4:52 Gowran Park
This Irish Stallion Farms EBF Median Auction Maiden over 1m1f100y at Gowran Park on good to firm ground brings together a field of 15 largely unexposed or modestly performing three-year-olds along with a couple of older maidens. The KTB Fit ratings are tightly bunched at the top, headed by Karrygrant on 54, with Believe Again and Blue Orquidea both on 53, underlining a race where progressive maiden form and yard strength will be key. Most runners are unproven on the surface and several step up or down in trip, adding layers of uncertainty in what looks a steadily-run, tactical contest.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape lacks an obvious leader, pointing to a steadily-run affair in which being handy should pay. Several runners, including the selection, prefer to be held up and produce their effort late, while a couple may settle in mid-division or race prominently. The key question is whether those coming from off the pace can pick their way through in a race that may not develop much early speed, making positioning and timing critical.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Karrygrant KTB Selection54/100Karrygrant is a fair 3-year-old with consistent placed form at this level and a solid recent record of 324532.
- 2Believe Again53/100Lightly raced with just three career starts and recent form of 00 so there is very little to go on.
- 3Blue Orquidea53/100Blue Orquidea has shown little in two starts so far, finishing midfield then well beaten.
- 4Jumpingthegun52/100Jumpingthegun is a fair maiden who has shown steady rather than sparkling form in three starts, finishing a respectable fourth over this trip on his penultimate…
- 5Yogini48/100Yogini showed fair promise when second on debut over 1m3½f but was well held in a stronger race last time.
- 6Gliondar48/100Gliondar showed promise when second on debut over a mile.
- 7Storm Petrel47/100Storm Petrel has shown fair form in two starts since a poor debut, finishing third on both occasions.
- 8Socratea47/100Socratea showed little on debut when finishing seventh over a mile.
- 9Xirivella47/100Xirivella showed fair placed form on debut then ran to a similar level when third last time, though the small sample means any progress is hard to gauge.
- 10Rock Of Claremont45/100Lightly raced colt with just two runs behind him and very little to go on.
- 11Highlander Addict43/100Highlander Addict has only six career runs and showed little on his most recent start when finishing eighth.
- 12Lonelyharbourwall42/100Lightly raced with just one run in the last year, so expectations are modest and the form must be treated with caution.
- 13Salamina41/100Salamina is a first-time runner from a yard that operates at a 14% strike rate here from a big sample.
- 14Lord Darragh41/100Lord Darragh showed only modest early promise when sixth on his sole start over a mile.
- 15One Cool County39/100One Cool County showed only modest form when sixth on debut over 1m3½f.
The contenders
Karrygrant KTB Fit 54/100
Karrygrant is a fair 3-year-old boasting a consistent placed record at this level and a solid recent sequence of 324532. He has already tried this trip once without success and now steps up in distance again while wearing first-time headgear. J P Murtagh holds an 18% strike rate at Gowran Park from a big sample and Ben Coen has a 14% strike rate at the track, yet the horse could only finish fifth on his sole run here. He is usually held up and produces his effort late. The selection remains unproven on good to firm.
Believe Again KTB Fit 53/100
Believe Again is lightly raced with just three career starts and recent form of 00, so there is very little to go on. The drop back in trip to 1m1f today asks a fresh question having last run over 1m4f. Seamus G O'Donnell has an 8% strike rate from 64 runs at Gowran Park while James Ryan has a 5% strike rate at the venue. He is usually held up and produces his effort late. The horse remains unproven on good to firm and has no course form on record.
Blue Orquidea KTB Fit 53/100
Blue Orquidea has shown little in two starts so far, finishing midfield then well beaten. She was also down the field on her only run here. Denis Gerard Hogan operates at a modest 5% strike rate at Gowran Park from 351 runs while Alan Casey has a 13% strike rate at the track from a small sample. She typically settles in midfield. The step up in trip remains an unknown and she is unproven on good to firm.
Jumpingthegun KTB Fit 52/100
Jumpingthegun is a fair maiden who has shown steady rather than sparkling form in three starts, finishing a respectable fourth over this trip on his penultimate run. He drops back from 1m4f having looked stretched last time, which could suit him better, though he has already been tried at today's distance without success. Gordon Elliott has an 11% strike rate at Gowran Park from a big sample and he was only fourth when he ran here before. He is usually held up and produces his effort late. The horse remains unproven on good to firm.
