5:52 Gowran Park
A 20-runner 1m1f100y handicap at Gowran Park on good to firm ground promises a competitive but modest affair. The KTB Fit scores are tightly bunched across the field, with no standout performer emerging and the top five all rated between 49 and 54. With the pace shape indicating a lack of an obvious leader, the race is expected to develop into a steadily-run, tactical contest where positioning and timing from off the pace could prove decisive.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape lacks a leader and points to a steadily-run, tactical affair in which being handy should pay. Almost every runner in the field is described as held up, usually producing its effort late, so the early fractions are likely to be modest with the race developing in the straight. The key question is which of these late runners can find the clearest run and the necessary burst in a crowded field when the tempo lifts.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Urban War54/100Limited performer who has been out of form for some time and now tries first-time headgear after a string of modest efforts.
- 2Dancing Steve KTB Selection54/100Limited performer who has struggled for form this year and finished eighth of 16 when last seen here over this trip.
- 3Miss Crinshawn53/100Modest performer who has been consistent enough without winning, finishing in the first four on three of her last six starts.
- 4Rockbury Lad51/100Rockbury Lad is a limited performer who has been out of form for some time with a string of poor efforts.
- 5Nibras Rainbow49/100Limited horse who has been in and out of form all season and is now tried in first-time headgear.
- 6Chapel Island49/100Limited performer who has shown only modest form this year and is now dropped in trip with first-time headgear.
- 7Medieval Night48/100Limited performer who has failed to win in 15 starts and showed ordinary form on his two visits to Gowran.
- 8Brewel Hill47/100Brewel Hill is a limited performer whose recent form has been poor.
- 9Invincible Destiny46/100Limited horse who has shown very little in three starts to date.
- 10Thegooseiscooked44/100Limited performer who has won once here from two starts and is 1-5 at today's trip.
- 11Winston's Promise43/100Winston's Promise has shown very little in three starts so far and carries the limited tag.
- 12Walls Cross42/100Limited performer who has shown very little in three starts to date.
- 13Money Shuffler40/100Limited horse who has struggled in seven starts to date and showed no improvement when last seen over 2m.
- 14Nephin Mountain40/100Limited sort who has shown just modest form in 12 runs this year and has failed to place in two starts at this track.
- 15Duchess Anne39/100Limited performer who has shown her best at this track with a second and a sixth from two runs.
- 16Shahada Ace37/100Shahada Ace is a limited performer who has been well beaten in all five runs at Gowran Park and has shown no improvement in six starts this year.
- 17Chou Chou36/100Limited performer who has been out of form this year with two poor runs.
- 18Cleopatra's Needle35/100Limited performer who has been placed a few times this year but has failed to win in 42 starts.
- 19Chavajod34/100Chavajod is a limited performer with a string of poor recent efforts and a career total now up to 50 runs.
- 20Reponse Finale33/100Limited performer who has struggled at Gowran in three runs here without placing.
The contenders
Urban War KTB Fit 54/100
Urban War is a limited performer who has been out of form for some time. He now tries first-time headgear after a string of modest efforts having finished with figures of 32/065. The eight-year-old drops back markedly in trip from 2m1f to 1m1f100y having failed to win in a single previous run at this distance. His trainer John Joseph Hanlon has a modest 5% strike rate at Gowran Park from a large sample that offers no encouragement on its first run here. Gavin Ryan takes the ride with the pair showing a 2/35 record. The horse has been placed five times from five starts on good to firm but remains competitive without winning.
Dancing Steve KTB Fit 54/100
Dancing Steve is the KTB selection. A limited performer, he has struggled for form this year with recent figures of 0-0008 and finished eighth of 16 when last seen here over this trip. He has won at the distance in the past and has shown some competitiveness on good to firm ground, though the application of first-time headgear suggests connections are now reaching for answers. Trainer Adrian McGuinness has an 11% strike rate from 299 runs at Gowran Park. The five-year-old is held up, usually producing its effort late, and is drawn in stall 15. He has one previous run at the course, finishing eighth without placing.
