2:05 Carlisle
This Class 4 fillies’ novice at Carlisle over 5f182y on good ground brings together a field of seven juveniles where experience is at a premium. The KTB numbers highlight a clear top pick in Guadalevin, who stands out with a 64 Fit rating after four runs and two placings, while the remainder are bunched between 47 and 51 and largely unproven. With no obvious front-runner the race looks set to be tactical, and dropping in class could help several runners find a bit more.
How the race shapes up
The pace shape lacks a leader and points to a steadily-run, tactical affair in which being handy should pay dividends. Diamond New Bay is the most forward-going of the principals on her limited evidence, while Guadalevin and Oh So Slow Sloth prefer to be held up and produce their efforts late. Sara’s Silver Girl will likely settle in midfield. The key question is whether the lack of early pace allows the more experienced runners to time their challenges effectively or whether one of the newcomers can capitalise on a soft lead.
The KTB Fit ranking
- 1Guadalevin KTB Selection64/100Guadalevin has shown fair form across four runs, finishing placed twice including a solid third on this course last time.
- 2Diamond New Bay51/100Diamond New Bay showed fair pace when finishing fourth on debut over 7f.
- 3Sara's Silver Girl50/100Sara's Silver Girl has shown only modest form in two runs so far, finishing fifth then fourth without suggesting she is ahead of the average for this level.
- 4Oh So Slow Sloth49/100Oh So Slow Sloth has shown only modest form in two runs at this trip and now tries first-time headgear in a race where experience counts.
- 5Sayidah Bahra48/100Sayidah Bahra is a newcomer from the Kevin Ryan yard who has a solid 14 percent strike rate at Carlisle from a large sample.
- 6Ma Blushin Rosie47/100Ma Blushin Rosie is a debutant with very little known about her on the track.
- 7Angelic Melody47/100Angelic Melody is a newcomer with no racecourse experience.
The contenders
Guadalevin KTB Fit 64/100
Guadalevin brings the strongest form in the race having shown fair ability across four starts, finishing placed twice including a solid third over course and distance last time out. Dropping back from 7f to this untried 5f trip poses a fresh question, yet the yard’s 21% strike rate at Carlisle from 19 runs and the jockey’s 100% record here from a small sample are both positives. The trainer-jockey combination has produced a 15% strike rate overall with an A/E of 1.25 and healthy level-stakes profit. A held-up run style means he will need the race to fall right, but his experience and prior course form make him the one to beat. He is dropping in class and remains the clear KTB selection.
Diamond New Bay KTB Fit 51/100
Diamond New Bay showed fair pace when finishing fourth on debut over 7f and now drops back to this 5f trip, which asks a fresh question of the lightly-raced filly. The Burke yard posts a 20% strike rate at Carlisle from a large 382-run sample and the jockey has a 15% record here from 186 rides. Both trainer and jockey hold solid course figures, yet the combination’s overall record shows a 16% strike rate with an A/E of 0.90. Her prominent run style could be an asset in a race lacking an obvious leader, though she remains short of experience and unproven on good ground.
Sara's Silver Girl KTB Fit 50/100
Sara’s Silver Girl has shown only modest form in two starts so far, finishing fifth then fourth without suggesting she is ahead of the average for this level. Dropping back from 7f to this untried 5f trip asks another question of the filly who remains low-confidence given her limited experience. The Easterby yard and Billy Garritty both have solid records at Carlisle, the trainer on 12% from 82 runs and the jockey on 13% from 97 rides, yet their overall combination shows a 10% strike rate with an A/E of 0.87. She will settle in midfield and has one run on good ground without placing.
Oh So Slow Sloth KTB Fit 49/100
Oh So Slow Sloth has shown only modest form in two runs at this trip and now tries first-time headgear in a race where experience is likely to count. The Rebecca Menzies yard has a solid 12% strike rate at Carlisle from 259 runs while David Allan sits on an 11% record here from over 500 rides, though their overall figures read 9% with an A/E of 1.10. A held-up run style means she will be produced late, and with such a light career any firm conclusions are risky. She has one run on good ground without placing and remains towards the bottom of the KTB Fit ratings.
The rest of the field
Sayidah BahraKTB Fit 48/100
Sayidah Bahra is a newcomer from the Kevin Ryan yard, which has a solid 14% strike rate at Carlisle from 425 runs, though the jockey’s 7% record here from over 600 rides is more modest. Pedigree and sales background provide the only real clues to her ability at this stage.
Ma Blushin RosieKTB Fit 47/100
Ma Blushin Rosie is a debutant with very little known about her on the track. The yard has a modest 9% strike rate at Carlisle from 34 runs and the jockey is similarly placed on 9% from 159 rides here, leaving the assessment resting on pedigree and sales background.
Angelic MelodyKTB Fit 47/100
Angelic Melody is a newcomer with no racecourse experience. The yard has a solid 11% strike rate at Carlisle from 145 runs while the jockey has a 16% record here, so pedigree and sales background will decide whether she can go close on debut.
KTB verdict
Guadalevin stands out as the KTB selection. He has shown fair form in four runs with two placings, including a solid third over course and distance last time, and benefits from a yard that strikes at 21% at Carlisle. The drop to an untried 5f trip is the main unknown, yet his experience gives him the edge in a field short on it. Diamond New Bay, with her prominent style and fair debut effort, is the most obvious danger if she handles the shorter trip, while Sara’s Silver Girl and Oh So Slow Sloth bring modest form and limited confidence. The three newcomers add further unknowns to what should be a steadily-run tactical race.
KTB Selection Guadalevin
This is the narrative read of the 2:05 Carlisle. For the live card — runner-by-runner stats, the full Fit Score breakdown and current odds — see the Carlisle racecard. New here? How KTB works explains the Fit Score and why we publish both.
Questions about this race
Why is Guadalevin the KTB Selection?
He has shown fair form across four runs with two placings including a solid third on this course last time, the yard has a 21% strike rate at Carlisle, and the jockey is 100% here from one ride.
How does the lack of a leader affect the race?
It points to a steadily-run, tactical affair where being handy should pay dividends.
Which horses are dropping in class?
Guadalevin and Diamond New Bay are both dropping in class.
Who is most likely to race prominently?
Diamond New Bay is the most forward-going of the principals on her limited evidence.
Which runners are wearing headgear for the first time?
Oh So Slow Sloth is trying first-time headgear.
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