6:20 Kempton (AW)
This Class 3 division of the Unibet/British Stallion Studs EBF Novice Stakes over 7f at Kempton on standard to slow ground brings together a field of nine juveniles, the majority of whom are debutants. The KTB Fit scores are tightly bunched at the top, with Sayid Harry Angel heading the numbers on 57 despite stepping up in class, followed closely by Clive The Writer, Ghost Raider and Gold Army. With no established leader in a race that lacks pace on paper, the outcome is likely to hinge on which newcomer can translate pedigree and sales appeal most effectively on this surface.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape indicates a lack of obvious front-runner, pointing to a steadily-run, tactical contest in which being handy from the break should prove advantageous. Most of the principals are noted as held-up types with limited evidence, so the race could develop into a sprint for the line in the straight. The key question is whether any of the debutants can overcome the absence of a strong pace and show the necessary early adaptability on their first run at Kempton.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Sayid Harry Angel KTB Selection57/100Usually held up and produces its effort late.
- 2Clive The Writer53/100Usually held up and produces its effort late.
- 3Ghost Raider52/100Ghost Raider is a newcomer from a yard that operates at a solid 18% strike rate at Kempton.
- 4Gold Army50/100Gold Army is a newcomer with no racecourse experience so the form relies entirely on his pedigree and sales background.
- 5Montalbano47/100Montalbano is a newcomer from a yard that operates at a solid 15% strike-rate at Kempton.
- 6Dover Street47/100
- 7Moda Rosa45/100Moda Rosa showed only modest form when sixth on debut over 6½f.
- 8Fulcrum45/100Fulcrum is a newcomer from the Gosden yard which has a solid 21% strike-rate at this track from a big sample.
- 9Great Plains45/100Great Plains is a newcomer from a yard that operates at a 9% strike rate at Kempton.
The contenders
Sayid Harry Angel KTB Fit 57/100
Sayid Harry Angel tops the KTB Fit ratings on 57 and is the selection. A 2-year-old stepping up in class, he is yet to race on standard to slow ground and has no course form on record. Richard Hughes posts a 13% strike rate at Kempton from 628 runs with an A/E of 0.92, while Colin Keane is notably strong here with a 41% strike rate and A/E of 1.57 from 17 rides. Usually held up and producing his effort late, though that assessment carries low confidence on limited evidence. At 18/1 in a field of eight he is entitled to be respected given the strength of the KTB numbers.
Clive The Writer KTB Fit 53/100
Clive The Writer is second in the KTB Fit order on 53. This 2-year-old has shown form of 7 and is unproven on standard to slow ground with no course record. The combination of William Muir & Chris Grassick and Silvestre De Sousa has a 4/21 (19%) record with an A/E of 1.29 and LSP of +£2.83. The trainer’s 11% strike rate at Kempton from 140 runs carries an A/E of 1.01, while the jockey’s 17% strike rate from 846 rides here has an A/E of 1.01. Usually held up and producing his effort late according to limited evidence, he should be suited by the steadily-run nature of the race.
Ghost Raider KTB Fit 52/100
Ghost Raider sits third on KTB Fit with a score of 52. A newcomer from Ralph Beckett’s yard, which operates at an 18% strike rate at Kempton from 1115 runs with an A/E of 0.99. Rossa Ryan adds a 14% strike rate at the track from 851 rides with an A/E of 0.9, though low data confidence means the assessment rests mainly on pedigree and sales background. By Invincible Spirit, who has a 12% overall win rate from 22738 runners, he has no course win on record. The yard knows the venue well and the colt is expected to be suited by the tactical pace shape.
Gold Army KTB Fit 50/100
Gold Army is rated 50 on KTB Fit and is a newcomer with no racecourse experience, so his claims rest entirely on pedigree and sales background. By Intello, who has a 10% overall win rate from 3487 runners, he has no course win on record. Harry Charlton’s yard has a modest 9% strike rate at Kempton from 91 runs with an A/E of 0.62, while Lewis Edmunds brings a solid 15% strike rate from 265 rides here with an A/E of 1.38. The trainer and jockey combination shows 11/58 (19%) with an A/E of 1.03 and LSP of -£5.52. With low data confidence this debutant remains something of an unknown quantity.