Miss Crinshawn KTB Fit 53/100
Miss Crinshawn is a modest performer who has been consistent enough without winning, finishing in the first four on three of her last six starts with figures of 342437. She has already tried this trip twice without success and is unproven on good to firm ground. Trainer Peter Fahey has a solid 12% strike rate at Gowran from 151 runs while the horse herself showed little here on her only previous visit when finishing seventh. Gary Carroll rides with the pair showing 0/9 record together. The four-year-old is held up, usually producing its effort late, and is drawn in stall 14.
Rockbury Lad KTB Fit 51/100
Rockbury Lad is a limited performer who has been out of form for some time with a string of poor efforts and recent figures of 006079. He has placed once from three runs at Gowran Park, finishing third on one occasion, and steps up in trip today having won at this distance before though his sole run on good to firm ground yielded no placing. The trainer M D O'Callaghan holds a 12% strike rate here from 117 runs while first-time headgear is now applied. Dylan Browne McMonagle takes the ride with the pair showing a 12/51 record together. The seven-year-old is held up, usually producing its effort late, and is drawn in stall 12.
Nibras Rainbow KTB Fit 49/100
Nibras Rainbow is a limited horse who has been in and out of form all season with figures of 013213 and is now tried in first-time headgear. He has won over today's trip but his record at Gowran is poor, having finished 11th on his only start here, and the trainer Paul W Flynn's 4% strike-rate at the track from 157 runs offers little encouragement. Placed three times from five starts on good to firm so the ground is fine. Leigh Roche rides with the pair showing a 6/66 record. The six-year-old is held up, usually producing its effort late, and is drawn in stall 11.
The rest of the field
Chapel IslandKTB Fit 49/100
Chapel Island is a limited performer who has shown only modest form this year with figures of 7-8544 and is now dropped in trip with first-time headgear. Trainer A Oliver's modest 6% strike-rate at Gowran from a big sample offers little encouragement, while the yard has yet to test this one on good to firm ground.
Medieval NightKTB Fit 48/100
Medieval Night is a limited performer who has failed to win in 15 starts and showed ordinary form on his two visits to Gowran with figures of 830476. He steps up in trip today having been placed without winning at this distance previously, while first-time headgear is another unknown and the trainer Denis Gerard Hogan has a modest 5% strike rate at the track.
Brewel HillKTB Fit 47/100
Brewel Hill is a limited performer whose recent form has been poor with figures of 030-50. He has won at this trip and at Gowran Park but the yard's 1% strike rate from 175 runs here is a major negative, though his going form reads well with a win and two places from three starts on good to firm.
Invincible DestinyKTB Fit 46/100
Invincible Destiny is a limited horse who has shown very little in three starts to date with figures of 007. He drops back in trip with first-time headgear and a wide draw in stall 20 to overcome while trainer Mrs John Harrington has an 11% strike rate at Gowran Park from 1035 runs.
ThegooseiscookedKTB Fit 44/100
Thegooseiscooked is a limited performer who has won once here from two starts and is 1-5 at today's trip with figures of 64-003. He drops back in distance after his latest run over 1m2f and now tries headgear for the first time, though trainer Gerard Keane's modest 4% strike rate at Gowran is a negative.
Winston's PromiseKTB Fit 43/100
Winston's Promise has shown very little in three starts so far with figures of 088 and carries the limited tag. Stepping up from 7f to 1m1f poses a fresh question while first-time headgear is now applied and the trainer Liam P Cusack operates at a 7% strike rate from 46 runs at Gowran.
Walls CrossKTB Fit 42/100
Walls Cross is a limited performer who has shown very little in three starts to date with figures of 080. He finished last of ten on his only run here and steps up in trip today while trainer Timothy Doyle's modest record at Gowran offers little encouragement from stall 18.
Money ShufflerKTB Fit 40/100
Money Shuffler is a limited horse who has struggled in seven starts to date with figures of 0680- and showed no improvement when last seen over 2m. He drops back sharply in trip today while wearing headgear for the first time, both of which pose fresh questions, and trainer W M Roper has a modest 5% strike rate from 83 runs at Gowran.
