4:35 Dundalk
The Irish Stallion Farms EBF Red God Handicap at Dundalk brings together a competitive field of 14 for this 1m2f150y contest on standard ground. KTB's Fit scores are tightly bunched at the top, with Apercu heading the ratings on 58, followed by a cluster on 53 and 52 that includes several with recent placed form and headgear firsts. The race features a clear pace advantage for the one horse likely to get an uncontested lead, which sets up an interesting test for the many hold-up performers in the line-up.
How the race shapes up
With the pace shape rated as a lone leader at high confidence, Touch The Moon is expected to bowl along in front with no obvious rival to apply pressure. The remainder of the field, dominated by hold-up types including the top five in the KTB rankings, will be settled towards the rear and asked to deliver late. This uncontested lead could prove difficult for closers to overcome, particularly over the stiff 1m2f150y trip, so the key question is whether any of the held-up runners can bridge the gap in the straight or if the leader will prove hard to peg back.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Apercu KTB Selection58/100Useful performer who has been running well enough in recent starts without quite landing a blow.
- 2Star Harbour53/100Useful performer who has been running to a consistent level without winning lately.
- 3Tribal Star53/100Tribal Star is a fair performer who has been consistent enough on the all-weather with two wins and eight places from 12 starts on standard ground.
- 4Iron Fist53/100Useful performer who arrives in decent form after a placed effort at this trip last time.
- 5Slieve Binnian52/100Fair performer who has won twice on standard ground from just six attempts and has also won at today's trip.
- 6Touch The Moon52/100Fair performer who arrives in decent nick having won and finished second in recent starts.
- 7Genoah52/100Useful performer who has won three times at this trip including on standard ground.
- 8Quatre Bras48/100Fair performer who has been consistent enough without winning for a while.
- 9Steel Cut48/100Steel Cut is a fair sort who has shown consistent placed form at this trip on his most recent completed start before a lesser effort last time.
- 10Crypto Force45/100Crypto Force is a fair performer on his best days but has looked out of sorts in recent starts, finishing well beaten on his last two outings.
- 11Beauparc45/100Beauparc is a fair performer who has been consistent without winning of late, finishing in the first six on all six starts this year.
- 12Cala Bonita45/100Cala Bonita is a fair handicapper who showed her best recent effort when winning at this trip on standard ground last time out.
- 13Follow Me40/100Fair performer who has shown little spark in three starts this year and now tries headgear for the first time.
- 14Nermal39/100Fair performer who has been consistent this year with form figures of 522314 and a win at today's trip from just two attempts.
The contenders
Apercu KTB Fit 58/100
Apercu is a useful performer who has been running well enough in recent starts without quite landing a blow. He steps up in trip today having already won three times at this distance, while the first-time headgear is another positive on a surface he handles. The six-year-old is drawn in stall one and will be held up to produce his effort late. Trainer A Oliver has a 13% strike rate at Dundalk from 751 runs with an A/E of 1.02, while jockey Ronan Whelan posts a 13% strike rate from 1505 rides with an A/E of 0.98. Both have solid records at the track and the combination looks well placed in a race where the pace may not be strong.
Star Harbour KTB Fit 53/100
Star Harbour is a useful performer who has been running to a consistent level without winning lately. The eight-year-old drops back from 1m4f to a trip where he has placed three times from nine starts though he still lacks a victory at the distance. First-time headgear is now tried as he is held up to come from off the pace. Trainer Adrian McGuinness has a 10% strike rate at Dundalk from 1975 runs with an A/E of 0.85, while jockey Declan McDonogh records an 11% strike rate from 74 rides with an A/E of 1.12. Both have solid if unspectacular records at the venue.
Tribal Star KTB Fit 53/100
Tribal Star is a fair performer who has been consistent enough on the all-weather with two wins and eight places from 12 starts on standard ground. He drops back from 1m4f to a trip he has won over before and now tries first-time headgear after a mixed run of form. The five-year-old will be held up to deliver his effort late from stall 11. Trainer Adrian McGuinness has a 10% strike rate at Dundalk from 1975 runs with an A/E of 0.85, while jockey Adam Caffrey posts a 12% strike rate from 489 rides with an A/E of 1.01. The yard's modest record is offset by the jockey's solid figures at the track.
Iron Fist KTB Fit 53/100
Iron Fist is a useful performer who arrives in decent form after a placed effort at this trip last time. This is his first run at Dundalk and he is unproven on standard ground, both of which add an element of uncertainty. The four-year-old is held up to produce his effort late from a favourable draw in stall four. Trainer Mrs John Harrington has an 8% strike rate at Dundalk from 66 runs with an A/E of 0.6, while jockey Shane Foley has an 11% strike rate from 2242 rides with an A/E of 0.85. The jockey's solid record at the venue is a plus even if the yard's figures are modest.
Slieve Binnian KTB Fit 52/100
Slieve Binnian is a fair performer who has won twice on standard ground from just six attempts and has also won at today's trip. Recent form is patchy though and the step up from 1m1f asks a fresh question. The six-year-old will be held up to come with his effort late. Trainer David Marnane has a 10% strike rate at Dundalk from 1262 runs with an A/E of 0.85, while jockey Luke McAteer records a 10% strike rate from 608 rides with an A/E of 0.91. Both operate at a similar level at the track and the horse's surface record remains a strong positive.
