1:50 Dundalk
This Irish EBF Auction Series Fillies Maiden at Dundalk over six furlongs on standard ground brings together a field of fourteen two-year-olds, the majority of whom have limited experience or are making their debut. The KTB Fit ratings point to a race where progressive maiden form and yard trends at the track will matter, with the top five separated by a relatively narrow margin on the numbers. A key unknown for several is how they will handle the surface and the drop or step in trip, while the pace shape suggests an uncontested lead could prove decisive.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is a lone leader with high confidence, indicating one clear front-runner is likely to get an easy time of it up front with little to apply pressure. Tosca No Candis is the most obvious candidate to take up that role from draw six, given her tendency to make the running or race prominently. The race therefore poses the question of whether any of the hold-up performers, such as Ana Morello, Crayons In The Sky or the headgear-wearing Hip Hop Chrissy, can close effectively enough to reel in an uncontested leader on this surface.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Tosca No Candis KTB Selection59/100Tosca No Candis has shown consistent form in three starts so far, finishing fifth each time, and is rated a useful performer on that evidence.
- 2Mount Pinatubo56/100Mount Pinatubo is a newcomer with no racecourse experience.
- 3Ana Morello54/100Ana Morello showed only modest form when finishing sixth on debut over 7f.
- 4Crayons In The Sky50/100Crayons In The Sky showed promise when second on debut then ran creditably to finish fourth next time, both starts over this trip.
- 5Step In Style49/100Step In Style is a newcomer with no racecourse form to go on.
- 6Outside Sun48/100Outside Sun has only one run on the board and showed nothing of note at this trip.
- 7Lady's Court48/100Lady's Court is a newcomer with no racecourse form to go on.
- 8Hip Hop Chrissy48/100Hip Hop Chrissy has shown fair placed form in two starts over the minimum trip and now steps up to 6f for the first time while wearing headgear.
- 9Moyanna Castle47/100Moyanna Castle is a newcomer with no racecourse experience.
- 10Starlit47/100Starlit showed only modest pace when finishing sixth on debut over this trip at Dundalk.
- 11Scarlet Dream46/100Scarlet Dream is a newcomer with no racecourse experience.
- 12Rathbran Lady45/100Rathbran Lady has only one run to her name so the form is impossible to weigh up with any confidence.
- 13Cloughleagh Bridge45/100Modest performer who has shown ordinary form in three starts so far.
- 14Sadie Rose42/100Sadie Rose is a newcomer with no racecourse form to go on and the yard has failed to score in 12 attempts at Dundalk.
The contenders
Tosca No Candis KTB Fit 59/100
Tosca No Candis has shown consistent form in three starts so far, finishing fifth each time, and is rated a useful performer on that evidence. She drops back from seven and a half furlongs to an untried six furlongs which poses a fresh question while the going remains unknown given the small sample. The trainer Robson De Aguiar has a solid 23% strike rate at Dundalk from 52 runs, though jockey Donagh O'Connor records a more modest 9% from 934 rides here. With her front-running style she is ideally placed to take advantage of the projected lone-leader pace shape from a favourable draw in six. The KTB Fit score of 59 marks her out as the highest-rated in the field and the clear selection.
Mount Pinatubo KTB Fit 56/100
Mount Pinatubo is a newcomer with no racecourse experience. The trainer has a strong 25% strike rate at Dundalk from a small sample of 12 runs, while the jockey's 10% strike rate from 834 rides is more modest. With no going or course data available the picture remains tentative and relies on pedigree and sales information. The KTB Fit of 56 places her second in the ratings, yet the complete lack of raced experience makes her hard to assess with any confidence in what looks a competitive heat.
Ana Morello KTB Fit 54/100
Ana Morello showed only modest form when finishing sixth on debut over seven furlongs. She now drops back to six furlongs for the first time which asks a fresh question. The trainer holds a 10% strike rate at Dundalk from 71 runs while the jockey has no recorded rides at the track. Her held-up run-style, albeit with limited evidence, means she will need the race to fall right if the leader is allowed an easy time of it. The KTB Fit score of 54 keeps her in the conversation but she remains short of solid claims on what she has shown so far.
Crayons In The Sky KTB Fit 50/100
Crayons In The Sky showed promise when second on debut then ran creditably to finish fourth next time, both starts over this trip. The yard holds a solid 22% strike rate at Dundalk from 140 runs while the jockey has a 12% record from 516 rides here. With only two career runs the form has to be treated with caution and she is unproven on standard ground. Her held-up style should see her come from off the pace, which may not be ideal given the projected uncontested lead up front. The KTB Fit of 50 leaves her just outside the top three in the ratings.
Step In Style KTB Fit 49/100
Step In Style is a newcomer with no racecourse form to go on. The trainer has a modest 6% strike rate at Dundalk from a large sample of 639 runs, while the 5lb-claiming jockey has a solid 10% record at the track from 146 rides. Her pedigree by Bayside Boy carries a 24% overall win rate from 66 runners which offers some hope on debut. The KTB Fit score of 49 places her fifth among the principals, yet the combination of inexperience and a modest yard record at the venue makes this a watching brief.
