3:55 Curragh
A 12-runner Tote Guarantee, Never Beaten By SP Handicap over 1m2f at the Curragh on good ground features a competitive mix of three-year-olds and older horses. The KTB Fit ratings are tightly bunched at the top, with Thyer heading the list on 61, followed closely by Liberation Date on 59 and Admiral Will Brown on 57. Several runners are making their first attempt at the trip or returning to it, while the application of first-time headgear to four horses adds an extra layer of interest to the puzzle.
How the race shapes up
With two or more habitual front-runners in the field the pace shape is likely to be strong, and the confidence in that assessment is high. Admiral Will Brown is expected to make the running from stall 2, with Great Mover also likely to be prominent from a wide draw. This setup suggests the race could collapse late, which would play to the strengths of the hold-up performers, several of whom are among the principals.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Thyer KTB Selection61/100Fair performer who has shown little spark in two runs at this track.
- 2Liberation Date59/100Liberation Date is a fair 3-year-old who has shown consistent placed form at this track, finishing third on one visit and never worse than eighth in four runs h…
- 3Admiral Will Brown57/100Fair performer who won a modest handicap here over 1m4f last time but now drops back to his winning trip of 1m2f.
- 4Mighty Danu52/100Fair sort who showed useful early promise when winning on debut at this track last year but has looked limited in two runs this season.
- 5Youcansaythatagain52/100Has shown fair ability with a win on debut and a respectable seventh here last time.
- 6Storzando51/100Fair performer who has shown steady progress in three starts, finishing a respectable seventh of 14 last time.
- 7Great Mover50/100Fair sort who has run well here without winning, finishing second on one of five visits to the Curragh.
- 8Sonoran49/100Sonoran is a fair performer who has been out of form lately with a string of modest efforts.
- 9Guinelot49/100Modest performer who showed improvement when winning last time out over an extended 1m1f.
- 10Blackjack Hills41/100Modest performer who has won twice on the all-weather but has struggled to match that level on turf lately.
- 11Unterberg40/100Modest performer who has won twice at this trip but has been out of form for some time with five poor efforts after two wins earlier in the year.
- 12Nibras Rainbow36/100Limited performer who has shown bits of form but remains winless in three runs at this track.
The contenders
Thyer KTB Fit 61/100
Thyer is a fair performer who has shown little spark in two previous runs at this track. He drops back from 1m4f to a trip where he is 0-2, though he has won twice on good ground from eight attempts. First-time headgear is now applied and could help him produce a better effort. The trainer holds a solid 17% strike rate at the Curragh from 18 runs, while the jockey has a 6% strike rate here from 703 rides. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he is drawn in stall 6 and comes into this off recent form figures of 00-653. His official rating is not supplied but the KTB Fit of 61 makes him the top-rated in the field.
Liberation Date KTB Fit 59/100
Liberation Date is a fair 3-year-old who has shown consistent placed form at this track, finishing third on one visit and never worse than eighth in four runs here. The trainer holds a strong 30% strike rate at the Curragh from a small but effective sample of 10 runs. Stepping up to 1m2f for the first time asks a fresh question, while the placed effort on good ground from four attempts suggests the surface will be fine. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he is drawn widest in stall 12. Recent form figures read -96836 and the KTB Fit stands at 59.
Admiral Will Brown KTB Fit 57/100
Admiral Will Brown is a fair performer who won a modest handicap here over 1m4f last time but now drops back to his winning trip of 1m2f. He has shown ability on good ground with one win from one attempt. The yard's modest 7% strike rate at the Curragh is actually better than it looks by A/E from 42 runs, while the jockey has a 4% strike rate here from 171 rides. Tending to make the running or race on the pace, he could set a strong gallop from stall 2. He was well held when he tried this track on a previous occasion. Recent form reads 77-719 and the KTB Fit is 57.
Mighty Danu KTB Fit 52/100
Mighty Danu is a fair sort who showed useful early promise when winning on debut at this track last year but has looked limited in two runs this season. He steps up from 7f to 1m2f for the first time today, which asks a fresh question, while first-time headgear is also tried. The trainer has a 7% strike rate at the Curragh from 259 runs and the jockey has a 6% strike rate here from 89 rides. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he is drawn in stall 9. Recent form figures are 17-68 and the KTB Fit is 52.
