2:45 Ayr
This Class 6 handicap over six furlongs at Ayr on good to firm ground brings together a field of nine modest performers where the KTB Fit Scores are tightly bunched at the top. Kelpie Grey heads the ratings on 59 with a quartet on 55, while the remainder taper away to 39. The race features a notable pace advantage for anything able to secure an uncontested lead, and several runners are dropping in class while carrying the hopes of yards with established records at the track.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape points to a lone leader scenario with low confidence, suggesting one horse will secure an uncontested lead that could prove difficult for those coming from off the pace to reel in. Tap Dancer is the clear front-running type in the field and looks most likely to take up that role from stall four, while the likes of Kelpie Grey, Water Of Leith and Mr Cool tend to race more prominently. The key question is whether the leader can dictate terms throughout or if the closers, particularly those drawn low, can bridge the gap on this quick surface.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Kelpie Grey KTB Selection59/100Modest performer who has won twice at Ayr from 16 runs and remains competitive on good to firm ground having placed twice from five starts.
- 2Water Of Leith55/100Modest performer with a solid record at this track and trip, including a win over course and distance.
- 3Mr Cool55/100Modest performer who has been placed on his last two starts and has won twice at this trip from 22 attempts.
- 4Great Profit55/100Modest performer who has shown some consistency of late with three placed efforts from his last four starts including a second here over 5f.
- 5Cotai Starlight52/100Limited performer who showed improved form when winning a similar race here last time.
- 6Falcon Queen49/100Modest performer who has shown little spark in six runs to date and arrives here on the back of a poor 9th at this track last time.
- 7Joshuas Dream47/100Limited performer who has shown very little in seven runs and was well beaten on both starts here.
- 8Tap Dancer47/100Limited performer who has shown bits of ability around here without winning in five runs at Ayr.
- 9Lanarra39/100Limited horse who has shown ordinary form at best and has failed to place in three runs at Ayr.
The contenders
Kelpie Grey KTB Fit 59/100
Kelpie Grey is a modest performer who has won twice at Ayr from 16 runs and remains competitive on good to firm ground having placed twice from five starts. His recent form of 65860 shows little spark and the yard's 10 percent strike rate at the track from a huge sample is nothing to shout about. Amie Waugh's 6 percent record from 171 rides here adds no extra upside. Dropping in class from stall six, he has course-winning form to call upon and should be involved if the race falls his way. The selection carries the hopes of the Jim Goldie yard that knows the venue inside out.
Water Of Leith KTB Fit 55/100
Water Of Leith is a modest performer with a solid record at this track and trip, including a win over course and distance. He has been consistent enough of late without looking like winning, finishing in the frame on three of his last six starts. Trainer Jim Goldie knows the place inside out while the jockey is less established here with a 5 percent strike rate from 73 rides at Ayr. His record on good to firm reads one win from three starts with two placings, and he holds an official rating that keeps him competitive in this grade. From draw seven he should be on the pace and is respected.
Mr Cool KTB Fit 55/100
Mr Cool is a modest performer who has been placed on his last two starts and has won twice at this trip from 22 attempts. He has shown some ability at Ayr without winning, finishing placed once from three runs here, and he acts on good to firm ground having been placed twice from seven starts. The yard has a solid 16 percent strike rate at the track from 116 runs while the jockey is operating at 10 percent from 535 rides. Dropping in class from stall eight, his recent form of 673523 suggests he is in reasonable heart and he should be thereabouts once again.
Great Profit KTB Fit 55/100
Great Profit is a modest performer who has shown some consistency of late with three placed efforts from his last four starts including a second here over 5f. He steps up to 6f for the first time today which asks a fresh question of him while the yard has no previous runners at Ayr. Jockey Barry McHugh holds an 8 percent strike rate from 183 rides at the track. From a low draw of two he is likely to settle in midfield and his placed effort on good to firm ground offers some encouragement. The three-year-old brings some progressive form into the race.
The rest of the field
Cotai StarlightKTB Fit 52/100
Cotai Starlight is a limited performer who showed improved form when winning a similar race here last time. Drawn in stall one which should help on this track and the good-to-firm ground is a positive given her record of one win from one start. Trainer and jockey both have solid records at Ayr.
Falcon QueenKTB Fit 49/100
Falcon Queen is a modest performer who has shown little spark in six runs to date and arrives here on the back of a poor 9th at this track last time. She steps up from 5f to 6f for the first time in a while having failed to trouble the judge in three previous attempts at the trip. First-time headgear is now applied.
Joshuas DreamKTB Fit 47/100
Joshuas Dream is a limited performer who has shown very little in seven runs and was well beaten on both starts here. The yard has a solid record at Ayr but this one looks up against it from stall 9. Trip and ground both remain unproven.
Tap DancerKTB Fit 47/100
Tap Dancer is a limited performer who has shown bits of ability around here without winning in five runs at Ayr. He drops back to an untried 6f today having been competitive on good to firm ground in the past. Trainer and jockey both have solid established records at the track and his front-running style could be an asset in this pace setup.
LanarraKTB Fit 39/100
Lanarra is a limited horse who has shown ordinary form at best and has failed to place in three runs at Ayr. She drops back to 6f having won at the trip earlier in her career, though her most recent efforts came over 7f. Trainer and jockey both sit on 8 percent strike rates at the track from large samples.
KTB verdict
Kelpie Grey is the KTB Selection in a race where the top four are rated very closely together. He has won twice at Ayr and remains competitive on this surface despite a lack of recent spark, with the drop in class offering some hope. His course record and the yard's familiarity with the venue are plus points even if the trainer and jockey statistics at Ayr are modest. The main dangers are Water Of Leith with his strong track record, the in-form Mr Cool who is dropping in class, and Great Profit who brings recent placed form and a low draw. Cotai Starlight's recent course win also makes her a live player from stall one.
KTB Selection Kelpie Grey
This is the narrative read of the 2:45 Ayr. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Ayr racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is most likely to take the uncontested lead?
Tap Dancer is the clear front-running type and tends to make the running or race on the pace.
How many course winners are in the field?
There are four course winners: Kelpie Grey (2 from 16), Water Of Leith (1 from 6), Cotai Starlight (1 from 1) and Lanarra has won at the trip but not at the course.
Which runners are dropping in class?
Kelpie Grey, Mr Cool and Falcon Queen are all dropping in class.
Who has the strongest trainer record at Ayr in this race?
Charlie Johnston has a 16 percent strike rate at Ayr from 116 runs, ahead of Jim Goldie's 10 percent from a much larger sample.
Which horse is having its first run in headgear?
Falcon Queen is fitted with first-time headgear.
18+. Analysis and entertainment only — no guarantee of profit. KTB race previews are published for interest and are not betting advice. Only ever stake what you can comfortably afford to lose, and set your own limits. Free, confidential help: the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133 (GamCare.org.uk); in Ireland, the GamblingCare.ie helpline on 1800 936 725. Self-exclude at any time via GAMSTOP.
More from Kickthebookies