8:20 Kempton (AW)
This Class 4 handicap over seven furlongs at Kempton on standard to slow ground brings together eight three-year-olds, several of whom have shown fair form without yet establishing themselves as pattern performers. The KTB Fit Scores sit in a narrow band from 59 down to 41, underlining a competitive but unspectacular field where lightly-raced types and those with course experience hold the stronger claims. Connections and draw are likely to matter on a track where the pace is expected to be strong.
How the race shapes up
With two confirmed front-runners in Captain Fox and Victory Ace, plus several others who race prominently, the pace shape is strongly positive and a collapse in the latter stages is a distinct possibility. That scenario would play into the hands of hold-up performers such as Piscean Star, Quadrillion, Blakefell and Doodling, who can pounce late off a softening pace. The key question is whether the early speed burns itself out or whether one of the front-runners can dictate and hold on in what looks a race run to suit those coming from off the pace.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Angel Gabriel KTB Selection59/100Fair performer who showed useful placed form as a juvenile before two modest efforts this year.
- 2Captain Fox57/100Fair performer who has shown ability at this trip on two previous runs without managing to win.
- 3Victory Ace56/100Fair performer who has shown decent consistency this year with a win and two placed efforts from his last five starts.
- 4Piscean Star55/100Piscean Star is a fair 3-year-old who showed useful promise as a juvenile, winning on debut here over this trip on standard-to-slow ground before a solid second…
- 5Quadrillion53/100Fair performer who has shown placed form over this trip on his two starts last year.
- 6Jumeirah Sands52/100Fair performer who has shown useful placed form on this track, finishing second here on his only visit.
- 7Blakefell51/100Fair performer who showed useful pace when winning a 7f handicap here in February before running creditably in stronger company.
- 8Doodling41/100Modest performer who showed improved form when winning a 6f handicap at Lingfield last time.
The contenders
Angel Gabriel KTB Fit 59/100
Angel Gabriel is a fair performer who showed useful placed form as a juvenile before two modest efforts this year. He has the benefit of a good draw in stall three and connections that know their way around Kempton, with trainer Ralph Beckett recording an 18% strike rate at the track and jockey Rossa Ryan a 14% strike rate. The trip remains a question having failed to win in one previous try over seven furlongs, while going suitability is unknown on the basis of only five career runs and no previous experience of standard to slow. Typically settling in midfield, he is well placed to take advantage should the strong pace collapse late. Overall he rates the selection with a KTB Fit Score of 59.
Captain Fox KTB Fit 57/100
Captain Fox is a fair performer who has shown ability at this trip on two previous runs without managing to win. Dropping back from a mile looks a sensible move although he was only fifth on his sole course visit and recent form has been patchy. Trainer Richard Hughes holds a 13% strike rate at Kempton while jockey Finley Marsh is on 11%, both solid if unspectacular. A habitual front-runner, he is sure to be prominent early in a race where the pace is likely to be strong. That could leave him vulnerable to late challengers if the front end collapses, leaving him with questions to answer on standard to slow ground where he is 0-1.
Victory Ace KTB Fit 56/100
Victory Ace is a fair performer who has shown decent consistency this year with a win and two placed efforts from his last five starts. He has already placed over course and distance here, finishing second, and is dropping back to a trip he has won over previously. First-time headgear is now fitted and the trainer's modest 10% strike rate at this venue tempers expectations, while jockey M. P. Sheehy has a neutral record at Kempton. As a front-runner he will be to the fore early in what is likely to be a strongly-run affair, and he has shown he is competitive on standard to slow ground having placed once from two attempts.
Piscean Star KTB Fit 55/100
Piscean Star is a fair 3-year-old who showed useful promise as a juvenile, winning on debut here over this trip on standard-to-slow ground before a solid second on turf. He returns from a break with a strong draw in stall one and the yard and jockey both hold respectable records at Kempton, Oisin Murphy boasting an 18% strike rate at the venue. He remains lightly raced overall so there is still scope for improvement, though the recent form leaves him with something to prove against sharper types. A hold-up performer, he is ideally suited to the expected strong pace that could collapse late, and he steps up in class having won on his only previous visit to Kempton.
The rest of the field
QuadrillionKTB Fit 53/100
Quadrillion is a fair performer who has shown placed form over this trip on his two starts last year. He was below that level on return at Newmarket last month yet remains lightly raced with scope to improve. Trainer Harry Charlton operates at a 9% strike rate here while jockey Colin Keane boasts a strong 41% record at the track, though the horse is unproven on standard to slow ground.
Jumeirah SandsKTB Fit 52/100
Jumeirah Sands is a fair performer who has shown useful placed form on this track, finishing second here on his only visit. He steps up from 6f for the first time today which asks a fresh question of him, and both trainer and jockey sit on 0% strike rates at Kempton from modest samples. He has placed once from one run on standard to slow.
BlakefellKTB Fit 51/100
Blakefell is a fair performer who showed useful pace when winning a 7f handicap here in February before running creditably in stronger company. Dropping back from 1m1f looks a sensible move and the booking of Silvestre De Sousa is a plus given his solid 17% strike rate at Kempton, though trainer Ivan Furtado's modest 8% record at the track is a slight negative. He steps up in class and is 0-1 on standard to slow.
DoodlingKTB Fit 41/100
Doodling is a modest performer who showed improved form when winning a 6f handicap at Lingfield last time. He steps up to 7f today having been well held in both previous attempts at the trip and the small sample on this surface leaves going suitability unclear, though he has placed once from one run on standard to slow. Trainer Eve Johnson Houghton has a solid 10% strike rate here while the jockey is operating at 5%.
KTB verdict
Angel Gabriel is the KTB Selection. He brings the highest Fit Score of 59, a good draw, and connections well versed at Kempton, and he is well positioned from midfield to capitalise if the strongly-run pace collapses as expected. His juvenile placed form gives him a solid base, even if the trip and surface remain unknowns. The main dangers are Victory Ace, who has already placed over course and distance and now tries first-time headgear, and Piscean Star, who won here on his only previous visit and is ideally suited to the race shape from the rear. Captain Fox is likely to set the pace but may prove vulnerable late.
KTB Selection Angel Gabriel
This is the narrative read of the 8:20 Kempton (AW). For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Kempton (AW) racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horses are suited by the expected strong pace?
Hold-up horses such as Piscean Star, Quadrillion, Blakefell and Doodling are favoured if the strong pace collapses late as the pace shape suggests.
Who has course and distance form at Kempton?
Victory Ace has placed second over course and distance, while Piscean Star won here over this trip on his only visit.
Which trainer and jockey combination has the strongest record at Kempton AW?
Colin Keane has a 41% strike rate at Kempton from 17 rides, while Silvestre De Sousa is on 17% and Rossa Ryan 14%.
Which runners are stepping up in class?
Piscean Star, Blakefell and Doodling are all stepping up in class for this race.
Who is wearing first-time headgear?
Victory Ace is fitted with first-time headgear.
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