3:42 Newbury
This Class 2 Darley EBF Novice Stakes over 7f at Newbury on good to firm ground features a field of 13 two-year-olds, many of them newcomers. The KTB Fit Scores are tightly bunched, with Mosheer heading the numbers on 59, followed by a cluster on 52 and 50. With the race lacking an obvious leader, the KTB numbers point to a steadily-run, tactical contest where experience and connections will be key.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape lacks a leader and confidence is low, suggesting a steadily-run affair in which being handy should pay. Several runners are noted as usually held up and producing their effort late, including Red Tail, Mister Whippy and Another Encore. The key question is whether the lack of an obvious front-runner will allow those with early pace or tactical speed to gain an advantage in what could become a race decided by positioning and timing.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Mosheer KTB Selection59/100Mosheer is a newcomer from a yard that operates at a solid 21% strike rate at Newbury.
- 2Lots Road52/100Ralph Beckett is a strong trainer at Newbury with a solid 12% strike-rate from nearly 600 runs.
- 3Red Tail52/100Red Tail showed promise when second on debut over 6f.
- 4Gambling Man52/100Gambling Man showed fair form when finishing fourth on debut over 6f here.
- 5Gallego50/100Gallego is a debutant with low data confidence so the assessment rests mainly on pedigree and connections.
- 6San Jose47/100San Jose is a newcomer from a yard that operates at a modest 8% strike rate here over a huge sample.
- 7Diamondise47/100Diamondise is a newcomer whose assessment rests entirely on pedigree and sales background plus the yard's modest record at this track.
- 8Mister Whippy45/100Mister Whippy showed fair form when fourth on debut over this trip.
- 9Maktoo45/100Maktoo is a newcomer from a yard that operates at an 8% strike rate from 491 runs at Newbury.
- 10Mr Montgomery45/100Mr Montgomery is a newcomer from the Ollie Sangster yard, which has an 8% strike rate from 40 runs at Newbury.
- 11Saint Mungo44/100Saint Mungo is a newcomer from a yard that has an 8% strike rate at Newbury from 469 runs.
- 12Silent Force42/100Silent Force is a newcomer from a yard that operates at an 11% strike rate at Newbury.
- 13Another Encore41/100Lightly raced with just two runs and recent form of 05, so this remains very much unknown territory.
The contenders
Mosheer KTB Fit 59/100
Mosheer heads the KTB Fit Scores on 59 and is the selection. This newcomer represents Owen Burrows, who has a 21% strike rate at Newbury from 99 runs with an A/E of 1.13. The stable has been in good form with its juveniles this season and the booking of Callum Rodriguez is a positive, with the jockey boasting a 26% strike rate at the track from 23 rides and an A/E of 1.65. By New Bay, who has a 14% overall win rate from 3845 runners, Mosheer has no course win on record and his chance rests on sales price and pedigree in the absence of racecourse evidence.
Lots Road KTB Fit 52/100
Lots Road is rated 52 on KTB Fit. From the Ralph Beckett yard, which has a 12% strike rate at Newbury from 598 runs with an A/E of 0.93, this debutant is by Too Darn Hot out of a useful mare who won over 7f as a 2-year-old, with a half-brother who scored at this trip. The trainer and jockey combination shows 20% from 935 runs with an A/E of 0.96. Hector Crouch has an 11% strike rate at the track from 202 rides with an A/E of 1. By Too Darn Hot, who has a 14% overall win rate from 2407 runners, the colt has no course win on record but the wide draw in stall 13 is a negative on debut.
Red Tail KTB Fit 52/100
Red Tail is rated 52 on KTB Fit and has shown promise with form figures of 2. He finished second on debut over 6f and now steps up to 7f for the first time, which asks a fresh question. Usually held up and producing his effort late according to limited evidence, he has been placed once from one run on good to firm. From the Richard Hannon stable, which has an 11% strike rate at Newbury from 1228 runs with an A/E of 0.91, he is stepping up in class. Seamus Cronin has a 14% strike rate at the track from 14 rides with an A/E of 1.01 and there is no course form on record.
Gambling Man KTB Fit 52/100
Gambling Man is rated 52 on KTB Fit with form figures of 4. He showed fair form when finishing fourth on debut over 6f here at Newbury and now steps up to 7f, which asks a fresh question. He has been placed once from one run on good to firm though the small sample means his effectiveness on the surface remains unknown. From the Amanda Perrett yard, which has an 8% strike rate at Newbury from 477 runs with an A/E of 0.82, the trainer and jockey combination shows 17% from 66 runs with an A/E of 1.34. Rob Hornby has an 8% strike rate at the track from 306 rides with an A/E of 0.95 and the colt ran fourth here on his sole start.
Gallego KTB Fit 50/100
Gallego is rated 50 on KTB Fit. This debutant has low data confidence so the assessment rests mainly on pedigree and connections. From the Hughie Morrison stable, which has a 9% strike rate at Newbury from 627 runs with an A/E of 0.92, the trainer and jockey combination shows 8% from 65 runs with an A/E of 0.64. Pat Dobbs takes the ride with a 9% strike rate at the track from 636 rides and an A/E of 0.9. By Havana Gold, who has a 9% overall win rate from 5206 runners, Gallego has no course win on record.
