4:40 Thirsk
This Class 6 handicap over six furlongs at Thirsk on good ground brings together an even field of eleven three-year-olds, most of them modest performers with little to separate them on recent efforts. The KTB Fit ratings reflect a tight contest at the top, headed by Yellow Diamonds at 53, followed closely by Maximum Velocity on 51 and Great Profit on 50, with the remainder bunched between 45 and 35. Dropping in class is a theme for several, while the first-time headgear on one contender and a range of unproven elements on the surface add layers to the puzzle.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape points to a lone leader with high confidence, suggesting one horse will secure an uncontested lead that could prove difficult for the closers to reel in late. Most of the field, including the top five in the KTB Fit order, are held-up types who produce their efforts from off the pace, which sets up a race where the key question is whether any of those late runners can bridge the gap to a clear front-runner on this track. Lope Y Linda is the one noted as tending to make the running or race prominently, while Agric Ranger is likely to be prominent but with limited evidence. This shape favours those who can quicken effectively off a steady gallop.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Yellow Diamonds KTB Selection53/100Modest performer who has been consistent enough without winning, finishing no worse than fifth in four of her last five starts.
- 2Maximum Velocity51/100Modest performer who has shown a bit more consistency since the turn of the year, finishing placed on his last three starts including two efforts at this trip.
- 3Great Profit50/100Modest performer who has shown consistent placed form at this trip on his last three starts.
- 4Real Jack45/100Modest performer who has shown little since a promising second on debut.
- 5Soul Warrior45/100Limited performer who has already shown his best at this trip with a win from five runs.
- 6Overbudget44/100Modest performer who has shown bits of ability on three of his last four starts yet remains winless.
- 7Lope Y Linda41/100Limited performer who has been consistent enough in recent starts without winning since last summer.
- 8Mare Of London38/100Limited performer who has shown little spark in two runs this year and was well held when seventh over 5f here on her only previous visit to Thirsk.
- 9Liquid Cooled38/100Limited horse who has shown just fair form at this level, winning once over today's trip from four attempts.
- 10Hellcat36/100Limited performer who has shown some spark at this track, finishing third on his last two visits to Thirsk.
- 11Agric Ranger35/100Limited performer who has shown little encouragement in five starts to date.
The contenders
Yellow Diamonds KTB Fit 53/100
Yellow Diamonds is a modest performer who has been consistent enough without winning, finishing no worse than fifth in four of her last five starts. She has already tried this track once without success and has shown little on good ground in two runs. Stepping up to 6f for the first time asks a fresh question while the trainer's modest 9% strike rate at Thirsk offers no particular edge. The KTB Fit score of 53 tops the field and she is the selection. As a held-up type she will be looking to come from off the pace in a race with a lone leader likely to have things their own way out front. Trainer Julie Camacho and jockey Ryan Sexton both have below-par records at the track, with the yard at 9% from 261 runs and the rider at 10% from 60 rides.
Maximum Velocity KTB Fit 51/100
Maximum Velocity is a modest performer who has shown a bit more consistency since the turn of the year, finishing placed on his last three starts including two efforts at this trip. He acts on good ground and the first-time headgear is another plus, though the yard's modest record at Thirsk is a concern. Stall seven looks fine and he should go well again without quite being a standout. The KTB Fit score of 51 places him second in the rankings. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he will need to find a way past a clear front-runner in what is likely to be an uncontested lead. Nigel Tinkler is on a 5% strike rate at the track from 623 runs and Faye McManoman is similarly on 5% from 106 rides.
Great Profit KTB Fit 50/100
Great Profit is a modest performer who has shown consistent placed form at this trip on his last three starts. Recent efforts suggest he is competitive at this level without looking progressive. Trainer has no recorded runners at Thirsk. With a KTB Fit score of 50 he sits third in the order and is one of the more reliable operators in a tight field. Usually held up, though with medium confidence on that run-style, he will be among those trying to close late in a race shaped by a lone leader. Barry McHugh has a 7% strike rate at Thirsk from 336 rides while the yard's lack of a record at the venue leaves his trainer's record neutral at 0% from two runs.