The rest of the field
Outside SunKTB Fit 48/100
Outside Sun has only one run on the board and showed nothing of note at this trip. The yard has no established record at Dundalk while the 5 lb claimer has a modest 7% strike rate from 205 rides here. With such a small sample everything remains guesswork and the KTB Fit of 48 reflects limited expectations.
Lady's CourtKTB Fit 48/100
Lady's Court is a newcomer with no racecourse form to go on. The pedigree and sales background offer the only clues here, while the yard's solid 10% strike-rate at Dundalk from 466 runs gives some encouragement. Hayes has a modest 9% record at the track from over 2400 rides and the KTB Fit of 48 suggests she is best watched on debut.
Hip Hop ChrissyKTB Fit 48/100
Hip Hop Chrissy has shown fair placed form in two starts over the minimum trip and now steps up to 6f for the first time while wearing first-time headgear. The yard holds a solid 19% strike rate at Dundalk from 134 runs. Both the trainer and jockey records at the track are established, though the jockey's 10% strike rate from 614 rides is modest, and with only two career runs overall this remains a low-confidence read with a KTB Fit of 48.
Moyanna CastleKTB Fit 47/100
Moyanna Castle is a newcomer with no racecourse experience. The jockey has a modest 5% strike rate from over a thousand rides at Dundalk. Data confidence is low so the assessment relies mainly on pedigree and the KTB Fit of 47 indicates modest expectations.
StarlitKTB Fit 47/100
Starlit showed only modest pace when finishing sixth on debut over this trip at Dundalk. The yard has an 8% strike rate here from 66 runs while Shane Foley sits on an 11% record from more than 2,000 rides at the track. With just one run on the board the form is hard to weigh up and the KTB Fit of 47 reflects that uncertainty.
Scarlet DreamKTB Fit 46/100
Scarlet Dream is a newcomer with no racecourse experience. The yard has a solid 10% strike-rate at Dundalk from a big sample of nearly 2000 runs, while Adam Caffrey posts a respectable 12% strike-rate here from 489 rides. Pedigree and sales background are the only other pointers available, so expectations should remain modest on debut with a KTB Fit of 46.
Rathbran LadyKTB Fit 45/100
Rathbran Lady has only one run to her name so the form is impossible to weigh up with any confidence. She drops back from 7f to 6f today which asks a fresh question of her. The yard and jockey both operate at a low strike rate at Dundalk and the KTB Fit of 45 underlines limited appeal.
Cloughleagh BridgeKTB Fit 45/100
Cloughleagh Bridge is a modest performer who has shown ordinary form in three starts so far. The latest effort was no better than the two runs before it and he is drawn widest of all from stall 12. Trainer and jockey both have solid enough records at Dundalk without setting the place alight and the KTB Fit of 45 matches that modest profile.
Sadie RoseKTB Fit 42/100
Sadie Rose is a newcomer with no racecourse form to go on and the yard has failed to score in 12 attempts at Dundalk. The first-time headgear is an interesting move for a debutant. Jockey Siobhan Rutledge has a solid 7% strike rate from a big sample of rides here yet the KTB Fit of 42 leaves her towards the bottom of the ratings.
KTB verdict
Tosca No Candis is the KTB Selection. She has posted consistent fifth-place finishes in three starts and is rated useful on that evidence, while her front-running style perfectly matches the projected lone-leader pace shape that can be difficult for closers to overcome at Dundalk. The trainer's 23% strike rate at the venue adds further confidence despite the unknown going. Main dangers include Crayons In The Sky, who has shown the best placed form over the trip, and the intriguingly-bred newcomer Mount Pinatubo from a yard in form at the track. Hip Hop Chrissy in first-time headgear and the once-raced Starlit cannot be entirely ruled out if the race sets up for hold-up runners.
KTB Selection Tosca No Candis
This is the narrative read of the 1:50 Dundalk. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Dundalk racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is expected to take the uncontested lead?
Tosca No Candis, whose front-running style and draw in six make her the most likely to set the pace in a race with a lone-leader shape.
How many runners are making their racecourse debut?
Six runners are newcomers: Mount Pinatubo, Step In Style, Lady's Court, Moyanna Castle, Scarlet Dream and Sadie Rose.
Which trainer has the strongest strike rate at Dundalk in this field?
Jack Foley with a 25% strike rate from 12 runs, ahead of Robson De Aguiar on 23% and Stephen Thorne on 22%.
Which horse is dropping back in trip from seven furlongs or further?
Tosca No Candis from seven and a half furlongs, Ana Morello from seven furlongs and Rathbran Lady from seven furlongs.
How many runners are wearing headgear for the first time?
Two: Hip Hop Chrissy and Sadie Rose.
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