Youcansaythatagain KTB Fit 52/100
Youcansaythatagain has shown fair ability with a win on debut and a respectable seventh here last time. He drops back in trip having already won at this distance, and the good ground looks ideal given a perfect record from one run on it. The trainer's modest 4% strike rate at the Curragh from 543 runs is a clear negative, while the jockey has a 7% strike rate here from 626 rides. Usually held up and producing his effort late, he is drawn in stall 8. Recent form reads 71 and the KTB Fit is 52.
The rest of the field
StorzandoKTB Fit 51/100
Storzando is a fair performer who has shown steady progress in three starts, finishing a respectable seventh of 14 last time. He steps up to 1m2f for the first time today having previously been well held over the trip, which poses a fresh question. The trainer has a modest 6% strike rate at the Curragh from a large sample of 282 runs. Usually held up, recent form is 637 and the KTB Fit is 51.
Great MoverKTB Fit 50/100
Great Mover is a fair sort who has run well here without winning, finishing second on one of five visits to the Curragh. He steps up from 7f to a trip he has won over before, though his recent form has been patchy and he is drawn wide in stall 11. The trainer operates at an 8% strike rate here from a big sample of 662 runs while the jockey is 0-11 at the track. Tending to make the running or race on the pace, recent form is 663260 and the KTB Fit is 50.
SonoranKTB Fit 49/100
Sonoran is a fair performer who has been out of form lately with a string of modest efforts. He has placed over this trip and on this ground without winning, though first-time headgear is now tried to spark a revival. The Lyons yard has a modest 9% strike rate at the Curragh from a large sample of 1425 runs. Usually held up, recent form reads -03699 and the KTB Fit is 49.
GuinelotKTB Fit 49/100
Guinelot is a modest performer who showed improvement when winning last time out over an extended 1m1f. He steps up in trip again today having already won once at this distance from two attempts. First-time headgear is an unknown and the trainer's modest 8% strike rate at the Curragh from 400 runs offers little encouragement. Usually held up, recent form is 541 and the KTB Fit is 49.
Blackjack HillsKTB Fit 41/100
Blackjack Hills is a modest performer who has won twice on the all-weather but has struggled to match that level on turf lately. He drops back to a trip he has won at before and tries first-time headgear. The trainer's modest 4% strike rate at the Curragh from 90 runs offers little encouragement. Usually held up, recent form is 11-728 and the KTB Fit is 41.
UnterbergKTB Fit 40/100
Unterberg is a modest performer who has won twice at this trip but has been out of form for some time with five poor efforts after two wins earlier in the year. He has never won or placed in three runs at the Curragh and the trainer is 0-14 at the track. Dropping back from 1m4f today, he has been competitive on good ground without winning. Usually held up, recent form is 110880 and the KTB Fit is 40.
Nibras RainbowKTB Fit 36/100
Nibras Rainbow is a limited performer who has shown bits of form but remains winless in three runs at this track. He steps up in trip today having already won over this distance in the past, though first-time headgear is an unknown. The trainer's modest record at the Curragh from 135 runs adds little confidence. Usually held up, recent form is 132139 and the KTB Fit is 36.
KTB verdict
Thyer is the KTB Selection. A fair performer who has shown little spark in two runs at this track, he drops back from 1m4f to a trip where he is 0-2, though he has won twice on good ground from eight attempts and first-time headgear is now applied. The trainer's solid 17% strike rate at the Curragh from 18 runs offers encouragement, and his hold-up style looks well suited to the likely strong pace. Main dangers are Liberation Date, who has shown consistent placed form at the track and whose trainer boasts a 30% strike rate here, and Admiral Will Brown, who won over further here last time and drops back to his winning trip while likely to set the pace from stall 2. Youcansaythatagain and Mighty Danu are others who could feature.
KTB Selection Thyer
This is the narrative read of the 3:55 Curragh. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Curragh racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is making its first start in headgear?
Thyer, Mighty Danu, Sonoran, Guinelot, Blackjack Hills and Nibras Rainbow are all wearing first-time headgear.
How many front-runners are likely to ensure a strong pace?
Two or more habitual front-runners are present, with Admiral Will Brown and Great Mover both tending to make the running or race on the pace.
Which trainer has the strongest strike rate at the Curragh in this race?
Jack Foley has a 30% strike rate at the Curragh from 10 runs with Liberation Date.
Which horse has the best course form at the Curragh?
Liberation Date has run four times here, finishing third, eighth, sixth and fifth for a placed effort and no win.
Who has the highest trainer strike rate at the Curragh among the principals?
Maurice Andrew Ahern has a 17% strike rate at the Curragh from 18 runs with Thyer.
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