8:15 Windsor
This Class 6 handicap at Windsor over 1m31y on good to firm ground brings together an eleven-strong field of three-year-olds with fairly limited ability. The KTB Fit Scores reflect a race where no runner stands out markedly, the top five all sitting between 51 and 57, and the remainder some way behind. With several hold-up performers in the line-up and a strong pace expected, the race could be decided by which horse handles the late stages best once the front-runners begin to tire.
How the race shapes up
A strong pace is anticipated with at least two habitual front-runners present, most notably My Old Mate and Landslide. This should set the race up for those racing from off the pace, with the majority of the field – including the selection Fizzy Bear, Karisma's Angel, Creciente and Torbados – all tending to be held up and produce their efforts late. The key question is whether the pace collapses sufficiently in the straight to allow the hold-up horses to pick up the pieces, or whether one of the prominent runners can steal it.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Fizzy Bear KTB Selection57/100Modest performer who has failed to trouble the judge in four starts at this trip.
- 2Landslide55/100Limited performer on his four starts to date and has yet to show any real spark.
- 3Karisma's Angel54/100Karisma's Angel is a limited filly who has shown her best form when placed over 7f on her last two starts.
- 4Creciente51/100Limited horse who has shown just enough to win a weak race this year but has been hit and miss overall.
- 5Torbados51/100Limited performer who has shown little spark in recent runs and now tries headgear for the first time.
- 6My Old Mate51/100Limited performer who showed improvement when winning a similar race here last month.
- 7Ingemar45/100Limited horse who has shown very little in four runs this year and finished a remote third of four last time.
- 8Neat And Tidy42/100Limited horse who has struggled to make an impact in five starts to date.
- 9Bennyworth42/100Limited performer who has shown nothing better than modest form in ten runs this year.
- 10Twilight Baby41/100Twilight Baby has shown little in three starts so far with a best effort of third at Kempton last time.
- 11Mr Jeffrey30/100Mr Jeffrey has shown very little in five runs to date and sits right at the bottom of the limited class ladder on his figures.
The contenders
Fizzy Bear KTB Fit 57/100
Fizzy Bear is a modest performer who has failed to trouble the judge in four starts at this trip. His recent form figures of 5050 underline that he is struggling to make the required improvement as a three-year-old. The George Baker yard operates at a 9% strike rate at Windsor from a large sample of 265 runs, while Benoit de la Sayette is a positive booking with a 23% strike rate and A/E of 1.65 from 65 rides at the track. He is held up and usually produces his effort late, which could be an advantage given the expected strong pace. There are no runs on good to firm ground so he remains unproven on the surface, and he has no previous course form.
Landslide KTB Fit 55/100
Landslide remains a limited performer on his four starts to date and has yet to show any real spark. He steps up markedly in trip today while wearing first-time headgear, both of which pose fresh questions. Oliver Cole has a solid 20% strike rate at Windsor from a small sample of 10 runs although the yard's runners here have been modest of late. Clifford Lee takes the ride and has an 11% strike rate at the track. Landslide tends to make the running or race on the pace, which will place him right in the expected strong gallop. He has had two runs on good to firm without winning or placing and has no previous course form.
Karisma's Angel KTB Fit 54/100
Karisma's Angel is a limited filly who has shown her best form when placed over 7f on her last two starts. She steps up in trip today for the first time since an unsuccessful try at this distance earlier in the year. Ed Walker has a solid 17% strike rate at Windsor from 232 runs and Kieran Shoemark is a capable partner with a 13% strike rate at the track from 293 rides. Usually held up and producing her effort late, she should be suited by the strong pace that is likely. She has been placed once from one run on good to firm though is without a win on the surface, and she has no previous course form.
Creciente KTB Fit 51/100
Creciente is a limited horse who has shown just enough to win a weak race this year but has been hit and miss overall. He has been placed on his only visit to Windsor and possesses a solid record on good to firm with one win from five runs and two placings. He now steps up in trip for the first time while wearing first-time headgear. Rod Millman holds a 10% strike rate at Windsor from a large sample of 803 runs and the booking of Oisin Murphy is a notable positive. Usually held up and producing his effort late with high confidence, he will be looking to benefit if the strong pace collapses.
