2:10 Ascot
This Class 2 Shergar Cup Stayers handicap over 1m7f209y at Ascot on good to firm ground brings together an 11-runner field where the KTB numbers highlight a competitive but open-looking contest. The top five in the Fit ranking are separated by only 18 points, with Kilmeaden heading the list on 70. Most of the field are held-up types, and the lack of an obvious leader points to a race that could be decided by timing and positioning rather than sustained speed.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape lacks a leader and confidence is medium, suggesting a steadily-run, tactical affair in which being handy should pay. With the majority of runners, including all five principals, tending to be held up and producing their efforts late, the race is likely to develop into a test of when to make the move. The key question is which horse can time its run best off what should be an even gallop, with those able to race prominently or mid-division potentially benefiting from first run.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Kilmeaden KTB Selection70/100Useful performer who has shown mixed form this year and now tries first-time headgear.
- 2Spirit Mixer62/100Useful performer who has run respectably at this track without winning, finishing no better than fourth from three starts.
- 3Shrimp Shady60/100Shrimp Shady is a useful performer who has won four times from 12 starts and arrives in solid form having landed two of his last three races.
- 4Beylerbeyi59/100Useful performer who has run well enough at this track without winning.
- 5Mountain Road52/100Fair performer who has won three times at today's trip from nine attempts and showed his best recent effort when landing a race last time out.
- 6Marnier50/100Marnier is a fair performer who ran well to finish third in a similar race at Newmarket last time and has solid recent form overall.
- 7Dancing In Paris48/100Useful performer who has won once from four runs at Ascot.
- 8Lavender Hill Mob48/100Useful performer who has run three times at this track without placing.
- 9Oneforthegutter45/100Fair handicapper who has won once from three starts at this track.
- 10Hermetic43/100Hermetic is a fair performer who has shown mixed form since a winning debut, finishing no better than fourth on his last two starts.
- 11Pole Star37/100Pole Star is a fair performer who has been a bit hit and miss this year with a recent form of 43509.
The contenders
Kilmeaden KTB Fit 70/100
Kilmeaden is a useful performer who has shown mixed form this year and now tries first-time headgear. He drops back to a trip he has won at previously though his sole run on good to firm ground brought no joy. The trainer has a 33% strike rate at Ascot with an A/E of 1.51 from three runs while the jockey has a 20% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 1.65 from five rides. Usually held up and producing its effort late, he is drawn in stall 7. Recent form reads 02-735 and this is his first visit to the course. The KTB Fit score is 70 and he is the selection.
Spirit Mixer KTB Fit 62/100
Spirit Mixer is a useful performer who has run respectably at this track without winning, finishing no better than fourth from three starts. He drops back in trip today having last run over 2m, a distance at which he has won three times from 12 attempts, though his record on good to firm is only modest with two wins from 14 starts. The trainer has a 9% strike rate at Ascot with an A/E of 0.9 from 1044 runs while the jockey has a 15% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 1.62 from 141 rides. Usually held up and producing its effort late with high confidence, he is drawn in stall 2. Recent form reads 4-3040 and his trainer-jockey combination shows 1 win from 7 rides. The KTB Fit score is 62.
Shrimp Shady KTB Fit 60/100
Shrimp Shady is a useful performer who has won four times from 12 starts and arrives in solid form having landed two of his last three races. He has an excellent record on good to firm ground with two wins from two starts and is proven at today's trip where he has been placed. The trainer has a 9% strike rate at Ascot with an A/E of 0.9 from 1044 runs while the jockey has a 14% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 0.78 from 1250 rides. Their trainer-jockey record together reads 13 wins from 92 rides. Usually held up and producing its effort late, he is drawn in stall 10. Recent form reads 412161 and this is his first visit to the course. The KTB Fit score is 60.
Beylerbeyi KTB Fit 59/100
Beylerbeyi is a useful performer who has run well enough at this track without winning. He steps up in trip today having been below form on his last two starts and first-time headgear is now applied. The trainer has an 8% strike rate at Ascot with an A/E of 0.87 from 348 runs. Usually held up and producing its effort late with high confidence, he is drawn in stall 1. Recent form reads 236084 and he has two wins from eight starts on good to firm. He has run twice here without placing. The KTB Fit score is 59.