The rest of the field
Touch The MoonKTB Fit 52/100
Touch The Moon is a fair performer who arrives in decent nick having won and finished second in recent starts. He drops back to a trip he has already won over, which looks a plus, though he has never raced on standard going and makes his first visit to Dundalk from stall six. The trainer has a 0% strike rate at the track from one run while jockey Chris Hayes has a 9% strike rate from 2412 rides with an A/E of 0.77.
GenoahKTB Fit 52/100
Genoah is a useful performer who has won three times at this trip including on standard ground. Four wins from eight runs on this surface read well but the first visit to Dundalk and wide draw in stall 12 are both unknowns. First-time headgear is another new factor for a horse whose recent form has been in and out; the trainer has a 12% strike rate at Dundalk from 412 runs with an A/E of 0.78 while the jockey records a 5% strike rate from 1121 rides with an A/E of 0.65.
Quatre BrasKTB Fit 48/100
Quatre Bras is a fair performer who has been consistent enough without winning for a while. He steps up in trip today having won twice from four starts at this distance previously and holds a solid record on standard ground with two wins and three places from six runs. The trainer has an 11% strike rate at Dundalk from 260 runs with an A/E of 0.91 while jockey Gavin Ryan posts a 10% strike rate from 614 rides with an A/E of 0.79.
Steel CutKTB Fit 48/100
Steel Cut is a fair sort who has shown consistent placed form at this trip on his most recent completed start before a lesser effort last time. He drops back from 1m5f with first-time headgear now applied from a wide draw in stall 13. Trainer A Oliver holds a solid 13% strike rate from 751 runs at Dundalk with an A/E of 1.02 while jockey Wayne Lordan has an 8% record from 36 rides with an A/E of 1.
Crypto ForceKTB Fit 45/100
Crypto Force is a fair performer on his best days but has looked out of sorts in recent starts, finishing well beaten on his last two outings. He steps up in trip for the first time in a while having placed once at this distance without winning, while first-time headgear is now tried. The trainer holds a 12% strike rate at Dundalk from 412 runs with an A/E of 0.78 and the jockey is 9% from 934 rides with an A/E of 0.86.
BeauparcKTB Fit 45/100
Beauparc is a fair performer who has been consistent without winning of late, finishing in the first six on all six starts this year. He has a solid record on standard ground with two wins and three places from nine runs, while he has also placed three times from eight starts at this trip although he drops back from 1m5f today. First-time headgear is an interesting addition for a yard with a modest 5% strike rate at Dundalk from 37 runs with an A/E of 0.42.
Cala BonitaKTB Fit 45/100
Cala Bonita is a fair handicapper who showed her best recent effort when winning at this trip on standard ground last time out. She has two wins from five runs on the surface and steps back up in distance having already won twice at 1m2f. First-time headgear is now fitted on her first visit to Dundalk where the trainer has a 10% strike rate from 235 runs with an A/E of 1.08 and the jockey records a 6% strike rate from 329 rides with an A/E of 0.72.
Follow MeKTB Fit 40/100
Follow Me is a fair performer who has shown little spark in three starts this year and now tries headgear for the first time. Placed once at this trip but unproven on standard ground and makes his first visit to Dundalk from stall 14. The trainer has an 8% strike rate at the track from 255 runs with an A/E of 0.86 while the jockey records a 12% strike rate from 516 rides with an A/E of 0.81.
NermalKTB Fit 39/100
Nermal is a fair performer who has been consistent this year with form figures of 522314 and a win at today's trip from just two attempts. Drops back from 1m4½f last time which looks a sensible move on the balance of his efforts. The trainer has only four runs at Dundalk so too small a sample to judge while the jockey's modest 7% strike rate from 615 rides with an A/E of 0.77 is well established.
KTB verdict
Apercu is the KTB Selection. He has been running creditably without quite getting his head in front of late and looks well suited by the step up to a trip at which he has already won three times, with the first-time headgear another plus on a surface he handles. The combination of trainer and jockey both having solid records at Dundalk adds to the appeal from a good draw. Main dangers include Star Harbour and Tribal Star, both of whom are consistent on the surface and now also try headgear, while Iron Fist and Slieve Binnian bring strong recent form and surface credentials into the equation.
KTB Selection Apercu
This is the narrative read of the 4:35 Dundalk. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Dundalk racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Why is the pace shape expected to favour the leader?
The pace shape is described as a lone leader with high confidence, meaning one clear front-runner with little to pressure it and likely an uncontested lead that can be hard for closers to peg back.
Which horse is most likely to make the running?
Touch The Moon, whose run-style is front-runner with medium confidence.
How many of the principals are trying first-time headgear?
All five principals—Apercu, Star Harbour, Tribal Star, Iron Fist and Slieve Binnian—are wearing first-time headgear.
Which horse has the best strike rate on standard ground among the principals?
Slieve Binnian, with 4 wins from 6 on standard.
What is the trainer strike rate at Dundalk for the yard of the selection?
13% strike rate at Dundalk with an A/E of 1.02 from 751 runs.
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