5:35 Galway
The Ardilaun Hotel Handicap at Galway brings together an 18-runner field over 7f on good ground. It is a competitive handicap where the KTB Fit ratings identify a clear top five, headed by the selection Storm Averted on 69. The numbers suggest several runners with course form and placed efforts on good ground, but also a number with limited or no experience of the venue and surface.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape points to a lone leader with high confidence, suggesting one horse will secure an uncontested lead that could prove difficult for those coming from off the pace to reel in. Rhythm King is the most prominent among the principals, while Minaun View and Buttermere Ridge also have front-running tendencies and may contest early. The key question is whether any of the prominent runners can apply pressure to the clear leader or whether the uncontested advantage will be decisive in the straight.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Storm Averted KTB Selection69/100
- 2San Aer63/100Usually held up and produces its effort late.
- 3Rhythm King59/100Usually races handily, on or close to the lead.
- 4The Sweet Escape56/100Typically settles in midfield.
- 5Navagio54/100
- 6Lough Leane54/100Usually held up and produces its effort late.
- 7Marta's Prince53/100Usually held up and produces its effort late.
- 8Spent All Me Money52/100Usually held up and produces its effort late.
- 9Apache Outlaw50/100Usually held up and produces its effort late.
- 10Bay Of Dreams48/100Typically settles in midfield.
- 11Faoladh47/100Usually held up and produces its effort late.
- 12Chester Nimitz46/100Usually held up and produces its effort late.
- 13La La Lucrative45/100Usually held up and produces its effort late.
- 14Gloriously Glam42/100Usually held up and produces its effort late.
- 15Mytimetoshine42/100
- 16Minaun View41/100Tends to make the running or race on the pace.
- 17Mickey The Steel36/100Usually held up and produces its effort late.
- 18Buttermere Ridge32/100Tends to make the running or race on the pace.
The contenders
Storm Averted KTB Fit 69/100
Storm Averted arrives with a KTB Fit score of 69 and is the selection. A 5-year-old with a win at this track from three runs, he has been placed once from two starts on good ground and remains competitive at this level. Maurice Andrew Ahern has a remarkable 67% strike rate at Galway with an A/E of 9.67 from three runs, while the trainer and jockey combination shows 2 wins from 17 rides with an A/E of 1.30 and positive LSP of +£12.00. First-time headgear is now applied. Drawn in stall 10, his recent form of 1874-9 suggests he can be competitive if the headgear helps him to bounce back.
San Aer KTB Fit 63/100
San Aer is next best on KTB Fit of 63. An 8-year-old with two wins from ten starts at Galway, he has a solid record on good ground with one win and three places from nine runs. Usually held up and producing his effort late, though with limited evidence and low confidence in that assessment, he now tries first-time headgear. Ross O'Sullivan and W J Lee have a 14% strike rate together with an A/E of 1.14, while both trainer and jockey have respectable records at the track. His recent form of 900052 indicates he retains ability and is capable of figuring prominently.
Rhythm King KTB Fit 59/100
Rhythm King holds a KTB Fit of 59. This 6-year-old has won once from nine starts at Galway and races prominently, usually on or close to the lead with medium confidence in that run-style. The trainer and jockey combination has delivered 16 wins from 107 rides with a strong A/E of 1.61 and LSP of +£85.50. Mark Fahey has a 12% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 1.27, while Gavin Ryan shows 11% with an A/E of 1.16. Unproven on good ground with no previous runs, his recent form of 500-60 leaves him with questions to answer but he cannot be dismissed at this venue.
The Sweet Escape KTB Fit 56/100
The Sweet Escape carries a KTB Fit of 56. A 4-year-old with recent form of 244611 that includes two wins, he has one win and one place from six starts on good ground. Typically settling in midfield with limited evidence and low confidence, he tries first-time headgear. David Loughnane and Declan McDonogh have combined for two wins from seven rides at a 29% strike rate. The trainer has a modest 7% strike rate at Galway with an A/E of 1.05, while the jockey shows 10% with an A/E of 0.86. He has no course form on record but his upward trajectory makes him one of the more interesting contenders.
Navagio KTB Fit 54/100
Navagio is rated 54 on KTB Fit. This 7-year-old has been placed five times from eight starts on good ground without winning and now tries first-time headgear. Ciaran Murphy has a 6% strike rate at Galway with an A/E of 0.85, though the trainer and jockey combination shows 9% with an A/E of 1.09 and a small negative LSP. Sam Coen claims 5lb and has an 11% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 1.1. With no course form on record and recent efforts of 35-060, he remains competitive on his best days but needs to improve on recent showings.
The rest of the field
Lough LeaneKTB Fit 54/100
Lough Leane has a KTB Fit of 54. A 6-year-old usually held up with low confidence in that style, he tries first-time headgear. Maurice Andrew Ahern's excellent 67% strike rate at Galway continues, though the jockey has a 3% strike rate here with an A/E of 0.51. Placed twice from five starts on good ground with no course form, his recent form of 274106 suggests he can be involved at this level.
Marta's PrinceKTB Fit 53/100
Marta's Prince is rated 53 on KTB Fit. This 4-year-old is held up with low confidence and has no wins or places from two runs on good ground. The trainer and jockey have yet to strike in seven rides together. With a 7% strike rate for the yard at Galway and a modest 5% for the rider, he has no course form and recent efforts of 147-05 leave him with plenty to find.