Yogini KTB Fit 48/100
Yogini showed fair promise when second on debut over 1m3½f but was well held in a stronger race last time. She now drops back in trip for the first time with first-time headgear applied, which asks a fresh question of her. Donnacha Aidan O'Brien has a solid 15% strike rate at Gowran from 40 runs while Gavin Ryan has a 7% strike rate at the track. She is usually held up and produces her effort late. The horse remains unproven on good to firm and has no course form on record.
The rest of the field
GliondarKTB Fit 48/100
Gliondar showed promise when second on debut over a mile. He steps up in trip today for a yard with a solid 14% strike rate at Gowran from a big sample. With only one run on the board the data confidence remains low and this is very much an unknown quantity. He remains unproven on good to firm.
Storm PetrelKTB Fit 47/100
Storm Petrel has shown fair form in two starts since a poor debut, finishing third on both occasions. The trip looks suitable enough given one run at it already though he has yet to win at the distance. With only three career runs and no course experience the form must be treated with caution. He is usually held up and produces his effort late.
SocrateaKTB Fit 47/100
Socratea showed little on debut when finishing seventh over a mile. Stepping up in trip today asks a fresh question of this lightly-raced 3-year-old. W McCreery holds an 11% strike rate at Gowran Park from 354 runs. He is usually held up and produces his effort late.
XirivellaKTB Fit 47/100
Xirivella showed fair placed form on debut then ran to a similar level when third last time, though the small sample means any progress is hard to gauge. The step up in trip is an unknown and first-time headgear is now added. Noel Meade has a 12% strike rate from 866 runs at Gowran. She is usually held up and produces her effort late.
Rock Of ClaremontKTB Fit 45/100
Rock Of Claremont is a lightly raced colt with just two runs behind him and very little to go on. He showed fair maiden form when third on debut then ran to a similar level when fifth last time, though the small sample means any progress is hard to gauge. First-time headgear is now fitted as he steps up in trip. He usually races handily.
Highlander AddictKTB Fit 43/100
Highlander Addict has only six career runs and showed little on his most recent start when finishing eighth. He drops back in trip to an untried 1m1f today which asks a fresh question of him. Patrick J Flynn operates at a 7% strike rate from 770 runs here. He is usually held up and produces his effort late.
LonelyharbourwallKTB Fit 42/100
Lonelyharbourwall is lightly raced with just one run in the last year, so expectations are modest and the form must be treated with caution. He drops back sharply in trip to 1m1f today having last been seen over 1m7½f, which poses a fresh question. D K Weld has a solid 16% strike rate from over 1,300 runs at Gowran. He typically settles in midfield.
SalaminaKTB Fit 41/100
Salamina is a first-time runner from a yard that operates at a 14% strike rate here from a big sample. The Joseph Patrick O'Brien barn is rarely wasteful with debutants so the market will tell us plenty. With no racecourse form and low data confidence the rest is pure pedigree and sales background.
Lord DarraghKTB Fit 41/100
Lord Darragh showed only modest early promise when sixth on his sole start over a mile. He now steps up in trip to a distance he has never tried, which asks a fresh question of him. The yard has a 0% strike rate from eight runs at Gowran Park. He is usually held up and produces his effort late.
One Cool CountyKTB Fit 39/100
One Cool County showed only modest form when sixth on debut over 1m3½f. The drop back in trip today asks a fresh question of a horse with just one run in the book. P J F Murphy has a 3% strike rate from 75 runs at Gowran Park while data confidence remains low given the small sample.
KTB verdict
Karrygrant is the KTB Selection. A fair 3-year-old with consistent placed form at this level and a solid recent record, he is expected to be suited by the steadily-run nature of the race given his held-up style. The application of first-time headgear and the booking of Ben Coen add to the package for a trainer who strikes at 18% at Gowran Park. Main dangers include the promising debutant Gliondar from the Joseph Patrick O'Brien yard, along with Yogini who showed fair promise on debut before being well held last time, and the lightly raced Xirivella who has posted fair placed form.
KTB Selection Karrygrant
This is the narrative read of the 4:52 Gowran Park. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Gowran Park racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is unproven on good to firm but has the highest KTB Fit Score?
Karrygrant on 54/100.
How many runners are wearing first-time headgear?
Four: Karrygrant, Yogini, Xirivella and Rock Of Claremont.
Which trainer has the strongest strike rate at Gowran Park among those with at least 600 runs?
D K Weld with a 16% strike rate from 1309 runs.
Which horse is stepping up in trip from a debut second over a mile?
Gliondar.
Who has the best jockey strike rate at Gowran Park from the supplied data?
Alan Casey with 13% from 8 rides.
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