6:48 Tramore
This 6:48 Tramore Flynn Hotel Group Handicap Hurdle over 2m on good ground brings together a compact but competitive field of six where the KTB Fit ratings are tightly bunched at the top. The principals are headed by Dairy Force on 62, just ahead of Churchwarden on 61, with Palace Boy and Rightfolksplease not far behind on 55 and 54 respectively. First-time headgear is a recurring theme, applied to all six runners, while the overall KTB numbers point to a race where recent form, trip suitability and local trainer statistics will be decisive.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape lacks an obvious leader and confidence is medium that this will be a steadily-run, tactical affair. With every runner in the field described as held up and producing its effort late, the race is likely to develop into a test of timing from off the pace rather than a prominent battle. Being handy in a steadily-run contest should pay according to the shape, and the key question is which of these hold-up performers can produce the strongest late effort once the tempo lifts in the straight.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Dairy Force KTB Selection62/100Smart performer who has run well in defeat on his last three starts and drops back to a trip he has won over before.
- 2Churchwarden61/100Smart performer who won on his only previous run here at Tramore.
- 3Palace Boy55/100Smart performer who has won over this trip in the past but has been out of form for some time with three poor runs this year.
- 4Rightfolksplease54/100Useful performer who arrives in decent nick after a win and a second on his last two completed starts.
- 5Claude53/100Useful performer who has shown some spark on his last two starts after a poor spell.
- 6Kome Dans Un Reve41/100Useful performer who has failed to build on early promise and arrives here on the back of a poor run.
The contenders
Dairy Force KTB Fit 62/100
Dairy Force is a smart performer who has run well in defeat on his last three starts and now drops back to a trip he has won over before. He has placed twice on good ground from five runs though was only fifth when he tried this track previously. First-time headgear is now reached for. Gordon Elliott brings a solid 15% strike-rate at Tramore from a big sample of 502 runs while Danny Gilligan has a 21% strike-rate at the venue from 29 rides, though the pair's overall trainer-jockey combination reads 78/616 (13%) with an A/E of 0.92. The seven-year-old is usually held up and produces its effort late. KTB rates him the top selection with a Fit Score of 62.
Churchwarden KTB Fit 61/100
Churchwarden is a smart performer who won on his only previous run here at Tramore. He has been out of sorts for some time with three pulled-ups and a tailed-off effort on his last four starts, though first-time headgear is now tried. He steps up markedly in trip today having last run over 1m4f. Henry De Bromhead and Darragh O'Keeffe team up with a 152/945 (16%) record and A/E of 0.85. The trainer has a 15% strike-rate at Tramore from 573 runs while the jockey has a 14% strike-rate from 276 rides at the track. The six-year-old is usually held up and produces its effort late. KTB gives him a Fit Score of 61.
Palace Boy KTB Fit 55/100
Palace Boy is a smart performer who has won over this trip in the past but has been out of form for some time with three poor runs this year. He drops back from 2m2f while first-time headgear is also tried. The trainer's modest 3% strike-rate at Tramore from 33 runs adds to the negatives. Keith Donoghue takes the ride with an 11% strike-rate at the venue from 168 rides. The nine-year-old has placed once from four runs on good ground but has no course form on record. He is usually held up though with medium confidence in that run-style. KTB assigns a Fit Score of 55.
Rightfolksplease KTB Fit 54/100
Rightfolksplease is a useful performer who arrives in decent nick after a win and a second on his last two completed starts. He steps up in trip today having already won over this distance in the past, while he also has a solid record on good ground with two wins and five places from eight runs. First-time headgear is now applied on his debut at Tramore where the trainer operates at a 12% strike-rate from 129 runs. Declan Queally and Kevin Healy combine with a 7/30 (23%) record and A/E of 1.27. The eight-year-old is usually held up with medium confidence. KTB rates him with a Fit Score of 54.
The rest of the field
ClaudeKTB Fit 53/100
Claude is a useful performer who has shown some spark on his last two starts after a poor spell. He drops back to a trip he has won over and has a solid record on good ground with one win and three places from six runs. First-time headgear is tried today while both trainer and jockey have very limited data at Tramore. The five-year-old is usually held up with high confidence and KTB gives him a Fit Score of 53.
Kome Dans Un ReveKTB Fit 41/100
Kome Dans Un Reve is a useful performer who has failed to build on early promise and arrives here on the back of a poor run. He has course experience but showed little when seventh over further here last time and drops back to 2m today having failed to make the frame in three previous attempts at the trip. The six-year-old is unproven on good ground and is usually held up with high confidence. KTB rates him with a Fit Score of 41.
KTB verdict
Dairy Force looks the most solid option in a race where several have questions to answer. The selection has run well in defeat on his last three starts, drops back to a winning trip, and is supported by Gordon Elliott's respectable local record and Danny Gilligan's strong Tramore strike-rate. First-time headgear may sharpen him further. Churchwarden is the obvious danger given his previous course success, though recent form is a major concern. Rightfolksplease enters in good heart and has the best recent completed form of the principals, while Palace Boy and the remainder of the field face stiff tasks on current form and trainer statistics.
KTB Selection Dairy Force
This is the narrative read of the 6:48 Tramore. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Tramore racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is first-time headgear being applied to?
All six runners are wearing first-time headgear.
How many previous runs has Churchwarden had at Tramore?
Churchwarden has had one previous run at Tramore, which he won.
What is Gordon Elliott's strike-rate at Tramore?
Gordon Elliott has a 15% strike-rate at Tramore from 502 runs with an A/E of 0.83.
Which runner has the strongest recent completed form?
Rightfolksplease arrives off a win and a second on his last two completed starts.
What is the pace shape for this race?
Lacks a leader with medium confidence – likely a steadily-run, tactical affair where being handy pays.
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