Spent All Me MoneyKTB Fit 52/100
Spent All Me Money holds a KTB Fit of 52. A 4-year-old usually held up with low confidence, he tries first-time headgear. One win and one place from four starts on good ground, the trainer has an 8% strike rate at Galway with a positive A/E of 1.46. Shane Foley has a 10% strike rate at the track, but with no course form and recent runs of 310-00 this looks a stiff task.
Apache OutlawKTB Fit 50/100
Apache Outlaw is on 50 KTB Fit. This 6-year-old is a confirmed held-up performer with high confidence and now tries first-time headgear. One win from 23 starts on good with three places, he has been placed once in two runs at Galway. Adrian McGuinness has a 7% strike rate at the track, though the jockey is on 5% with an A/E of 0.53. Recent form of 064350 shows consistency but he may find a few too good.
Bay Of DreamsKTB Fit 48/100
Bay Of Dreams has a KTB Fit of 48. A 4-year-old who typically settles in midfield with low confidence, he tries first-time headgear. Two wins and five places from eight starts on good ground, he finished fifth on his only run at Galway. The trainer has a 6% strike rate at the venue while the claiming jockey is yet to score in 12 rides here. Recent form of 009315 indicates he remains capable on his day.
FaoladhKTB Fit 47/100
Faoladh is rated 47 on KTB Fit. This 4-year-old is held up with medium confidence and has two wins and four places from ten runs on good ground. The trainer has a 7% strike rate at Galway with an A/E of 0.95, but the claiming jockey is 0 from 5 at the track. Fourteenth on his only course visit, his recent form of 316900 suggests he needs to improve.
Chester NimitzKTB Fit 46/100
Chester Nimitz carries a KTB Fit of 46. A 4-year-old held up with medium confidence, he tries first-time headgear. Placed twice from five starts on good ground, the trainer has an 8% strike rate at Galway with an A/E of 0.98. Seventh on his only course run, recent form of 1-5990 leaves him with questions to answer at this level.
La La LucrativeKTB Fit 45/100
La La Lucrative has a KTB Fit of 45. This 5-year-old is usually held up with low confidence and boasts three wins and three places from ten starts on good ground. The trainer has a 9% strike rate at Galway with an A/E of 1.04, though the jockey is on 3% with an A/E of 0.58. No course form on record and recent form of 97-181 means he cannot be entirely ruled out.
Gloriously GlamKTB Fit 42/100
Gloriously Glam is on 42 KTB Fit. A 4-year-old held up with medium confidence, she tries first-time headgear. Placed six times from eleven starts on good ground without winning, the trainer is yet to score in two runs at Galway. Shane Foley has a 10% strike rate at the track but she was thirteenth on her only visit here and recent form of 813852 shows she is competitive at a lower level.
MytimetoshineKTB Fit 42/100
Mytimetoshine holds a KTB Fit of 42. This 6-year-old is unproven on good ground with no previous runs and finished third on his only visit to Galway. The trainer has yet to score in seven runs at the track. Recent form of 06637- suggests he retains some ability but the lack of experience on the surface is a concern.
Minaun ViewKTB Fit 41/100
Minaun View is rated 41 on KTB Fit. A 4-year-old who tends to make the running or race prominently with medium confidence, he tries first-time headgear. Two wins and three places from seven starts on good ground, the trainer has a 7% strike rate at Galway. No course form on record and recent form of 528112 means he could go well if allowed an easy lead.
Mickey The SteelKTB Fit 36/100
Mickey The Steel has a KTB Fit of 36. An 8-year-old usually held up with medium confidence, he tries first-time headgear. Placed three times from thirteen starts on good ground, the trainer is yet to score in six runs at Galway. No course form and recent efforts of 320373 indicate he is modest at this level.
Buttermere RidgeKTB Fit 32/100
Buttermere Ridge is the lowest rated on 32 KTB Fit. A 5-year-old with front-running tendencies on limited evidence and low confidence, he tries first-time headgear. No wins or places from five starts on good ground, the trainer is 0 from 28 at Galway. Fourteenth and ninth in two runs here, his recent form of 00-974 leaves him with a lot to find.
KTB verdict
Storm Averted is the KTB Selection. He brings course-winning form, a placed effort on good ground and the benefit of first-time headgear, along with the outstanding record of his trainer at Galway. The selection can take advantage of what looks a favourable pace shape with a lone leader likely to set an uncontested gallop. His main dangers are San Aer, who has a strong record at the track and on the ground, and Rhythm King, who will be prominent and has solid course form, though he is unproven on good. The Sweet Escape and Navagio are the next most likely to feature from the top five.
KTB Selection Storm Averted
This is the narrative read of the 5:35 Galway. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Galway racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the strongest trainer record at Galway in this race?
Maurice Andrew Ahern with a 67% strike rate and A/E of 9.67 from three runs.
How many of the principals are wearing first-time headgear?
Four of the five principals are wearing first-time headgear: Storm Averted, San Aer, The Sweet Escape and Navagio.
Which runner is most likely to set the pace according to the pace shape and run-styles?
A lone leader is expected with high confidence, most likely to be contested by Rhythm King, Minaun View or Buttermere Ridge given their prominent or front-running styles.
Which horse has the best recent winning form among the principals?
The Sweet Escape with recent form of 244611 including two wins.
How many runners in the full field have no course form at Galway?
Ten runners have no course form on record: The Sweet Escape, Navagio, Lough Leane, Marta's Prince, Spent All Me Money, La La Lucrative, Minaun View, Mickey The Steel, and two others with limited placed efforts elsewhere.
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