2:25 Dundalk
The 2:25 at Dundalk is a 0-0 6f handicap on standard ground featuring a field of 12. With no obvious leader in a race that lacks early pace, the KTB numbers point to a steadily-run, tactical contest where being handy from off the pace could prove decisive. Sir Les Patterson tops the KTB Fit ratings on 63 while the next four principals sit between 59 and 53, suggesting a competitive event with several useful performers in the mix.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape lacks a leader and points to a steadily-run, tactical affair in which being handy should pay. Most of the field, including all five principals, are held-up types who produce their effort late, so the race is likely to develop into a sprint for the line from around the two-furlong pole. The key question is which of these late runners can best negotiate the expected bunching and find the clearest run in a race where positioning will be critical.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Sir Les Patterson KTB Selection63/100Smart performer who has won four times on standard ground from just seven attempts and also has three wins at this trip from 12 starts.
- 2Kerdos59/100Useful performer who has won twice at this trip and showed his best form when landing a 5f handicap here in January before a lesser effort last time.
- 3Valiant Force59/100Useful performer who has won five times on standard ground from 14 starts and also has a previous win at this trip.
- 4Black Forza54/100Useful performer who has shown bits of form at this level but arrives on the back of a modest return over 5f.
- 5I Bid You Ajou53/100Fair performer who has been consistent of late with four runner-up finishes from his last six starts.
- 6Dark Ace51/100Useful performer who arrives in decent form having won twice this year.
- 7Allsortz49/100Fair performer who has been in and out this year with three wins from 13 starts.
- 8Collective Power45/100Collective Power is a fair sort who has been knocking on the door of late with a string of consistent placed efforts.
- 9Fox In Flight45/100Fair performer who has been around the houses this year without winning.
- 10Dandyville43/100Fair sort who has won six times at this trip but arrives on the back of four poor runs and looks out of form.
- 11Cuban Grey41/100Fair performer who has been running respectably without winning lately and now tries first-time headgear.
- 12All The Girls40/100All The Girls is a fair performer who has shown some consistency on standard ground with a win and three places from five starts.
The contenders
Sir Les Patterson KTB Fit 63/100
Sir Les Patterson is a smart performer who has won four times on standard ground from just seven attempts and also has three wins at this trip from 12 starts. He drops back from 6½f today having shown mixed form in recent runs including a win and a fourth. The Stephen Thorne yard holds a solid 22% strike rate at Dundalk from 140 runs while Paddy Harnett is operating at 7% from 319 rides here. He acts particularly well on the surface, having won four from seven on standard, and his held-up run-style fits the shape of a race that looks likely to be steadily-run. Drawn in six, he arrives as the KTB Selection with a Fit rating of 63.
Kerdos KTB Fit 59/100
Kerdos is a useful performer who has won twice at this trip and showed his best form when landing a 5f handicap here in January before a lesser effort last time. He acts on standard ground having won once and placed twice from three starts on the surface, and the first-time headgear is an interesting addition as he is held up and produces his effort late. Trainer Stephen Thorne has a solid 22% strike rate at Dundalk while Jack Kearney is operating at 11% from 476 rides at the track. With a KTB Fit of 59 he is one of the main dangers in a race where being handy from off the pace should pay.
Valiant Force KTB Fit 59/100
Valiant Force is a useful performer who has won five times on standard ground from 14 starts and also has a previous win at this trip. Recent form has been poor with a string of unplaced efforts and he steps up from 5f today for a yard in decent form at this track. He is held up, usually producing his effort late, and this will be his first run at Dundalk. The Robson De Aguiar stable has a 23% strike rate at the venue while Donagh O'Connor operates at 9%. Rated 59 on KTB Fit, his surface prowess keeps him firmly in the picture.
Black Forza KTB Fit 54/100
Black Forza is a useful performer who has shown bits of form at this level but arrives on the back of a modest return over 5f. He steps up to a trip he has won over twice from five attempts, though his record on standard ground is poor from just two starts. First-time headgear is now tried while both trainer M D O'Callaghan and jockey Dylan Browne McMonagle have solid 12% strike rates at Dundalk from large samples. Usually held up with high-confidence run-style data, he is rated 54 on KTB Fit and will need the new headgear to spark improvement on the surface.
