4:00 Salisbury
This Class 4 Molson Coors Pembroke Novice Stakes over 6f at Salisbury on good to firm ground brings together a field of seven three-year-olds, several with limited experience and others showing only modest form. The KTB Fit Scores are tightly grouped at the top end, with Remi Mae heading the ratings on 58, followed by It's A Mugs Game on 55, Bold Shout on 52 and Annie Sioux on 48. Overall the numbers point to a race where experience and a favourable draw could prove decisive in what looks a steadily-run, tactical affair.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape lacks an obvious leader, pointing to a steadily-run, tactical contest in which being handy is likely to pay. With several runners, including the top two in the market, tending to be held up, the race could develop into a sprint for the line in the final two furlongs. The key question is whether any horse can seize an advantageous position early or whether those coming from off the pace will find enough room to deliver their efforts in a compact field.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Remi Mae KTB Selection58/100Modest performer who has shown some consistency, finishing placed in three of her six starts including at this trip.
- 2It's A Mugs Game55/100It's A Mugs Game has shown very little in two starts to date and remains hard to assess with any confidence.
- 3Bold Shout52/100Bold Shout has shown only modest form in two starts so far, finishing fourth both times including on this track.
- 4Annie Sioux48/100Clive Cox has a solid record at Salisbury and Tom Marquand is equally effective here, so the yard-jockey combination carries plenty of weight.
- 5Kodicall41/100Kodicall has shown fair early promise with a second on debut followed by a respectable fifth last time, though the small sample means the form must be treated c…
- 6Gris De Chine39/100Gris De Chine has shown modest form in four runs this year with a best of third over 5f and now steps up to 6f where he has been placed once.
- 7Just Dreaming33/100Limited performer who has shown little in three runs to date, finishing no better than seventh.
The contenders
Remi Mae KTB Fit 58/100
Remi Mae is a modest performer who has shown some consistency, finishing placed in three of her six starts including at this trip. She has the benefit of a good draw in stall six and connections that know the track well, with both trainer and jockey holding solid strike rates at Salisbury. The going remains an unknown on this lightly-raced profile. Andrew Balding and Oisin Murphy combine with a 19% strike rate from 2608 rides together, though the A/E of 0.93 shows they are broadly running to expectations. Her recent form figures of 2-303D underline a placed effort at this distance, and she is usually held up, producing her effort late. On good to firm she has been competitive without winning in two starts.
It's A Mugs Game KTB Fit 55/100
It's A Mugs Game has shown very little in two starts to date and remains hard to assess with any confidence. The trip increase to 6f is an unknown at this stage while the small sample on good to firm ground also leaves suitability open to question. Trainer Joe Tickle has an 18% strike rate here from 17 runs but jockey Sean Levey is operating below his usual level with an 11% record from 275 rides. Stepping up in class, the three-year-old has form figures of 0-4 and no course form on record. The combination carries limited appeal on the figures shown so far.
Bold Shout KTB Fit 52/100
Bold Shout has shown only modest form in two starts so far, finishing fourth both times including on this track. He drops back to 6f today having been tried over 7f last time, which asks a fresh question of him. The Clive Cox yard posts a solid 14% strike-rate here while Hector Crouch is operating at 19%. With form figures of 44, he has one run on good to firm without placing and has course form that reads fourth on his only visit. Usually held up, he produces his effort late and will need to improve to figure prominently.
Annie Sioux KTB Fit 48/100
Annie Sioux represents the Clive Cox yard, which has a solid 14% strike rate at Salisbury from 471 runs, and Tom Marquand, who is 13% from 305 rides at the track. As a first-time runner the form side is unknown and the data confidence is low, leaving the pedigree and sales background as the main guide. No course or going information is available so both remain untested. By Sioux Nation, whose progeny have a 13% overall win rate from 2781 runners, she steps into a race where the yard-jockey combination carries weight despite the lack of public form.
The rest of the field
KodicallKTB Fit 41/100
Kodicall has shown fair early promise with a second on debut followed by a respectable fifth last time, though the small sample means the form must be treated cautiously. The step up to 6f looks a neutral move given he has already placed once at the trip without winning. Trainer J S Moore has a modest 3% strike rate from 314 runs at Salisbury while jockey Taylor Fisher sits on an 8% record from 26 rides here.
Gris De ChineKTB Fit 39/100
Gris De Chine has shown modest form in four runs this year with a best of third over 5f and now steps up to 6f where he has been placed once. The limited class read matches his ratings and he wears first-time headgear in a bid to find more. Trainer has only one run at Salisbury while the jockey operates at a 6% strike rate here from 97 rides.
Just DreamingKTB Fit 33/100
Just Dreaming is a limited performer who has shown little in three runs to date, finishing no better than seventh. Steps up from 5f to 6f today which asks a fresh question. Trainer has a modest record at the track while the claiming jockey is still seeking a first Salisbury winner from just six rides.
KTB verdict
Remi Mae is the KTB Selection. She has shown consistency by finishing placed in three of her six starts, including at this trip, and benefits from a good draw in stall six along with connections that know Salisbury well. Andrew Balding and Oisin Murphy both hold respectable strike rates at the track, and her held-up style should suit the expected steadily-run race. The main dangers are Annie Sioux, whose yard and jockey combination carries plenty of weight despite the absence of public form, and Bold Shout, who has course experience and drops back to 6f. It's A Mugs Game looks up against it on what he has shown so far.
KTB Selection Remi Mae
This is the narrative read of the 4:00 Salisbury. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Salisbury racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has course experience at Salisbury?
Bold Shout has run once here, finishing fourth.
How many runners are held up in their run style?
Remi Mae, Bold Shout and Gris De Chine are all described as usually held up.
Which trainer has the strongest strike rate at Salisbury in this field?
Joe Tickle has an 18% strike rate at Salisbury from 17 runs.
Who is the only horse wearing headgear?
Gris De Chine is fitted with first-time headgear.
Which horse is stepping up in class?
It's A Mugs Game and Kodicall are both stepping up in class.
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