Mountain Road KTB Fit 52/100
Mountain Road is a fair performer who has won three times at today's trip from nine attempts and showed his best recent effort when landing a race last time out. He handles good to firm ground and has a solid strike rate on it from limited starts. The trainer has a 7% strike rate at Ascot with an A/E of 1 from 145 runs while the jockey has a 7% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 0.68 from 54 rides. Usually held up and producing its effort late, he is drawn in stall 9. Recent form reads 8/4351 and this represents a step up in class as well as his first run at the track. The KTB Fit score is 52.
The rest of the field
MarnierKTB Fit 50/100
Marnier is a fair performer who ran well to finish third in a similar race at Newmarket last time and has solid recent form overall. He has limited experience at Ascot where he finished fifth on his only run here and is unproven on good to firm ground from a single run. The step up in trip is an unknown and he now tries headgear for the first time. Recent form reads -72631 and the KTB Fit score is 50.
Dancing In ParisKTB Fit 48/100
Dancing In Paris is a useful performer who has won once from four runs at Ascot. He has struggled this season with three poor efforts from his last four starts and has never placed in eight runs on good to firm ground. Stepping up markedly in trip today asks a fresh question of a horse whose recent form is modest. Recent form reads 40-905 and the KTB Fit score is 48.
Lavender Hill MobKTB Fit 48/100
Lavender Hill Mob is a useful performer who has run three times at this track without placing. He drops back from 2m4f to a trip he has won at before, though his four runs on good to firm have produced no win or place. First-time headgear is now applied. Recent form reads 03-860 and the KTB Fit score is 48.
OneforthegutterKTB Fit 45/100
Oneforthegutter is a fair handicapper who has won once from three starts at this track. Recent form has been ordinary and the first-time headgear is now reached for after three poor efforts this year. He steps up in trip today which asks a fresh question of a horse with only one win from 12 starts on good to firm. Recent form reads 08-788 and the KTB Fit score is 45.
HermeticKTB Fit 43/100
Hermetic is a fair performer who has shown mixed form since a winning debut, finishing no better than fourth on his last two starts. He drops back in trip today having looked stretched by 2m last time, though he was beaten on his only previous run at this distance. The yard has an 8% strike rate from 348 runs at Ascot. Recent form reads 14-464 and the KTB Fit score is 43.
Pole StarKTB Fit 37/100
Pole Star is a fair performer who has been a bit hit and miss this year with a recent form of 43509. He steps up in trip today having shown only modest form at around 1m6f and has never won on good to firm ground despite placing twice from five runs. The yard has a modest 3 percent strike rate at Ascot from 90 runs while this is the horse's first visit to the track. The KTB Fit score is 37.
KTB verdict
Kilmeaden is the KTB Selection. He is a useful performer who drops back to a trip he has won at previously while first-time headgear is now applied, and the trainer-jockey combination both hold strong records at Ascot. The steadily-run nature of the race should suit his held-up style if the timing is right. Main dangers are Shrimp Shady, who arrives in solid form with a fine record on good to firm, and Spirit Mixer, who has run respectably at the track in the past. Beylerbeyi and Mountain Road are next in the KTB Fit order and cannot be entirely dismissed.
KTB Selection Kilmeaden
This is the narrative read of the 2:10 Ascot. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Ascot racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the strongest recent winning record on good to firm ground?
Shrimp Shady, with two wins from two starts on good to firm.
How many principals are trying first-time headgear?
Two: Kilmeaden and Beylerbeyi.
Which horse has won at Ascot previously?
Dancing In Paris has won here once from four runs, and Oneforthegutter has won here once from three starts.
Who holds the best trainer strike rate at Ascot among those with supplied figures?
Faye Bramley with a 33% strike rate at Ascot from three runs for Kilmeaden.
How many runners in the field are stepping up in trip or class?
Several: Beylerbeyi steps up in trip, Mountain Road steps up in class, Marnier steps up in class and in trip, Dancing In Paris steps up markedly in trip, Oneforthegutter steps up in trip, Hermetic drops back in trip, and Pole Star steps up in trip.
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