6:30 Ayr
A Class 5 handicap over 1m2f at Ayr on good ground brings together a field of 14 where the KTB Fit scores are tightly bunched at the top. The principals are headed by Tiger on 63, followed closely by Mr Lincoln on 61, with Geo, Phantom Shadow and Dryburgh completing the main cluster between 56 and 54. Overall the numbers point to a competitive, steadily-run affair in which course and trip experience plus the ability to produce a late effort could prove decisive.
How the race shapes up
With no obvious leader in the field the pace shape is expected to be steady and tactical rather than truly-run. Most of the principals and field runners are held-up types who will be looking to produce their effort from off the pace, meaning those who can get handy or benefit from a good position early may hold an edge. The key question is whether the lack of pace on paper allows the hold-up performers to close effectively or whether one of the few with the ability to race prominently can steal an advantage.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Tiger KTB Selection63/100Tiger is a fair performer who arrives in solid nick after a win last time and has the benefit of a positive trainer record at Ayr.
- 2Mr Lincoln61/100Mr Lincoln is a fair performer who has shown consistent form this year with placed efforts on his last two starts.
- 3Geo56/100Geo is a modest performer with a solid recent record of placed efforts and has already won once from two runs at Ayr.
- 4Phantom Shadow55/100Modest performer who has already won over this trip and at this track from just nine career runs.
- 5Dryburgh54/100Dryburgh is a fair 3 year old with a solid recent record that includes two seconds from his last three starts.
- 6Pol Roger53/100Pol Roger is a modest performer who has run 42 times in the last year and shown his best form when finishing in the frame on his last three starts.
- 7Draupnir53/100Modest performer who has been consistent enough without winning lately, finishing in the frame three times from his last five starts.
- 8Unchartedterritory50/100Modest performer who has shown steady progress and got off the mark last time over 1m1f.
- 9Faeberon50/100Modest performer who has shown some promise on his last two starts, winning a 1m2f maiden at Doncaster before finishing a close third in a handicap at Newmarket…
- 10Path To Peace48/100Path To Peace is a modest maiden who has shown very little in three starts to date.
- 11Annandale47/100Annandale is a limited performer who has won twice at Ayr from ten runs and looks suited by today's good ground with two wins and three places from thirteen att…
- 12Mayor Of Maghera47/100Modest performer who has shown little at this track in three runs.
- 13Ibn Altheeb47/100Modest performer who has been largely consistent this year without winning.
- 14Natzor43/100Modest performer who has won twice at this trip but has been out of form for some time with recent efforts well below best.
The contenders
Tiger KTB Fit 63/100
Tiger is a fair performer who arrives in solid nick after a win last time and has the benefit of a positive trainer record at Ayr. He has already won over today's trip and shown he handles good ground. The booking of an inexperienced jockey at the track and a first run here add a couple of unknowns. Ian Williams holds a 17% strike rate at Ayr with an A/E of 1.42 from 35 runs, while the 3lb claimer Ryan Kavanagh is still seeking his first Ayr winner from three rides. Dropping in class from a recent success, Tiger is held up and usually produces his effort late. His recent form reads 4-6421 and he carries a KTB Fit of 63.
Mr Lincoln KTB Fit 61/100
Mr Lincoln is a fair performer who has shown consistent form this year with placed efforts on his last two starts. He has course experience here at Ayr where he has been placed once from two runs and has a solid record on good ground with four placed efforts from seven starts. Dropping back from 2m1f to 1m2f asks a fresh question while the wide draw in stall 13 is a negative from a trainer and jockey who both have modest strike rates at the track. Iain Jardine operates at 11% at Ayr with an A/E of 0.97 from 895 runs, and Andrew Mullen is on 9% with an A/E of 0.92 from 650 rides. Usually held up with high confidence, his recent form is 8/8623 and he is rated 61 on KTB Fit.
Geo KTB Fit 56/100
Geo is a modest performer with a solid recent record of placed efforts and has already won once from two runs at Ayr. He has been competitive on good ground without winning and is now tried in first-time headgear after one unconvincing run at this trip. The yard and jockey both have established records at the track. Jim Goldie holds an 11% strike rate at Ayr with an A/E of 0.9 from 2843 runs, while Paul Mulrennan is on 14% with an A/E of 0.97 from 1188 rides. Geo is held up with high confidence, drops in class, and his recent form reads 624223 for a KTB Fit of 56.
Phantom Shadow KTB Fit 55/100
Phantom Shadow is a modest performer who has already won over this trip and at this track from just nine career runs. Recent form has been up and down but the latest win came in a similar race and the course record reads a perfect one from one. Trainer and jockey both have solid established records at Ayr though the horse is yet to show any real ability on good ground. Ewan Whillans is 10% at the track with an A/E of 1.06 from 168 runs, and Jason Hart sits on 14% with an A/E of 0.95 from 545 rides. Stepping up in class and held up with high confidence, his recent form is 823521 and he is rated 55 on KTB Fit.
Dryburgh KTB Fit 54/100
Dryburgh is a fair 3 year old with a solid recent record that includes two seconds from his last three starts. He has been competitive on good ground and has placed every time he has tried this trip, though he is yet to win at it. First time headgear is now applied on his first visit to Ayr where the jockey has a respectable record. Oli Rix has no previous Ayr record from five runs overall, while Sam James is 11% at the track with an A/E of 0.85 from 205 rides. Usually held up, his recent form reads -73282 for a KTB Fit of 54.
