8:10 Lingfield (AW)
This Class 6 classified stakes over 6f 1y at Lingfield on standard ground brings together a field of ten limited performers where the KTB Fit Scores top out at 59 and reflect a modest overall standard. The race lacks any obvious pace influence, with the majority of runners tending to be held up, and the KTB numbers point to a tactical contest in which being handy could prove advantageous. Recent form is mixed across the board, with several runners stepping up or down in trip and multiple first-time headgear applications adding an element of unknown.
How the race shapes up
With no one obviously wanting the lead the pace is expected to be steady rather than strong, making this a tactical affair in which prominent positioning should pay. Most of the field, including the top five in the KTB Fit rankings, are held-up types who produce their effort late, so the key question is whether any of them can quicken effectively off a modest gallop or if the prominent runner Dr Ali can steal a march. The draw may also come into play on the Lingfield straight, with those nearest the stands rail potentially better placed to pick up the pieces.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1A Lott Of Kane KTB Selection59/100Limited horse who has already shown some ability on this track when third here over 5f.
- 2Roman Spring50/100Limited performer who has won once from six runs at this track and also has a win over today's trip on his record.
- 3Edergole's Gift48/100Limited performer who has won once from 11 starts at Lingfield but has been out of form for some time with a string of modest efforts.
- 4Just King High47/100Limited performer who has been struggling for consistency all year and showed little at this track on his only previous visit.
- 5Horus45/100Horus is a limited performer who has been struggling for consistency lately and now tries first-time headgear.
- 6Henry Tudor43/100Limited performer who has been in and out this year and looks to have found his level.
- 7Dr Ali42/100Limited performer who has been in and out of form this year and rarely wins at this level.
- 8Rainbow Sorbet41/100Rainbow Sorbet has shown only limited ability in six runs and looks up against it from stall 9 in a race where the yard's 2% strike rate from 98 runs at this tr…
- 9Music And Song35/100Music And Song is a limited performer on the balance of its ratings and eight starts to date.
- 10Paint Your Palette33/100Limited performer who has shown very little in three runs to date.
The contenders
A Lott Of Kane KTB Fit 59/100
A Lott Of Kane is the KTB Selection with a Fit Score of 59 and rates the most solid option in a modest field. This limited three-year-old has already shown some ability on this track when finishing third here over 5f and now steps up to 6f, a trip at which he has won once from six attempts. He holds a solid record on standard going with two wins and three places from eight runs. Trainer Chelsea Banham has a 15% strike rate at Lingfield AW from 153 runs while jockey Joey Haynes operates at 8% from 535 rides here. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he is drawn in stall 5 and arrives with recent form figures of 921451.
Roman Spring KTB Fit 50/100
Roman Spring has a KTB Fit Score of 50 and is a limited performer who has won once from six runs at this track and also has a win over today's trip on his record. Recent form is patchy with figures of 607304 and he now steps back up from 5f with first-time headgear applied. The six-year-old has a modest record on standard ground with one win from nine starts. Trainer Rachel Cook & John Bridger have a 5% strike rate at Lingfield from 73 runs but this is offset by jockey Joe Leavy's solid 16% record here from 116 rides. Usually held up, he is drawn in stall 2.
Edergole's Gift KTB Fit 48/100
Edergole's Gift carries a KTB Fit Score of 48 and is a limited performer who has won once from 11 starts at Lingfield but has been out of form for some time with a string of modest efforts and recent form figures of 630695. He drops back to 6f today having won at the trip earlier in his career yet recent runs suggest he is struggling to produce his best. First-time headgear is now applied while both trainer Conrad Allen and jockey George Wood have below-average records at the track, the yard at 11% from 589 runs and the rider at 8% from 212 rides. The five-year-old has two wins from 16 starts on standard ground and is drawn in stall 8.
