4:45 Pontefract
This Listed race over six furlongs at Pontefract on good to firm ground brings together an interesting mix of progressive three-year-olds and more experienced older fillies and mares. With a field of 11 and a strong pace anticipated, the KTB Fit Scores highlight a tight bunch at the top, led by Arabian Dusk on 68, followed closely by Royal Fixation on 64 and America Queen on 63. The race looks set to test stamina late on given the pace shape, with several hold-up performers likely to be waiting for the leaders to come back.
How the race shapes up
A strong pace is expected with at least two habitual front-runners present, including Sing The Blues, Catching The Moon and Miss Nightcap all inclined to go forward. This should set the race up for those racing in mid-division or held up, as the pace could collapse in the final furlong. The key question is whether the prominent and front-running types can dictate matters or if the hold-up performers, several of whom are equipped with first-time headgear, will be able to pick up the pieces late.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Arabian Dusk KTB Selection68/100Useful performer who has shown consistent form without winning this year.
- 2Royal Fixation64/100Smart performer who has already won twice at this trip including on good to firm.
- 3America Queen63/100America Queen is a useful performer who has shown consistent form this year, finishing no worse than fourth in three starts.
- 4Dash Of Azure57/100Useful performer who has been consistent at a similar level without winning lately, finishing second twice from his last four starts.
- 5Magic Basma56/100Useful performer who has run to a solid level on her last four starts and finished a clear second over course and distance on her only previous visit here.
- 6Sing The Blues55/100Useful performer who has won three of his five starts at this trip and looked sharp when landing both starts this year.
- 7Catching The Moon52/100Useful performer who has already shown he handles this trip with a win from three starts.
- 8Brazilian Rose50/100Useful performer who has won six times at this trip but has been out of sorts lately with a string of modest efforts.
- 9Ruby's Angel47/100Fair performer who has shown mixed form this year with a win and a second but also several lesser efforts.
- 10Killavia46/100Fair 3-year-old who has shown his best form when winning a minor event on good to firm at this trip last time.
- 11Miss Nightcap44/100Miss Nightcap is a fair 3-year-old with progressive recent form of 2211 and has already won twice this year.
The contenders
Arabian Dusk KTB Fit 68/100
Arabian Dusk arrives as a useful performer who has shown consistent form without winning this year. She drops back to 6f having scored at the trip before, and first-time headgear is now added after a string of placed efforts. The Simon & Ed Crisford yard holds a strong 30% strike rate at Pontefract from 27 runs, with the trainer and jockey combination showing 60/364 (16%) and an A/E of 0.90. She is held up, usually producing her effort late, and has been placed once from two starts on good to firm. With no previous course form on record, her draw in stall 4 could prove advantageous in a race where late runners are favoured.
Royal Fixation KTB Fit 64/100
Royal Fixation is a smart performer who has already won twice at this trip, including on good to firm. She has solid connections to the course through her yard, with K R Burke recording a 14% strike rate at Pontefract from 351 runs. The trainer and jockey combination stands at 125/778 (16%) with an A/E of 0.90. Usually held up and producing her effort late with high confidence, she now tries first-time headgear which remains the main unknown. She has two wins from five starts on good to firm and no course form on record, yet her 64 KTB Fit Score keeps her firmly in the mix from draw 3.
America Queen KTB Fit 63/100
America Queen is a useful performer who has shown consistent form this year, finishing no worse than fourth in her three starts. She has already won at this trip from four attempts and is well drawn in stall 2, which could be ideal given the expected pace. The Richard Hughes yard has a 20% strike rate at Pontefract from 15 runs, while the trainer and jockey line reads 3/18 (17%) with an A/E of 0.95. Typically settling in midfield, she has been placed once from four starts on good to firm without winning. Her 63 KTB Fit Score underlines her as a major player in a race where her run-style may suit if the leaders go hard.
