta Regina52/100Useful performer who showed promise when winning on debut over 5f before finishing sixth here over the same trip.
- 8Nuit d'Eclair51/100Nuit d'Eclair won on debut over this trip on good to firm ground.
- 9Glorious Game50/100Glorious Game has won both starts at this trip on good to firm ground and arrives off the back of two quick victories.
- 10The Can Can Queen50/100Fair performer who has won once and placed twice from four starts, including a success at this trip.
- 11Magnesium36/100Magnesium is a modest performer who has shown mixed form in three runs, winning once at today's trip but finishing well beaten on both visits to Ascot.
The contenders
Dark Issue KTB Fit 59/100
Dark Issue is a useful performer who has already shown his ability at this trip with a win from two starts. He ran respectably when fourth over course and distance last time but will need to improve again to land this higher grade. The Richard Hannon yard has a modest 7% strike rate at Ascot from a large sample of 764 runs and Pat Dobbs matches that 7% figure from 381 rides at the track. He has been placed once from one run on good to firm and showed placed form on his sole visit to Ascot. From a low draw he is likely to race prominently in a race where that run style could be an advantage.
Harlequin Sky KTB Fit 58/100
Harlequin Sky is a useful sort who has shown consistent form in three runs this year, finishing no worse than third. He has been placed on his only visit to Ascot and has also performed at today's trip, though he remains lightly raced overall. The Jane Chapple-Hyam yard has a modest 7% strike rate at Ascot from 135 runs while Christophe Soumillon matches that figure from 133 rides here. He has been placed once from one run on good to firm. His consistent profile makes him a solid contender though he will need to find a fraction more in this higher grade.
Moonrise KTB Fit 57/100
Moonrise is a useful performer who showed promise on debut before finishing second at this track last time. He has already won over today's trip and is drawn low in what looks a suitable race. Andrew Balding and Oisin Murphy both have solid records here, the trainer at 9% from 973 runs and the jockey at 11% from 546 rides, though neither is on fire at present. He has been placed once from one run on good to firm and showed placed form on his sole visit to Ascot. Racing from a low draw he is expected to be to the fore early.
Velozee KTB Fit 54/100
Velozee is a useful performer who has shown plenty of speed over 5f, winning twice before a creditable effort when eighth here over the same distance last time. He steps up to 6f for the first time today which asks a fresh question, while the yard's modest 5% strike rate from 19 runs at Ascot is another negative. P Twomey and W J Lee have a 28% combined strike rate overall with a positive A/E of 1.03, yet the trainer's record at this venue is modest. He has no win or place from one run on good to firm and his sole course run produced an eighth-place finish. The trip increase remains the main query.
Dee's Funny Girl KTB Fit 52/100
Dee's Funny Girl showed useful early speed to win on debut but could only finish sixth when stepped up to this level at the same track last time. She remains a fair prospect on balance but has a bit to find to reverse that form now. The Donnacha Aidan O'Brien yard has a solid 10% strike rate at Ascot from 21 runs and Ryan Moore has a 14% record from 1246 rides at the track. She has no win or place from one run on good to firm and finished sixth on her only visit to Ascot. The trip looks on the sharp side for her according to the KTB assessment.
The rest of the field
Miss KodiKTB Fit 52/100
Miss Kodi won her only start over this trip. The small sample means her ability remains largely unknown and the going is untested. Clive Cox has a solid 10% strike-rate at Ascot from a big sample while Harry Davies is operating at 8%. She steps up in class having shown nothing on record at this level.
Alta ReginaKTB Fit 52/100
Alta Regina is a useful performer who showed promise when winning on debut over 5f before finishing sixth here over the same trip. He steps up to 6f for the first time today which asks a fresh question. The trainer's modest 3% strike rate at Ascot from 30 runs is a negative while jockey Jamie Spencer has a solid 10% record from 923 rides at the track. He has won once from two runs on good to firm.
Nuit d'EclairKTB Fit 51/100
Nuit d'Eclair won on debut over this trip on good to firm ground. The Kevin Philippart De Foy yard holds a solid 9% strike rate from 56 runs at Ascot while David Egan is operating at a 4% strike rate from 287 rides here. With only one run on the board the form has to be treated cautiously as he steps up in class.
Glorious GameKTB Fit 50/100
Glorious Game has won both starts at this trip on good to firm ground and arrives off the back of two quick victories. The fair colt now steps into Listed company for the first time while wearing first-time headgear. Trainer Hugo Palmer has an 8% strike rate from 208 runs at Ascot while Colin Keane also rides here.
The Can Can QueenKTB Fit 50/100
The Can Can Queen is a fair performer who has won once and placed twice from four starts, including a success at this trip. She has already shown up well at Ascot and the booking of William Buick is a positive given his solid 14 percent strike rate here from a large sample. Trainer Charlie Johnston's modest 3 percent record at the track is a clear negative.
MagnesiumKTB Fit 36/100
Magnesium is a modest performer who has shown mixed form in three runs, winning once at today's trip but finishing well beaten on both visits to Ascot. The yard's record here is poor at 3% from 36 runs. With only three career starts the colt remains lightly raced and not fully exposed.
KTB verdict
Dark Issue is the KTB Selection. He has already shown his ability at this trip with a win from two starts and ran respectably when fourth over course and distance last time, though he will need to improve again to land this higher grade. The combination of a low draw and prominent run style could prove ideal in a race that may not be strongly run. His main dangers are Harlequin Sky, who has been no worse than third in three starts and has course form, and Moonrise, who showed promise on debut before finishing second at this track and has already won over the trip.
KTB Selection Dark Issue
This is the narrative read of the 1:45 Ascot. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Ascot racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the highest KTB Fit Score in the race?
Dark Issue with 59/100.
How many runners have previous placed form at Ascot?
Five runners have previous placed form at Ascot: Dark Issue, Harlequin Sky, Moonrise, Dee's Funny Girl and Alta Regina.
Which trainer has the best strike rate at Ascot among those with at least 20 runs?
Donnacha Aidan O'Brien has a 10% strike rate at Ascot from 21 runs.
Who has the strongest combined trainer-jockey record shown on the card?
Donnacha Aidan O'Brien and Ryan Moore with 5/14 (36%) and an A/E of 1.24.
Which horses are stepping up in trip to 6f for the first time?
Velozee and Alta Regina are both stepping up to 6f for the first time.
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