Just King High KTB Fit 47/100
Just King High is rated 47 on the KTB Fit scale and is a limited performer who has been struggling for consistency all year with form figures of 289456. He showed little at this track on his only previous visit when finishing ninth. The four-year-old steps up from 5f today having failed to place in five previous tries at the trip while his record on standard ground is modest at best with one win from seven starts. First-time headgear is now applied but the yard's modest strike rate here offers little encouragement. Trainer Ross Burdon has a 17% strike rate at Lingfield from 12 runs and jockey Callum Shepherd is at 10% from 627 rides; he is drawn in stall 3 and is usually held up.
Horus KTB Fit 45/100
Horus has a KTB Fit Score of 45 and is a limited performer who has been struggling for consistency lately with recent form of -64976. He now tries first-time headgear. The four-year-old has won over today's trip and at this track, though his record on standard ground is modest with just one success from ten runs. Trainer Michael Attwater has a modest 7% strike-rate here from 1370 runs while jockey James Glennon remains winless from his six rides at Lingfield. Usually held up, he is drawn widest in stall 10.
The rest of the field
Henry TudorKTB Fit 43/100
Henry Tudor has a KTB Fit Score of 43 and is a limited performer who has been in and out this year and looks to have found his level with form figures of 919987. He has run six times at Lingfield without placing and his record on the standard surface is modest with just one win from nine starts. Trainer Mark Hoad has a 6% strike rate here while Luke Morris fares a bit better at 12%.
Dr AliKTB Fit 42/100
Dr Ali is rated 42 by KTB and is a limited performer who has been in and out of form this year with figures of 216657 and rarely wins at this level. He has run just once at Lingfield, finishing fourth, while the trainer's modest 8% strike rate here from over a thousand runs and the jockey's 4% from 48 rides add little encouragement. First-time headgear is now tried; he is the only prominent runner in the field.
Rainbow SorbetKTB Fit 41/100
Rainbow Sorbet has a KTB Fit Score of 41 and has shown only limited ability in six runs while the yard's 2% strike rate from 98 runs at this track offers little encouragement. She has twice been well beaten here over shorter trips and now steps back up to 6f where she has failed to place in three previous attempts. First-time headgear is reached for on standard ground where she is unplaced in two starts.
Music And SongKTB Fit 35/100
Music And Song is rated 35 by KTB and is a limited performer on the balance of its ratings and eight starts to date with form of 960458. It drops back from 1m1½f to an untried 6f today while making its first visit to Lingfield on standard ground where it has failed to place in three previous runs. The trainer operates at a 7% strike rate here and the jockey at 11%.
Paint Your PaletteKTB Fit 33/100
Paint Your Palette has the lowest KTB Fit Score of 33 and is a limited performer who has shown very little in three runs to date with form of 0-00. First-time headgear is now reached for as he drops back to an untried 6f having been dropping in class. Trainer and jockey both have modest records at the track and he is unproven on standard ground.
KTB verdict
A Lott Of Kane stands out as the KTB Selection in a race where the majority of the field are limited types with patchy recent form. His third over 5f here, proven ability at 6f, and solid record on standard ground give him the most appealing profile, especially from a workable draw and with the trainer holding a positive strike rate at the venue. The main dangers are likely to come from Roman Spring, who has course-and-distance form and the benefit of first-time headgear, and possibly Edergole's Gift if the new headgear sparks a revival, though both have questions to answer on current form.
KTB Selection A Lott Of Kane
This is the narrative read of the 8:10 Lingfield (AW). For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Lingfield (AW) racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Why is the race expected to be tactical?
The pace shape lacks a leader with medium confidence and no one obviously wants the lead, so a steadily-run affair is anticipated in which being handy pays.
Which runner is the only prominent type in the field?
Dr Ali is the only prominent runner, usually racing handily on or close to the lead.
How many of the principals are wearing first-time headgear?
Three of the five principals – Roman Spring, Edergole's Gift and Just King High – are wearing first-time headgear, as is Horus.
What is A Lott Of Kane's record on standard going?
A Lott Of Kane has two wins and three places from eight runs on standard going.
Which horse has the best trainer strike rate at Lingfield AW among the principals?
Just King High's trainer Ross Burdon has a 17% strike rate at Lingfield AW from 12 runs.
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