Dash Of Azure KTB Fit 57/100
Dash Of Azure is a useful performer who has been consistent at a similar level without winning lately, finishing second twice from his last four starts. He drops back to 6f today having been placed at the trip before, though he has never run at Pontefract. Ralph Beckett has a solid 27% strike rate here from 132 runs, with the trainer and jockey combination showing 30/165 (18%) and an A/E of 0.82. Usually held up and producing his effort late with high confidence, he has been placed twice from seven starts on good to firm. His draw in stall 10 is wide but the race shape could still play to his strengths.
Magic Basma KTB Fit 56/100
Magic Basma is a useful performer who has run to a solid level on her last four starts and finished a clear second over course and distance on her only previous visit here. She drops back from 7f today having already won over this trip earlier in her career, though she has yet to score on good to firm ground. Kevin Ryan has an 11% strike rate at the track from 574 runs, while the trainer and jockey combination reads 215/2045 (11%) with an A/E of 0.89. Usually held up and producing her effort late with high confidence, she has been placed once from two starts on good to firm and her course record of one second from one run adds appeal from the wide draw in stall 11.
The rest of the field
Sing The BluesKTB Fit 55/100
Sing The Blues is a useful performer who has won three of his five starts at this trip and looked sharp when landing both starts this year. He acts on good to firm, steps up in class, and the recent form figures of 51P-11 suggest he is progressing, though the trainer has a small sample at the track.
Catching The MoonKTB Fit 52/100
Catching The Moon is a useful performer who has already shown he handles this trip with a win from three starts. He has won on good to firm ground and the yard have a solid 14% strike rate here from 22 runs, yet recent form has been poor and he will need to bounce back sharply from those two defeats.
Brazilian RoseKTB Fit 50/100
Brazilian Rose is a useful performer who has won six times at this trip but has been out of sorts lately with a string of modest efforts. Only one previous run here and no win on good to firm ground in five attempts though she has placed once on it, with first-time headgear now applied and the drop back to 6f looking sensible.
Ruby's AngelKTB Fit 47/100
Ruby's Angel is a fair performer who has shown mixed form this year with a win and a second but also several lesser efforts. She has won on good to firm and at today's trip though the yard's modest 10% strike rate at Pontefract suggests this will not be straightforward, while stepping up in class.
KillaviaKTB Fit 46/100
Killavia is a fair 3-year-old who has shown his best form when winning a minor event on good to firm at this trip last time. He steps back up to 6f having been outpaced over 5f on his most recent start, steps up in class and is making his first visit to Pontefract.
Miss NightcapKTB Fit 44/100
Miss Nightcap is a fair 3-year-old with progressive recent form of 2211 and has already won twice this year. She has shown she handles good to firm ground and has won over today's 6f trip while stepping up in class, though the yard's record here is too small a sample to judge.
KTB verdict
Arabian Dusk is the KTB Selection and looks to have the best blend of proven ability, trainer form at the track and a run-style that could be perfectly suited to the expected strong pace. Her consistent placed efforts this year, return to a winning trip and the addition of first-time headgear from a yard with a 30% strike rate at Pontefract all point to her being the one to beat. The main dangers are headed by Royal Fixation, who brings smart form and two wins at the trip, and America Queen, whose consistency, good draw and yard record at the venue make her a serious threat. Dash Of Azure and Magic Basma, both hold-up types with placed form at the trip, add further depth to what looks a competitive Listed event.
KTB Selection Arabian Dusk
This is the narrative read of the 4:45 Pontefract. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Pontefract racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is the KTB Selection and what is its Fit Score?
Arabian Dusk is the KTB Selection with a Fit Score of 68.
How many front-runners are likely to ensure a strong pace?
Two or more habitual front-runners are present, making a strong pace likely with high confidence.
Which horse has a course and distance second on its record?
Magic Basma finished a clear second over course and distance on her only previous visit here.
What is the trainer strike rate at Pontefract for the yard of the selection?
Simon & Ed Crisford have a 30% strike rate at Pontefract from 27 runs.
Which runners are wearing first-time headgear?
Arabian Dusk, Royal Fixation and Brazilian Rose are all wearing first-time headgear.
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