I Bid You Ajou KTB Fit 53/100
I Bid You Ajou is a fair performer who has been consistent of late with four runner-up finishes from his last six starts. He has won over today's trip and is placed on standard ground from five runs, though he has never run at Dundalk before. First-time headgear is now tried by a trainer and jockey who both have solid strike rates at the track, Mark Fahey at 11% and Reese Holohan recording 14% from 72 rides. Held up with high confidence, his KTB Fit of 53 reflects his recent placed form and he should be suited by the steadily-run nature of the race.
The rest of the field
Dark AceKTB Fit 51/100
Dark Ace is a useful performer who arrives in decent form having won twice this year. He drops back to 6f having scored four times at the trip from 13 starts, and has a solid record on standard ground with four wins and six places from 12 runs. The Adrian McGuinness yard operates at a 10% strike rate here while Adam Caffrey is slightly better at 12%. Held up, he has a KTB Fit of 51.
AllsortzKTB Fit 49/100
Allsortz is a fair performer who has been in and out this year with three wins from 13 starts. He steps up from 5f to a trip he has won over before and holds a solid record on standard ground with one win and two places from three runs. Both trainer David Marnane and jockey Luke McAteer sit on 10% strike rates at Dundalk from large samples. Rated 49 on KTB Fit and held up.
Collective PowerKTB Fit 45/100
Collective Power is a fair sort who has been knocking on the door of late with a string of consistent placed efforts. He steps up from 5f to a trip he has won over before, and his four wins from 23 runs on standard ground show he handles the surface. Trainer Edward Lynam and jockey Ben Coen both have solid if unspectacular records at Dundalk. He is held up with a KTB Fit of 45.
Fox In FlightKTB Fit 45/100
Fox In Flight is a fair performer who has been around the houses this year without winning. He has a solid record on standard ground and has placed at this trip, though the step up from 5f today asks a fresh question. Trainer David Marnane and jockey Andrew Slattery both have established but modest records at Dundalk. KTB Fit is 45 and he is held up.
DandyvilleKTB Fit 43/100
Dandyville is a fair sort who has won six times at this trip but arrives on the back of four poor runs and looks out of form. The yard has a modest 2% strike-rate at Dundalk while Chris Hayes is operating at 9% here. He goes well on standard ground, has won three from 11 on the surface, and is drawn low. KTB Fit is 43 and he typically settles in midfield.
Cuban GreyKTB Fit 41/100
Cuban Grey is a fair performer who has been running respectably without winning lately and now tries first-time headgear. He steps up from 5f to a trip he has won over before though his overall record on this surface is modest with just three wins from 25 starts. Trainer and jockey both have modest strike rates at Dundalk. He is held up with a KTB Fit of 41.
All The GirlsKTB Fit 40/100
All The Girls is a fair performer who has shown some consistency on standard ground with a win and three places from five starts. She has been below that level on her last three outings and is now fitted with headgear for the first time. The T G McCourt yard has a modest 3% strike-rate here from 109 runs while Wesley Joyce records 6% from 329 rides. KTB Fit is 40 and she is held up.
KTB verdict
Sir Les Patterson is the KTB Selection. A smart performer with four wins from seven starts on standard ground and three victories at this trip, he drops back in distance after mixed recent efforts that included a win and a fourth. The Stephen Thorne yard's 22% strike rate at Dundalk adds to his appeal in a steadily-run race that should suit his held-up style. Main dangers are Kerdos, who showed his best form when winning a 5f handicap here in January and now tries first-time headgear, and Valiant Force, who has five wins on the surface and steps up from 5f for a yard in decent form at the track. Black Forza and I Bid You Ajou, both in first-time headgear and with recent consistency or trip suitability, complete the main threats in what looks a tactical affair.
KTB Selection Sir Les Patterson
This is the narrative read of the 2:25 Dundalk. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Dundalk racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse has the strongest record on standard ground?
Sir Les Patterson with four wins from seven starts on standard.
How many of the principals are making their first start at Dundalk?
Three: Valiant Force, Kerdos and I Bid You Ajou have no course form on record.
What is the trainer strike rate at Dundalk for the yard of the KTB Selection?
22% strike rate at Dundalk from 140 runs.
Which runners are trying first-time headgear?
Kerdos, Black Forza, I Bid You Ajou, Cuban Grey and All The Girls.
Given the pace shape, which run-style is likely to be favoured?
Being handy pays in a steadily-run, tactical affair where no one obviously wants the lead.
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