4:45 Lingfield (AW)
This Class 6 classified stakes division at Lingfield over 7f1y on standard going brings together a field of limited performers, most of whom have struggled to get their heads in front in recent times. The KTB Fit scores reflect a modest bunch overall, with the top-rated horse only reaching 58 and a cluster of runners in the mid-40s, underlining the lack of depth in a race where competitiveness on the surface and course records will be key. With the selection carrying first-time headgear on her Lingfield debut and several others also reaching for new headgear, the contest looks open but unconvincing on paper.
How the race shapes up
A strong pace is anticipated with high confidence, as two or more habitual front-runners are present in the shape of Coiled and Miraflores, both of whom tend to make the running or race prominently. Most of the principals and field runners are held-up types who produce their efforts late, setting up a race that could collapse late and play into the hands of those coming from off the pace. The key question is whether the early speed will overdo it on this surface, allowing the hold-up performers to pick up the pieces in the closing stages.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Mademoiselle Belle KTB Selection58/100Mademoiselle Belle is a limited filly who has been out of the frame on her last four starts and is now stepping up from 5f to an untried 7f.
- 2Zaltalla55/100Zaltalla is a limited performer who has been running to a consistent level of late, finishing in the first three in three of his last four starts.
- 3Victory Sound52/100Limited horse who has been placed without winning on this track and on today's surface.
- 4Raqraaq51/100Raqraaq is a limited performer who has been out of the frame on his last two starts and looks vulnerable from a mark that has crept upwards over the years.
- 5Hold The Press48/100Limited performer who has won once in 13 runs at this track and once at today's trip.
- 6Edergole's Gift47/100Limited performer who has won once from 12 starts at Lingfield and has two wins from 19 runs at this trip.
- 7Turpin47/100Limited performer who has shown nothing better than modest placed efforts in 12 starts.
- 8She's Crafty47/100Limited filly who has been consistent enough without winning in 13 starts.
- 9Maury41/100Limited performer who has won once over this trip and once at Lingfield.
- 10Dora Vita38/100Limited performer who has shown very little in ten starts and was well beaten on her only previous visit here.
- 11Coiled36/100Limited performer who has struggled for form this year with a string of poor efforts.
- 12Miraflores36/100Miraflores is a limited performer who has shown little spark this year and finished no better than sixth on her last four starts.
The contenders
Mademoiselle Belle KTB Fit 58/100
Mademoiselle Belle is a limited filly who has been out of the frame on her last four starts and is now stepping up from 5f to an untried 7f. She has shown some competitiveness on standard ground with four places from 14 runs yet remains winless after 23 starts overall. First-time headgear is tried as she makes her Lingfield debut. The trainer has a 50% strike rate at Lingfield (AW) with an A/E of 3.15 from two runs, while the jockey operates at an 11% strike rate here with an A/E of 0.73 from 253 rides. Her run-style is to be held up, usually producing her effort late with high confidence, and she is drawn in stall 2.
Zaltalla KTB Fit 55/100
Zaltalla is a limited performer who has been running to a consistent level of late, finishing in the first three in three of his last four starts. He has won over this trip in the past and has a solid record at Lingfield, including one victory from 13 runs here. The stable posts an 11% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 0.94 from 143 runs. The jockey has a 9% strike rate at Lingfield (AW) with an A/E of 0.75 from 1260 rides. He acts on standard ground with one win from 14 starts and six places, and his run-style is to be held up, usually producing his effort late with high confidence from draw 10.
Victory Sound KTB Fit 52/100
Victory Sound is a limited horse who has been placed without winning on this track and on today's surface. He has won over this trip but his recent form has been modest and the yard's strike-rate here is low at 7% with an A/E of 0.83 from 919 runs. The jockey has a 10% strike rate at Lingfield (AW) with an A/E of 0.97 from 411 rides. He has placed once from five runs on standard going and his three course efforts read third, seventh and tenth. Stall 1 could help him get a decent position early given his run-style is to be held up, usually producing his effort late with high confidence.
Raqraaq KTB Fit 51/100
Raqraaq is a limited performer who has been out of the frame on his last two starts and looks vulnerable from a mark that has crept upwards over the years. He has won twice at this track from 12 runs and holds a respectable record on standard going with two wins from 13 starts and five places. Dropping back from a mile to a trip where he has placed once in seven attempts without winning, first-time headgear is now tried. The yard has a 10% strike rate at Lingfield with an A/E of 0.88 from 542 runs, while the jockey has a 13% strike rate here with an A/E of 0.96 from 1644 rides. His run-style is to be held up, usually producing his effort late with high confidence from draw 6.
Hold The Press KTB Fit 48/100
Hold The Press is a limited performer who has won once in 13 runs at this track and once at today's trip. Recent form is poor and he has failed to trouble the judge in four of his last five starts. The trainer has a modest 8% strike-rate here from 1127 runs with an A/E of 0.79. The jockey has a 16% strike rate at Lingfield (AW) with an A/E of 0.92 from 280 rides. He has one win from 15 starts on standard going with four places overall, and his run-style is to be held up, usually producing his effort late with high confidence from draw 11.
