5:45 Pontefract
This Class 2 handicap over the minimum trip at Pontefract brings together eight sprinters on good to firm ground, with the KTB numbers highlighting a competitive but rather open-looking field. Badri heads the Fit ratings on 74 while three others sit between 51 and 67, suggesting the principals hold the key. The race features a pronounced pace advantage for the lone front-runner, and several runners arrive in decent recent form or with course knowledge.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape is a lone leader with high confidence, meaning Baker Blue is expected to bowl along in front with little to no pressure from the others. Most of the principals and field runners are held-up types who will be sitting towards the rear and looking to come with a late run. This sets up a race where the key question is whether the uncontested leader can get away and prove hard to peg back on this sharp track, or whether the closers have enough in reserve to close the gap in the final furlong.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Badri KTB Selection74/100Badri is a useful performer who has won three of his four starts at Pontefract and arrives in strong recent form with three wins from his last four outings.
- 2Rocking Ends67/100Useful performer who has won eight times over this trip and handles good to firm ground well with six wins from 19 starts.
- 3Fluorescence61/100Fluorescence is a useful performer who has won on good to firm and at this trip.
- 4One And Gone51/100Fair performer who has won twice this year including at this trip.
- 5Baker Blue50/100Baker Blue is a useful performer who has shown consistent ability in competitive company this year.
- 6Vintage Clarets45/100Vintage Clarets is a fair performer who has been placed in two of his last three starts and holds a solid record at this trip with seven wins from 48 attempts.
- 7Reigning Profit45/100Reigning Profit is a fair performer who has won twice at Pontefract from eight runs and also holds a solid record on good to firm ground with two wins and four…
- 8Kylian44/100Kylian is a useful performer on his day but arrives in poor form having failed to place in any of his last six starts.
The contenders
Badri KTB Fit 74/100
Badri is a useful performer who has won three of his four starts at Pontefract and arrives in strong recent form with three wins from his last four outings. He has a solid record on good to firm ground with four wins from ten starts and has won at this trip in the past, though he is now dropping back from 6f. The yard holds a 15% strike rate here from 39 runs with an A/E of 1.27. Jason Hart teams up with the trainer who show a combined 20/111 record and A/E 1.38. Usually held up, he produces his effort late from draw 1 and his recent form figures of 171110 underline his current competitiveness.
Rocking Ends KTB Fit 67/100
Rocking Ends is a useful performer who has won eight times over this trip and handles good to firm ground well with six wins from 19 starts. This is his first run at Pontefract but that looks neutral given his overall record and the trainer's solid 20 percent strike rate here from ten runs with an A/E of 1.09. First-time headgear is now added after a mixed bag of recent form that included a win and a seventh from figures of 645715. Tom Clover and Cieren Fallon combine with a 6/17 record and A/E 1.56 while the jockey has a 42% strike rate at the track from just twelve rides. Typically settling in midfield from draw 4, he has the ability to figure prominently if the headgear brings about improvement.
Fluorescence KTB Fit 61/100
Fluorescence is a useful performer who has won on good to firm and at this trip. Recent form has been patchy with a string of mid-pack finishes after an early-season setback, as shown by figures of 4-U493. The Bethell yard holds a solid 19 percent strike rate here from 69 runs with an A/E of 1.05. Oisin Orr is aboard for the first time at the track while the trainer-jockey combination shows 10/37 and A/E 1.36. Usually held up and producing his effort late from draw 2 with high confidence in that run-style, he will need to sharpen up on recent displays but remains capable at this level on his best day.
One And Gone KTB Fit 51/100
One And Gone is a fair performer who has won twice this year including at this trip from recent form of 340110. He steps up in class here and has shown little on good to firm so far with just one run yielding no win or place. This is his first visit to Pontefract. Ian Williams and Ryan Kavanagh team up with the trainer showing a 12% strike rate at the track from 115 runs and an A/E of 1. Usually held up with high confidence, he will be coming from the rear of the field and needs to improve on what he has shown in this company to date.
The rest of the field
Baker BlueKTB Fit 50/100
Baker Blue is a useful performer who has shown consistent ability in competitive company this year. He has run well at this track before, finishing second here on his only visit, and has also placed on good to firm ground from three starts. The yard's modest 7% strike rate at Pontefract is a slight negative though he arrives in reasonable form from figures of 410026 and has won over today's trip while stepping up in class.
Vintage ClaretsKTB Fit 45/100
Vintage Clarets is a fair performer who has been placed in two of his last three starts and holds a solid record at this trip with seven wins from 48 attempts. He has only run once at Pontefract and finished seventh while the yard's 14% strike rate from 22 runs here is modest. He has won once from six starts on good to firm ground from recent form of 070237.
Reigning ProfitKTB Fit 45/100
Reigning Profit is a fair performer who has won twice at Pontefract from eight runs and also holds a solid record on good to firm ground with two wins and four places from nine starts. He has won six times at this trip overall though his recent form has been patchy from figures of 046150 and he now tries headgear for the first time. The yard posts a 10 percent strike rate here from a large sample.
KylianKTB Fit 44/100
Kylian is a useful performer on his day but arrives in poor form having failed to place in any of his last six starts from figures of 070860. He has won at this trip and has gone well enough on good to firm ground in the past yet his record at Pontefract is modest and the trainer's 3% strike rate from 35 runs here is a clear negative. First-time headgear is now reached for.
KTB verdict
Badri stands out as the KTB Selection. He is a useful performer with a fine record at Pontefract, where he has won three of four starts, and his recent form of three wins from four outings marks him down as the one to beat dropping back to 5f. The yard's healthy strike rate at the track and his proven ability on good to firm ground add to the case. His main dangers are likely to be Rocking Ends, who brings strong sprint form and first-time headgear, and Fluorescence, who is another useful performer that could improve for the yard's record here. One And Gone and Baker Blue cannot be entirely dismissed if the race shape plays to their respective styles.
KTB Selection Badri
This is the narrative read of the 5:45 Pontefract. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Pontefract racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is expected to take the uncontested lead?
Baker Blue, whose run-style is front-runner with high confidence and who tends to make the running or race on the pace.
How many wins has Badri recorded at Pontefract?
Three wins from four starts.
Which runner is stepping up in class and making a first visit to Pontefract?
One And Gone, a fair performer who has won twice this year including at this trip.
What is the trainer's strike rate at Pontefract with Fluorescence?
19% strike rate from 69 runs with an A/E of 1.05.
Which horses are wearing first-time headgear?
Rocking Ends, Reigning Profit and Kylian.
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About the A/E figures in this preview. They are the data supplier’s: the winners a trainer or jockey had, divided by the winners the starting prices implied, over the runs in that record. Above 1.0 means more wins than the prices suggested. It is not KTB’s fair A/E, which allows for the bookmakers’ margin and the favourite–longshot bias, and the two are not comparable.
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