The rest of the field
MontalbanoKTB Fit 47/100
Montalbano is a newcomer rated 47 on KTB Fit. From Andrew Balding’s yard, which has a 15% strike rate at Kempton from 1793 runs with an A/E of 0.89, and ridden by Oisin Murphy who has an 18% strike rate from 1410 rides here with an A/E of 0.9. By Saxon Warrior, who has a 12% overall win rate from 2781 runners, he cost 150,000 guineas as a yearling out of a mare who produced useful winners, though his immediate family has shown better form on turf than on the all-weather. Connections are in decent form here but with low confidence on a debutant the picture remains sketchy.
Dover StreetKTB Fit 47/100
Dover Street is rated 47 on KTB Fit. A 2-year-old by Persian Force, who has a 14% overall win rate from 113 runners, he has no course win on record. Richard Hannon’s yard has an 11% strike rate at Kempton from 1435 runs with an A/E of 0.8, while David Egan posts a 12% strike rate from 547 rides here with an A/E of 0.93. The trainer and jockey combination shows 3/49 (6%) with an A/E of 0.49 and LSP of -£41.58.
Moda RosaKTB Fit 45/100
Moda Rosa has a KTB Fit of 45. She showed only modest form when sixth on debut over 6½f and now steps up to 7f with the trip looking an open question given her limited experience. Stepping up in class, she is unproven on standard to slow ground with no course form on record. Usually held up and producing her effort late on limited evidence with low confidence. Brian Meehan’s yard has a 9% strike rate at Kempton from 502 runs with an A/E of 0.7, while Joe Leavy has a 6% strike rate from 148 rides here with an A/E of 0.65.
FulcrumKTB Fit 45/100
Fulcrum is a newcomer rated 45 on KTB Fit from the John & Thady Gosden yard, which has a solid 21% strike rate at Kempton from 360 runs with an A/E of 0.8. By Night Of Thunder, who has a 16% overall win rate from 5250 runners, he has no course win on record. The trainer and jockey combination of Robert Havlin shows 223/1052 (21%) with an A/E of 0.88 and LSP of -£150.08. Connections give him every chance on debut and pedigree and sales background offer the only real clues to his ability at this stage.
Great PlainsKTB Fit 45/100
Great Plains is rated 45 on KTB Fit. A newcomer from Alan King’s yard, which operates at a 9% strike rate at Kempton from 447 runs with an A/E of 0.75. By Sioux Nation, who has a 13% overall win rate from 2757 runners, he has a solid pedigree and was a respectable sales purchase, but with no racecourse evidence the form claims remain guesswork. Connections are experienced here yet both trainer and jockey sit below the course average. Kieran Shoemark has a 10% strike rate at the track from 778 rides with an A/E of 0.82.
KTB verdict
Sayid Harry Angel is the KTB Selection. He heads the Fit ratings on 57 in a race where the top four are closely matched, and the combination of Colin Keane’s strong record at Kempton and the yard’s familiarity with the venue gives him a clear edge on the numbers. The steadily-run affair should suit his held-up style if he can produce his effort at the right time. Main dangers are the well-supported newcomers Ghost Raider from the Beckett yard and Gold Army, along with Clive The Writer who brings some racecourse experience. Montalbano and the Gosden newcomer Fulcrum cannot be entirely dismissed either in a race where several hold claims on pedigree alone.
KTB Selection Sayid Harry Angel
This is the narrative read of the 6:20 Kempton (AW). For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Kempton (AW) racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the strongest jockey record at Kempton on all-weather?
Colin Keane has a 41% strike rate at Kempton (AW) with an A/E of 1.57 from 17 rides.
How many of the field are debutants?
Seven of the nine runners are newcomers with no previous racecourse form.
Which trainer has the highest strike rate at Kempton in this field?
John & Thady Gosden have a 21% strike rate at Kempton from 360 runs.
What run-style is shared by the top three in the KTB Fit rankings?
Sayid Harry Angel, Clive The Writer and Moda Rosa are all noted as usually held up and producing their effort late, though with limited evidence and low confidence.
Which sire in this field has the highest overall win rate?
Night Of Thunder has a 16% overall win rate from 5250 runners.
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