Real Jack KTB Fit 45/100
Real Jack is a modest performer who has shown little since a promising second on debut. Drops back to 6f today having failed to trouble the judge in four previous runs at the trip, while his sole run here produced a midfield finish. Trainer Michael Dods has a 10% strike rate from 1147 runs at Thirsk and jockey Connor Beasley is similarly established at the track. Rated 45 on the KTB Fit scale, he is dropping in class which may help. A held-up type with high confidence, he will be another chasing the pace from the rear in a contest where the leader could prove hard to peg back. He has three runs on good ground without placing.
Soul Warrior KTB Fit 45/100
Soul Warrior is a limited performer who has already shown his best at this trip with a win from five runs. He drops back from 7f having been out of form on his last two starts and makes his first visit to Thirsk. The trainer's modest 5% strike-rate from 623 runs at the track adds little encouragement. On a KTB Fit mark of 45 he shares fourth spot in the rankings. Usually held up with high confidence, he will need to produce his effort late against what is likely to be an uncontested lead. He has been placed once from two runs on good ground but remains without a win on the surface.
The rest of the field
OverbudgetKTB Fit 44/100
Overbudget is a modest performer who has shown bits of ability on three of his last four starts yet remains winless. Has been tried over today's trip three times without success and is drawn low in a race where that may not be ideal. Trainer has a solid 9% strike-rate at Thirsk from a big sample of runners. Usually held up with medium confidence on run-style.
Lope Y LindaKTB Fit 41/100
Lope Y Linda is a limited performer who has been consistent enough in recent starts without winning since last summer. Drops back to 6f today having looked stretched over a mile last time, though he has failed to place in two previous tries at the distance. Trainer operates at an 8% strike rate here from a large sample. Tends to make the running or race on the pace.
Mare Of LondonKTB Fit 38/100
Mare Of London is a limited performer who has shown little spark in two runs this year and was well held when seventh over 5f here on her only previous visit to Thirsk. She steps up to 6f for the first time today having been placed at the trip last season, though her record on good ground remains winless from four starts. The yard's modest 6% strike rate at the track adds little encouragement. Usually held up with high confidence.
Liquid CooledKTB Fit 38/100
Liquid Cooled is a limited horse who has shown just fair form at this level, winning once over today's trip from four attempts. Drawn in stall 1 which could be an advantage at Thirsk but the yard's modest 6% strike rate from 130 runs here tempers expectations. Jockey Harry Vigors is 0-8 at the track. Usually held up with high confidence and dropping in class.
HellcatKTB Fit 36/100
Hellcat is a limited performer who has shown some spark at this track, finishing third on his last two visits to Thirsk. He has been competitive on good ground but remains winless in eight starts and has failed to land a blow at this trip in five attempts. The trainer has had too few runners here to form any reliable view. Usually held up with high confidence.
Agric RangerKTB Fit 35/100
Agric Ranger is a limited performer who has shown little encouragement in five starts to date. Steps up from 5f to 6f today having already tried the trip four times without success. Trainer operates at an 8% strike rate from over 2000 runs at Thirsk. Usually races handily, on or close to the lead, though with limited evidence.
KTB verdict
Yellow Diamonds tops the KTB Fit ratings and is the selection in a race where so many are modest and closely matched. She has been reliable enough of late, finishing no worse than fifth in four of her last five starts, and the drop in class may bring improvement as she tackles 6f for the first time. The uncontested lead predicted by the pace shape will make life tough for held-up types such as her, yet she still emerges as the one with the strongest overall profile. Main dangers are Maximum Velocity, who brings placed form at the trip, first-time headgear and a solid draw, and Great Profit, whose consistency at this level keeps him firmly in the mix.
KTB Selection Yellow Diamonds
This is the narrative read of the 4:40 Thirsk. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Thirsk racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is likely to get the uncontested lead?
Lope Y Linda is the one noted as tending to make the running or race on the pace in a pace shape that points to a lone leader with high confidence.
How many of the top five KTB Fit horses are held-up types?
All five of the principals are described as held up, with high confidence on run-style for four of them.
Which horse is dropping in class and has the best trainer strike rate at Thirsk among the principals?
Real Jack is dropping in class and his trainer Michael Dods has a 10% strike rate at Thirsk from 1147 runs.
Which runner has course form at Thirsk including two third-place finishes?
Hellcat has run three times here with figures of 10th, 3rd and 3rd.
What is the KTB Fit score of the selection and how does it compare to the rest of the field?
Yellow Diamonds has a KTB Fit score of 53, the highest in the field, with the next best being Maximum Velocity on 51.
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