4:18 Downpatrick
The 4:18 at Downpatrick is a maiden hurdle over 2m5f180y on good ground featuring a field of nine. KTB’s Fit scores are tightly bunched at the top, with the selection I Can Find Em holding a narrow edge on 56, followed closely by Thesilverbridle on 54, Lygon Lad on 51 and Magical Sal on 46. The race lacks strong course-and-distance evidence and the pace shape is only tentative, meaning the ability to handle the step up in trip and the application of first-time headgear on a couple of runners will be key factors.
How the race shapes up
With the pace shape described as tentative on medium confidence and only one confirmed front-runner in That’s It Paddy, the race is likely to be run at a modest gallop. Most of the field, including the top four principals, prefer to be held up and produce their effort late, so the early fractions could be slow with That’s It Paddy and G N Jefferson the only ones to race prominently or on the pace. The key question is whether the race will develop into a test of stamina late on or whether the lack of early pace will play into the hands of those coming from off the pace.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1I Can Find Em KTB Selection56/100Lightly raced with just four career runs and only one in the last year, so the 422-0 form offers limited guidance.
- 2Thesilverbridle54/100Thesilverbridle showed fair promise when winning a bumper on debut last year and followed that with a solid second on hurdling debut over 2m4f.
- 3Lygon Lad51/100Useful performer who has shown steady rather than sparkling form over shorter trips.
- 4Magical Sal46/100Magical Sal has shown some ability at this track with a second and two other respectable finishes from three runs here.
- 5Young Doran46/100Young Doran showed fair promise when runner-up on debut over 2m6½f.
- 6That's It Paddy45/100That's It Paddy has shown very little in three starts, finishing a modest fourth on debut before pulling up and then trailing in last of six.
- 7G N Jefferson44/100Lightly raced and hard to assess with any confidence after three modest runs.
- 8Paymelater41/100Paymelater has shown only modest form on his last two starts and was well beaten when he tried this track earlier in the year.
- 9Oops A Daisy41/100Oops A Daisy has shown very little in three starts to date, finishing seventh or worse each time.
The contenders
I Can Find Em KTB Fit 56/100
I Can Find Em is the KTB selection. Lightly raced with just four career starts and only one in the last year, his form figures of 422-0 offer limited guidance. Gary McGill has an 8% strike rate at Downpatrick from 38 runs with an A/E of 1.33 while the jockey Mr O McGill has a 13% strike rate at the track from 48 rides with an A/E of 1.19. The 5-year-old is usually held up and produces his effort late though that read comes with low confidence from limited evidence. He has had one run on good ground without placing and the trip looks a fresh question after one unsuccessful attempt at this distance with no course form on record.
Thesilverbridle KTB Fit 54/100
Thesilverbridle showed fair promise when winning a bumper on debut last year and followed that with a solid second on hurdling debut over 2m4f. He now steps up in trip as a lightly raced 5-year-old with only three career runs in total. John C McConnell has a 12% strike rate at Downpatrick from 306 runs while Michael Kenneally has a 9% strike rate at the track from 11 rides. Thesilverbridle is usually held up and produces his effort late on limited evidence and has been placed on his only run on good ground without winning. He has no course form on record.
Lygon Lad KTB Fit 51/100
Lygon Lad is a useful performer who has shown steady rather than sparkling form over shorter trips. He steps up in distance today for the first time which asks a fresh question of him while his sole run on good ground brought no reward. Gordon Elliott has an 18% strike rate at Downpatrick from 931 runs and Jack Kennedy has an 18% strike rate at the track from 170 rides. The 6-year-old is usually held up and produces his effort late with medium confidence. He has no course form on record.
Magical Sal KTB Fit 46/100
Magical Sal has shown some ability at this track with a second and two other respectable finishes from three runs here. He placed on his only attempt at today’s trip and arrives on the back of a solid second last time though the recent form figures also include two pulled-ups. First-time headgear is now applied. C A McBratney has an 8% strike rate at Downpatrick from 297 runs and J J Slevin has a 9% strike rate at the track from 146 rides. The 6-year-old is usually held up and produces his effort late with high confidence and has been placed once from five runs on good ground.
The rest of the field
Young DoranKTB Fit 46/100
Young Doran showed fair promise when runner-up on debut over 2m6½f. He now drops back in trip to a distance he has never tried which asks a fresh question of him. P J Rothwell has a 7% strike rate at Downpatrick from 610 runs and the small sample means going suitability remains unknown though he has been placed on his only run on good ground.
That's It PaddyKTB Fit 45/100
That’s It Paddy has shown very little in three starts, finishing a modest fourth on debut before pulling up and then trailing in last of six. The lightly-raced 5-year-old now steps up in trip for the first time which asks a fresh question of him. Ian Patrick Donoghue has a 10% strike rate at Downpatrick from 73 runs. He tends to make the running or race on the pace though that read comes with low confidence from limited evidence.
G N JeffersonKTB Fit 44/100
G N Jefferson is lightly raced and hard to assess with any confidence after three modest runs. He finished ninth of 13 on the only visit to Downpatrick and steps up in trip today wearing first-time headgear. John C McConnell has a 12% strike rate at the track from 306 runs. He usually races handily on or close to the lead with medium confidence and has had three runs on good ground without placing.
PaymelaterKTB Fit 41/100
Paymelater has shown only modest form on his last two starts and was well beaten when he tried this track earlier in the year. S Michael Millar has a 0% strike rate at Downpatrick from 46 runs. The 7-year-old is usually held up and produces his effort late with high confidence, has been placed once from seven runs on good ground and has no win or place from one run here.
Oops A DaisyKTB Fit 41/100
Oops A Daisy has shown very little in three starts to date, finishing seventh or worse each time. She steps up markedly in distance which is a fresh question. John Joseph Hanlon has a 6% strike rate at Downpatrick from 264 runs and the 4-year-old has had two runs on good ground without placing.
KTB verdict
I Can Find Em is the KTB selection in a race where the top four are closely matched on the Fit scores. The selection’s lightly raced profile and the trainer’s positive A/E at Downpatrick give him the edge on balance despite the limited recent evidence. Thesilverbridle brings the best bumper and hurdling form to the table and looks the most obvious danger while Lygon Lad and Magical Sal, the latter now in first-time headgear and with some course placings, cannot be dismissed. The tentative pace may suit those who can come from off the pace in the closing stages.
KTB Selection I Can Find Em
This is the narrative read of the 4:18 Downpatrick. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Downpatrick racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is stepping up in trip for the first time among the principals?
Lygon Lad is stepping up in distance today for the first time.
How many runs has Magical Sal had at Downpatrick and what is his best result there?
Magical Sal has run three times at Downpatrick with a second, seventh and fifth.
Which runner is the only one with a confirmed front-running style?
That’s It Paddy tends to make the running or race on the pace.
What is the trainer’s strike rate at Downpatrick for the selection I Can Find Em?
Gary McGill has an 8% strike rate at Downpatrick from 38 runs.
Which horses are wearing first-time headgear in this race?
Magical Sal and G N Jefferson are both wearing first-time headgear.
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