The rest of the field
Pol RogerKTB Fit 53/100
Pol Roger is a modest performer who has run 42 times in the last year and shown his best form when finishing in the frame on his last three starts. He has won twice at this track from 18 runs and twice at today's trip from 22 attempts, plus he handles good ground. The first-time headgear is an unknown on a horse with plenty of racing behind him.
DraupnirKTB Fit 53/100
Draupnir is a modest performer who has been consistent enough without winning lately, finishing in the frame three times from his last five starts. He steps up in trip today having looked stretched at 1m last time and his only previous try at this distance brought no joy. The Easterby yard and Garritty both have solid records at Ayr.
UnchartedterritoryKTB Fit 50/100
Unchartedterritory is a modest performer who has shown steady progress and got off the mark last time over 1m1f. Steps up in trip today which asks a fresh question while the lightly-raced profile means going suitability remains unknown. Trainer at Ayr has a solid 14% strike rate from 624 runs but the jockey is operating at just 6% from 67 rides here and the horse could only manage fourth on its sole course visit.
FaeberonKTB Fit 50/100
Faeberon is a modest performer who has shown some promise on his last two starts, winning a 1m2f maiden at Doncaster before finishing a close third in a handicap at Newmarket. He steps back up in trip today having already won at this distance, though the first-time headgear is an unknown. The Crisfords have a solid 19% strike rate at Ayr while Dougie Costello sits on a modest 8% from a large sample of rides here.
Path To PeaceKTB Fit 48/100
Path To Peace is a modest maiden who has shown very little in three starts to date. Dropping back from 1m4f to 1m2f raises a fresh question while the first-time headgear is another unknown. The trainer’s 9% strike rate at Ayr from a big sample and the jockey’s 12% record here offer some course stability but the overall form remains thin.
AnnandaleKTB Fit 47/100
Annandale is a limited performer who has won twice at Ayr from ten runs and looks suited by today's good ground with two wins and three places from thirteen attempts. He drops back from 1m5f to a trip he has won over before. The yard's 11% strike-rate at the track from a huge sample and the jockey's 12% from 73 rides both look about par for their overall records.
Mayor Of MagheraKTB Fit 47/100
Mayor Of Maghera is a modest performer who has shown little at this track in three runs. Steps up in trip for the first time today and is now tried in first-time headgear. Trainer and jockey both have modest records here.
Ibn AltheebKTB Fit 47/100
Ibn Altheeb is a modest performer who has been largely consistent this year without winning. Drops back in trip with first-time headgear and has a solid yard behind him at this track. Going looks no better than fair on his three runs on good ground.
NatzorKTB Fit 43/100
Natzor is a modest performer who has won twice at this trip but has been out of form for some time with recent efforts well below best. First time headgear is now tried and the yard has a modest record here though the jockey is more established at the track. Placed on good ground in the past but overall profile suggests he will need to improve to be competitive.
KTB verdict
Tiger stands out as the KTB Selection. A fair performer in solid nick after his latest win, he drops in class with the benefit of Ian Williams’s strong 17% strike rate at Ayr and has already shown he handles both the trip and good ground. The booking of an inexperienced jockey and first run at the track are the only minor concerns in an otherwise positive profile. Main dangers are Mr Lincoln, who brings course placings and good-ground form but faces a stiff draw and trip query, and Geo, who has already won at Ayr and now tries first-time headgear after a string of placed efforts. Phantom Shadow’s course-and-distance record also demands respect, while Dryburgh’s recent placed form makes him another to consider in a race where the steadily-run shape should suit those with a late kick.
KTB Selection Tiger
This is the narrative read of the 6:30 Ayr. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Ayr racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Why is Tiger the selection despite the inexperienced jockey and first run at Ayr?
Tiger is a fair performer in solid nick after a win last time, has already won over today's trip, handles good ground, and benefits from Ian Williams’s 17% strike rate at Ayr with an A/E of 1.42.
What are the main concerns for Mr Lincoln in this race?
Dropping back from 2m1f to 1m2f asks a fresh question and the wide draw in stall 13 is a negative from a trainer and jockey who both have modest strike rates at the track.
How does Geo's course record at Ayr compare to the rest of the field?
Geo has already won once from two runs at Ayr, which is better than most of the field with several runners having no course form on record.
Which horses are making their first appearance at Ayr?
Tiger, Dryburgh, Unchartedterritory, Faeberon, Path To Peace, Draupnir, Ibn Altheeb and Natzor have no course form on record.
How many runners are being fitted with first-time headgear?
Geo, Dryburgh, Pol Roger, Path To Peace, Mayor Of Maghera, Ibn Altheeb and Natzor are all wearing first-time headgear.
18+. Analysis and entertainment only — no guarantee of profit. KTB race previews are published for interest and are not betting advice. Only ever stake what you can comfortably afford to lose, and set your own limits. Free, confidential help: the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133 (GamCare.org.uk); in Ireland, the GamblingCare.ie helpline on 1800 936 725. Self-exclude at any time via GAMSTOP.
More from Kickthebookies