7:18 Tramore
This 7:18 Tramore contest is a WTW Willis Rated Novice Hurdle over 2m4f100y on good ground, featuring a compact but competitive field of seven. The KTB Fit scores highlight a clear top four with Holy Joe heading the list on 71, followed by Mr Master Mac on 65, Master Haku on 60 and Lureka Du Noyer on 59, while the remainder sit between 58 and 44. With several smart performers in the line-up and a genuinely-run pace expected, the race promises to test class, stamina and tactical positioning over a trip that suits many of the principals.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is genuinely run with high confidence, featuring a front-runner likely to be pressed by several handy types. Holy Joe is expected to make the running or race prominently, with Master Haku and Lureka Du Noyer also likely to race handily on or close to the lead. This sets up a fair test where those held up, such as Mr Master Mac, Early Dawning, Butch Coolidge and Siege Of Carthage, will need to time their efforts late. The key question is whether the prominent runners can dictate matters or if the race will fall to a strong finisher from off the pace.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Holy Joe KTB Selection71/100Smart performer who has won both starts this season and looks to have more to come.
- 2Mr Master Mac65/100High-class performer with strong recent form including a win and two placed efforts from just six runs.
- 3Master Haku60/100Smart performer with a solid recent record that includes two wins and a second from his last four starts.
- 4Lureka Du Noyer59/100Smart performer who has shown strong form this season with a win and a second from his last two starts.
- 5Early Dawning58/100Early Dawning has won both starts this year after a promising debut third and looks to have more to offer.
- 6Butch Coolidge58/100Butch Coolidge is a useful sort who won on his only previous start at Tramore.
- 7Siege Of Carthage44/100Siege Of Carthage showed useful improvement when winning over this trip on good ground at this track last time.
The contenders
Holy Joe KTB Fit 71/100
Holy Joe arrives with a KTB Fit of 71 and is the clear selection. This smart performer has won both starts this season and looks to have more to come. He has already scored over today's trip and is two from two on good ground. Gordon Elliott's solid 15% strike-rate at Tramore adds further confidence, while Danny Gilligan's 21% strike-rate at the track from 29 rides is another plus. As a front-runner who tends to make the running or race on the pace, he is ideally placed to take advantage of the genuinely-run pace shape.
Mr Master Mac KTB Fit 65/100
Mr Master Mac is rated a strong second on KTB Fit with a score of 65. A high-class performer boasting strong recent form that includes a win and two placed efforts from just six runs. He has placed on his only previous run here at Tramore and now drops back from 3m to a trip where he has already shown his ability. Mark Fahey's 13% strike-rate at the track from 47 runs is respectable, and the 7lb claimer Thomas O'Connor is aboard. Usually held up and producing his effort late with high confidence, he will be looking to come from off the pace in what is set to be a genuinely-run affair.
Master Haku KTB Fit 60/100
Master Haku holds a KTB Fit of 60 and enters calculations as a smart performer with a solid recent record that includes two wins and a second from his last four starts. He has already won at this trip and on this ground, while Gordon Elliott's 15% strike-rate at Tramore from a large sample of 502 runs adds further confidence. Sam Ewing takes the ride with a 14% strike-rate at the venue. Usually racing prominently on or close to the lead, he should be involved in the early battle in a race with a genuinely-run pace shape.
Lureka Du Noyer KTB Fit 59/100
Lureka Du Noyer is next in on a KTB Fit of 59. This smart performer has shown strong form this season with a win and a second from his last two starts. He steps up in trip today which asks a fresh question while first-time headgear is also applied. Henry De Bromhead holds a solid 15% strike-rate at Tramore from a large sample of 573 runs, and Darragh O'Keeffe partners him with a 14% strike-rate at the track. Usually racing handily on or close to the lead, he will be prominent in a genuinely-run contest.
The rest of the field
Early DawningKTB Fit 58/100
Early Dawning carries a KTB Fit of 58. He has won both starts this year after a promising debut third and looks to have more to offer. The 5-year-old has already shown he handles this trip and this ground, while Willie Mullins is operating at a 30% strike-rate at Tramore from a big sample of 683 runs. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he will be aiming to come from off the pace.
Butch CoolidgeKTB Fit 58/100
Butch Coolidge is rated 58 on KTB Fit. A useful sort who won on his only previous start at Tramore. He has a solid 11% strike-rate trainer at the track and showed his only win on this going came from five runs. Dropping back in trip today while sporting first-time headgear asks a fresh question. Usually held up with high confidence, he will look to produce his effort late.
Siege Of CarthageKTB Fit 44/100
Siege Of Carthage has a KTB Fit of 44. He showed useful improvement when winning over this trip on good ground at this track last time. He then pulled up quickly on his latest start so that form needs treating with caution. The yard has a 0% strike-rate from five runs here at Tramore. Usually held up, he will need to bounce back from that latest effort.
KTB verdict
Holy Joe stands out as the KTB Selection with a Fit score of 71. He has won both starts this season, has already scored over today's trip, and is two from two on good ground, while the trainer's solid record at Tramore adds layers of confidence. As the expected front-runner in a genuinely-run race, he is well positioned to control proceedings. His main dangers are Mr Master Mac, who drops back to a suitable trip with strong recent form, and Master Haku, who brings a good recent record and prominent running style, with Lureka Du Noyer also capable of featuring if the headgear works.
KTB Selection Holy Joe
This is the narrative read of the 7:18 Tramore. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Tramore racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has already won over today's exact trip?
Holy Joe has already scored over today's trip, as has Master Haku and Siege Of Carthage.
How does the expected pace shape influence the principals?
The genuinely-run pace with a front-runner likely to be pressed by several handy types favours Holy Joe's front-running style, while Master Haku and Lureka Du Noyer are also prominent runners, leaving the held-up horses such as Mr Master Mac and Early Dawning to come from off the pace.
Which trainer has the strongest strike-rate at Tramore in this race?
W P Mullins has a 30% strike-rate at Tramore from 683 runs with Early Dawning, while Gordon Elliott has 15% from 502 runs.
What fresh questions are being asked of Lureka Du Noyer and Butch Coolidge?
Lureka Du Noyer steps up in trip with first-time headgear applied, while Butch Coolidge drops back in trip and also sports first-time headgear.
Which horse needs its latest run treated with caution?
Siege Of Carthage pulled up quickly on his latest start after winning over this trip on good ground at this track last time, so that form needs treating with caution.
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