The rest of the field
Edergole's GiftKTB Fit 47/100
Edergole's Gift is a limited performer who has won once from 12 starts at Lingfield and has two wins from 19 runs at this trip. Recent form has been modest with a string of mid-pack finishes and he now tries first-time headgear after stepping back up from 6f. The trainer has an 11% strike rate at the track from 591 runs with an A/E of 0.86 and the jockey has an 11% strike rate here with an A/E of 0.76 from 332 rides. He has two wins from 17 on standard with three places and his run-style is to be held up, usually producing his effort late with high confidence.
TurpinKTB Fit 47/100
Turpin is a limited performer who has shown nothing better than modest placed efforts in 12 starts. He has failed to place in two runs here over longer trips on this surface and is dropping back in distance today having been unsuccessful in four previous attempts at 7f. First-time headgear is reached for but the yard has a modest 9% strike-rate at the track with an A/E of 0.77 from 1213 runs. The jockey has an 11% strike rate here with an A/E of 1.02 from 76 rides, and his run-style is to be held up, usually producing his effort late with high confidence.
She's CraftyKTB Fit 47/100
She's Crafty is a limited filly who has been consistent enough without winning in 13 starts. She drops back to 7f having placed at the trip before and has shown she can be competitive on standard ground with one place from four runs. The yard has a 10% strike rate at Lingfield with an A/E of 0.83 from 369 runs while the jockey has a 17% strike rate here with an A/E of 1.00 from 808 rides. Her run-style is to be held up, usually producing her effort late with high confidence.
MauryKTB Fit 41/100
Maury is a limited performer who has won once over this trip and once at Lingfield from four runs. He has been out of form on his last three starts and looks vulnerable from a mark that still looks stiff enough. The trainer has a solid 13% strike-rate here with an A/E of 1.99 from 24 runs, though the jockey has a 5% strike rate at Lingfield with an A/E of 0.53 from 169 rides. He has one win from nine on standard with one place and his run-style is to be held up, usually producing his effort late with medium confidence.
Dora VitaKTB Fit 38/100
Dora Vita is a limited performer who has shown very little in ten starts and was well beaten on her only previous visit here when finishing 11th. The drop back from 1m2f to 7f asks a fresh question but she has already been tried at this trip five times without any success. The trainer has a modest 3% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 0.4 from 95 runs and the jockey has a 6% strike rate here with an A/E of 0.67 from 52 rides. She has no win or place from five runs on standard and her run-style is to be held up, usually producing her effort late with high confidence.
CoiledKTB Fit 36/100
Coiled is a limited performer who has struggled for form this year with a string of poor efforts. He steps up to 7f for the first time in a while having shown no spark over shorter, while this is his first run at Lingfield. The trainer operates at an 11% strike rate here from 44 runs with an A/E of 0.89 and the jockey has an 11% strike rate at Lingfield with an A/E of 1.09 from 164 rides. He has placed once from three runs on standard and his run-style is to front-run, tending to make the running or race on the pace with medium confidence.
MirafloresKTB Fit 36/100
Miraflores is a limited performer who has shown little spark this year and finished no better than sixth on her last four starts. She has been a regular at Lingfield without winning or placing in seven runs here and has also failed to trouble the judge in six starts on standard going. The trip looks about right on balance yet she still arrives with plenty to find. The trainer has a 5% strike rate at the track with an A/E of 0.71 from 76 runs and the jockey has an 8% strike rate here with an A/E of 0.6 from 64 rides. Her run-style is to front-run, tending to make the running or race on the pace with medium confidence.
KTB verdict
The race looks set to be fought out by the hold-up brigade if the strong pace materialises as expected. Mademoiselle Belle is the KTB Selection and, despite being limited and winless after 23 starts, she brings the highest Fit score of 58 along with the first-time headgear and the trainer's excellent 50% strike rate and 3.15 A/E at the venue from limited runners. Her competitiveness on the surface and late run-style fit the likely shape well from a low draw. The main dangers are Zaltalla, who has been consistently placing of late with a prior win over the trip and a victory at the track, and Victory Sound, who has placed here before and could benefit from stall 1.
KTB Selection Mademoiselle Belle
This is the narrative read of the 4:45 Lingfield (AW). For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Lingfield (AW) racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Which horse is making its Lingfield debut while trying first-time headgear?
Mademoiselle Belle
How many front-runners are expected to ensure a strong pace?
Two or more habitual front-runners
Which trainer has the highest strike rate at Lingfield (AW) among those represented?
Max Comley at 50%
Which horse has won twice at this track from 12 runs?
Raqraaq
Who has the best recent consistency among the principals with three placings in four starts?
Zaltalla
18+. Analysis and entertainment only — no guarantee of profit. KTB race previews are published for interest and are not betting advice. Only ever stake what you can comfortably afford to lose, and set your own limits. Free, confidential help: the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133 (GamCare.org.uk); in Ireland, the GamblingCare.ie helpline on 1800 936 725. Self-exclude at any time via GAMSTOP.
More from Kickthebookies