Nephin MountainKTB Fit 40/100
Nephin Mountain is a limited sort who has shown just modest form in 12 runs this year with figures of 840516 and has failed to place in two starts at this track. He steps up in trip today having already won once over this distance from three attempts, though his sole run on good to firm ground brought no joy and trainer Michael Mulvany has a 7% strike rate from 203 runs here.
Duchess AnneKTB Fit 39/100
Duchess Anne is a limited performer who has shown her best at this track with a second and a sixth from two runs and recent figures of 006-42. She has placed once at today's trip but is unproven on good to firm ground while the yard's modest record here adds little confidence.
Shahada AceKTB Fit 37/100
Shahada Ace is a limited performer who has been well beaten in all five runs at Gowran Park and has shown no improvement in six starts this year with figures of 990006. The yard posts a modest 8% strike rate here from a large sample and he remains unproven on good to firm.
Chou ChouKTB Fit 36/100
Chou Chou is a limited performer who has been out of form this year with two poor runs and figures of 179-90. He has placed once from eight starts at Gowran but the trainer's 2% strike rate from 45 runs here offers little encouragement, though he has won twice over this distance in the past and handles good to firm ground.
Cleopatra's NeedleKTB Fit 35/100
Cleopatra's Needle is a limited performer who has been placed a few times this year but has failed to win in 42 starts with figures of 20-229. She drops back from 2m to a trip she has tried seven times without success and was only fourth on her one run here while first-time headgear is tried and the trainer's modest 4% strike rate at Gowran offers little encouragement.
ChavajodKTB Fit 34/100
Chavajod is a limited performer with a string of poor recent efforts and a career total now up to 50 runs with figures of 000-00. He steps up in trip today having achieved little at this distance before, while the wide draw in stall 17 adds another negative and first-time headgear is tried.
Reponse FinaleKTB Fit 33/100
Reponse Finale is a limited performer who has struggled at Gowran in three runs here without placing with figures of 60-084. He steps up markedly in trip today from a recent 6f run and his sole previous try at this distance also failed to produce a win or place while trainer Gavin Cromwell records a 9% strike rate at the track from a large sample.
KTB verdict
This looks a tricky 20-runner handicap with little between many of the runners on the KTB Fit ratings. Dancing Steve is the selection. He has won at the distance in the past, has shown some competitiveness on good to firm ground, and his trainer Adrian McGuinness has a respectable 11% strike rate at Gowran Park. The first-time headgear may help him to rediscover some spark from his held-up run style in what should be a steadily-run race. The main dangers are Miss Crinshawn, who has been consistently placing without winning, and Nibras Rainbow, who has won over the trip and handles the ground, though both have their own question marks at this venue.
KTB Selection Dancing Steve
This is the narrative read of the 5:52 Gowran Park. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Gowran Park racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Why is first-time headgear being widely used in this race?
First-time headgear is applied to Urban War, Dancing Steve, Rockbury Lad, Nibras Rainbow, Chapel Island, Medieval Night, Invincible Destiny, Thegooseiscooked, Winston's Promise, Money Shuffler, Cleopatra's Needle and Chavajod as connections seek to spark improvement from limited performers who have been out of form or inconsistent.
How does the lack of a clear leader affect the race?
The pace shape lacks a leader and is likely to produce a steadily-run, tactical affair where being handy pays, given that almost every horse is held up and produces its effort late.
Which horses have previous winning form at the trip?
Dancing Steve, Rockbury Lad, Nibras Rainbow, Medieval Night, Brewel Hill, Thegooseiscooked, Nephin Mountain, Duchess Anne and Chou Chou have all won over today's distance in the past.
Which trainers have the strongest recent record at Gowran Park in this field?
Peter Fahey has a 12% strike rate from 151 runs, Adrian McGuinness has an 11% strike rate from 299 runs, and Mrs John Harrington has an 11% strike rate from 1035 runs at the track.
Which horses are proven on good to firm ground?
Urban War has been placed five times from five starts on good to firm, Nibras Rainbow has been placed three times from five starts, Brewel Hill has a win and two places from three starts, Chou Chou has a win from one start, and Thegooseiscooked and Duchess Anne's stablemates have shown form on the surface.
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