Torbados KTB Fit 51/100
Torbados is a limited performer who has shown little spark in recent runs and now tries first-time headgear. He has placed once from two starts at Windsor but is 0-2 on good to firm and steps up in trip having failed to trouble the judge over this distance on his only previous attempt. Charles Hills strikes at a solid 14% rate at the track from a large sample of 352 runs though the jockey-trainer combination shows a 10% strike rate and A/E of 0.78 with a negative LSP. Usually held up and producing his effort late with high confidence, he could be well placed if the race falls apart late.
The rest of the field
My Old MateKTB Fit 51/100
My Old Mate is a limited performer who showed improvement when winning a similar race here last month. He acts on good to firm and has already won over this trip, though the yard's modest 5% strike rate at Windsor from 75 runs is a concern. Billy Loughnane takes the ride on a horse with solid course form of one win from three starts. He tends to make the running or race on the pace.
IngemarKTB Fit 45/100
Ingemar is a limited horse who has shown very little in four runs this year and finished a remote third of four last time. First-time headgear is now fitted in a bid to spark some improvement but he has failed to land a blow at this trip on all three previous attempts. Brian Meehan has a 10% strike rate at Windsor from 766 runs while Joe Leavy rides. He is dropping in class.
Neat And TidyKTB Fit 42/100
Neat And Tidy is a limited horse who has struggled to make an impact in five starts to date. The step up to a mile is an unknown and she is drawn wide in stall 11. Richard Hughes has a 10% strike rate at Windsor from 286 runs. She is usually held up.
BennyworthKTB Fit 42/100
Bennyworth is a limited performer who has shown nothing better than modest form in ten runs this year. He has been tried at this trip without success and looks no better on good to firm ground. Jim Boyle's modest record at Windsor from 388 runs adds little encouragement. He is dropping in class and usually held up.
Twilight BabyKTB Fit 41/100
Twilight Baby has shown little in three starts so far with a best effort of third at Kempton last time. The move up to 1m is an unknown and the yard's modest 5% strike-rate at Windsor from 173 runs offers little encouragement. Class looks limited on what has been seen to date. She is dropping in class.
Mr JeffreyKTB Fit 30/100
Mr Jeffrey has shown very little in five runs to date and sits right at the bottom of the limited class ladder on his figures. He was well held on his only previous visit to Windsor and steps up in trip today for a yard that operates at a 7% strike rate here. The booking of Ashley Lewis is a first ride at the track for the jockey.
KTB verdict
Fizzy Bear is the KTB Selection in a race where the standard is modest and several runners are hard to fancy with confidence. His held-up style should be ideally suited to the strong pace that is likely to unfold, and the trainer-jockey combination brings positive figures at the track. The selection will need to show more than he has managed in his four starts at this trip, but he is taken to capitalise if the front-runners go too hard. Main dangers are Creciente, who brings placed course form and a good record on good to firm, and Karisma's Angel, who has shown her best efforts when placed recently and should also relish the late kick on offer.
KTB Selection Fizzy Bear
This is the narrative read of the 8:15 Windsor. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Windsor racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horses are likely to set the strong pace?
My Old Mate and Landslide are the two habitual front-runners in the field.
Why could hold-up horses be favoured in this race?
The pace shape indicates a strong pace is likely that could collapse late, which would favour hold-up horses.
Which runners are making their first attempt at wearing headgear?
Landslide, Creciente, Torbados and Ingemar are all wearing first-time headgear.
Which horse has the best recent course form at Windsor?
My Old Mate has won here from three starts, while Creciente has been placed on his only visit and Torbados has been placed once from two starts.
Which jockey has the strongest strike rate at Windsor in this field?
Benoit de la Sayette has a 23% strike rate at Windsor with an A/E of 1.65 from 65 rides.
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