The rest of the field
San JoseKTB Fit 47/100
San Jose is rated 47 on KTB Fit. This newcomer is from a yard with a modest 8% strike rate at Newbury from 1203 runs with an A/E of 0.85. He cost 75,000 gns as a yearling and is out of a dam who produced two useful winners though the immediate family has produced little at two. Tom Marquand has a solid 15% strike rate at the track from 514 rides with an A/E of 1.05. By Blackbeard, who has a 12% overall win rate from 81 runners, he has no course win on record and remains very much an unknown quantity with no racecourse evidence.
DiamondiseKTB Fit 47/100
Diamondise is rated 47 on KTB Fit. This newcomer has an assessment that rests entirely on pedigree, sales background and the yard's modest record at the track. William Muir and Chris Grassick have a 5% strike rate at Newbury from 100 runs with an A/E of 0.57. Marco Ghiani takes the ride with a 15% strike rate at the track from 48 rides and an A/E of 1.27. By Space Traveller, who has a 3% overall win rate from 60 runners, the colt has no course win on record and no racecourse experience.
Mister WhippyKTB Fit 45/100
Mister Whippy is rated 45 on KTB Fit with form figures of 4. He showed fair form when fourth on debut over this trip though the small sample makes his true level hard to pin down and the going remains an unknown after one run on good to firm with no win or place. Usually held up and producing his effort late according to limited evidence, he is stepping up in class. Ed Walker has a solid 12% strike rate at Newbury from 361 runs with an A/E of 0.91 while George Downing has a 3% strike rate at the track from 64 rides with an A/E of 0.5. There is no course form on record.
MaktooKTB Fit 45/100
Maktoo is rated 45 on KTB Fit. This newcomer is from a yard with an 8% strike rate at Newbury from 491 runs with an A/E of 0.79. With low data confidence and no racecourse form the assessment rests on pedigree and sales background. By Too Darn Hot, who has a 14% overall win rate from 2407 runners, connections will hope the good to firm ground suits from stall 11. David Probert has a 9% strike rate at the track from 552 rides with an A/E of 0.87 and there is no course win on record.
Mr MontgomeryKTB Fit 45/100
Mr Montgomery is rated 45 on KTB Fit. This newcomer is from the Ollie Sangster yard, which has an 8% strike rate at Newbury from 40 runs with an A/E of 0.65. With low data confidence and no racecourse form connections will hope the colt can show something on debut. By Coulsty, who has a 9% overall win rate from 1381 runners, Daniel Muscutt has a 9% strike rate at the track from 103 rides with an A/E of 1.03 and there is no course win on record.
Saint MungoKTB Fit 44/100
Saint Mungo is rated 44 on KTB Fit. This newcomer is from a yard with an 8% strike rate at Newbury from 469 runs with an A/E of 0.84. With low data confidence the assessment rests mainly on pedigree and sales background. By Gleneagles, who has an 11% overall win rate from 4657 runners, connections will hope the colt shows enough on debut to build from. Charles Bishop has a 7% strike rate at the track from 409 rides with an A/E of 0.81 and there is no course win on record.
Silent ForceKTB Fit 42/100
Silent Force is rated 42 on KTB Fit. This newcomer is from a yard with an 11% strike rate at Newbury from 927 runs with an A/E of 0.88. The jockey has a modest 2% record at the track from 65 rides with an A/E of 0.15. With low data confidence the assessment rests entirely on the limited sales and pedigree information. By No Nay Never, who has a 12% overall win rate from 6697 runners, there is no course win on record.
Another EncoreKTB Fit 41/100
Another Encore is rated 41 on KTB Fit with form figures of 05. Lightly raced with just two runs this remains very much unknown territory. The yard has a modest 5% strike rate at Newbury from 56 runs with an A/E of 0.44 while Saffie Osborne has a 7% strike rate from 97 rides at the track with an A/E of 0.74. The trip looks no better than fair on the one attempt so far and the small sample means going suitability is still untested after one run on good to firm with no win or place. Usually held up and producing his effort late according to limited evidence, there is no course form on record.
KTB verdict
Mosheer is the KTB Selection. A newcomer from a yard operating at a solid 21% strike rate at Newbury, the Owen Burrows stable has been in good form with its juveniles this season and the booking of Callum Rodriguez adds further appeal. His chance rests on sales price and pedigree given the absence of racecourse evidence. The main dangers are Lots Road, who brings strong trainer and pedigree credentials despite the wide draw, and Red Tail, who showed promise when second on debut though stepping up in trip and class asks a fresh question. Gambling Man and Gallego are next in the KTB Fit order and cannot be entirely dismissed in a race that looks tactical.
KTB Selection Mosheer
This is the narrative read of the 3:42 Newbury. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Newbury racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the highest KTB Fit Score and why is it the selection?
Mosheer has the highest KTB Fit Score on 59/100 and is the selection as a newcomer from Owen Burrows who has a 21% strike rate at Newbury, with the stable in good form with juveniles and Callum Rodriguez a positive booking.
How does the lack of a leader affect the expected race shape?
The pace shape lacks a leader with low confidence, pointing to a steadily-run, tactical affair where being handy pays.
Which runners are noted as usually held up?
Red Tail, Mister Whippy and Another Encore are noted as usually held up and producing their effort late according to limited evidence with low confidence.
What is the trainer strike rate at Newbury for the yard of the selection?
Owen Burrows has a 21% strike rate at Newbury from 99 runs with an A/E of 1.13.
Which horse has course form at Newbury?
Gambling Man has course form, having finished fourth on debut over 6f here.
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